Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
629 FXXX12 KWNP 290031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 29 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4494 (S03W28, Cso/beta) produced a C5.1 flare at 28/0319 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 4495 (S02W39, Cro/beta) developed additional trailing spots, Region 4496 (N05E06, Cso/beta) underwent decay in its trailing spots and Region 4497 (S19W48, Axx/alpha) re-emerged as a simple, uni-polar spot. Region 4498 (N14E62, Cao/beta) tacked on a C1.4 flare at 28/1120 UTC and Region 4499 (N04E32, Dro/beta) developed rudimentary penumbra on both its leading and trailing poles. Although outside of the reporting period, it is worth noting that a CME was first seen in LASCO coronagraph imagery at approximately 27/2348 UTC. The source location of this event was likely a C3.3 flare from AR 4494 as evidenced by observed ejecta in GOES SUVI 304 imagery near 21/2249. Modeling of this event, when combined with CMEs from 26 and 27 July, indicated a relatively weak arrival signature at Earth on 01 Aug. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 31 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-19 spacecraft, returned to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels through 31 July and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 31 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated with indications of weak transient influence from what was likely passage of the 24 July CME. Total field increased to a peak of 8 nT, but varied as low as 3 nT. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly northward or near neutral with a few nominal southward deflections. Solar wind speed remained in the 360-410 km/s range and phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector. .Forecast... Additional enhancements are likely to begin on 30 July due to possibly combined positive polarity CH HSS and CME influences as events that left the Sun on 26 and 27 July pass the near-Earth environment. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 29 Jul as weak CME effects persist. Unsettled to active levels are likely again beginning late on 30 July, and carrying on into 31 July, with the arrival of the 26-27 Jul CMEs. Chances for G1 or greater activity on 30 and 31 July sit at 25%, but could become higher depending on both CME trajectory and strength of connectivity to the aforementioned positive polarity CH HSS. WSA-Enlil currently suggests the the latter may occur, weakly, however confidence in this outcome is only moderate at this time.