886
FXXX12 KWNP 130031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to an impulsive C5.8/Sf observed
at 12/1720 UTC from Region 4521 (N09W93, Hsx/alpha). Regions 4521, 4524
(N12W54, Hrx/alpha), and 4430 (N19W49, Dao/beta) all produced a few
B-level enhancements as they moved closer to the western limb. All seven
of the numbered regions were either stable or reflected slight decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with C-class
flares likely and a slight chance of isolated low-level M-class flares
(R1-Minor) through 15 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 1,830 pfu observed at 12/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decline to low to
moderate levels on 13-14 Sep and increase to high levels on 15 Sep. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions remained near-background levels. Total field
strength varied between 1-8 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +4
to -6 nT, and solar wind speed averaged close to 400 km/s through the
period. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation except for a
roughly 4 hour period starting at 12/1614 UTC where it crossed into a
negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Negative CH HSS effects are anticipated to begin late on 13 Sep and last
through 15 Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with
potential an isolated active period, on 13 Sep as +CH HSS influence is
expected to continue. Late on 13 Sep, an anticipated SSBC ahead of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream is anticipated to begin
influencing the IMF, bringing unsettled to active levels on 14-15 Sep.