Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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385
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jun 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decayed to low levels with C-class flare activity
observed from Regions 3712 (S26W65, Ekc/beta-gamma), 3713 (S14W53,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta, 3716 (N10W59, Ekc/beta-gamma) and 3720 (S05E49,
Cao/beta). Region 3713 produced most of the C-class flare activity
observed this period and increased in size and spot count, and
maintained a complex magnetic field structure. Regions 3712 and 3716
remained largely unchanged from the previous period. New Regions 3721
(N27E59, Hsx/alpha) and 3722 (S09E59, Dso/beta) were numbered this
period. Region 3718 (N12, L=118) decayed to plage late in the period.

Other activity included a Type II radio sweep (Est. 590 km/s) that was
observed beginning at 21/2340 UTC and appeared to be associated with an
event around the Suns E limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in
available imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 22-24 Jun, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3 or greater).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels through 24 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 22-24 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
A nominal solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total
field ranged between 4-6 nT, the Bz component varied between +5/-3 nT
and wind speeds decreased from 450 km/s to 375 km/s. The phi angle was
positive.

.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind
conditions are likely over 22-23 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled over
22-23 Jun, with periods of active conditions likely on 22 Jun, due to
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet conditions are expected on 24
Jun.