Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
584 FXXX12 KWNP 130031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4274 (N24W51, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for multiple low to mid level C-class flares. The largest was a C4.5/Sf at 12/1639 UTC. Slight decay was observed in Region 4274. Motion along the inversion lines was minimal within the group. The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be high, with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) expected and X-class (R3-Strong) activity likely on 13-15 Nov, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux started the period at high levels, with a maximum of 2,210 pfu at 12/0200 UTC, and returned to moderate levels shortly after 12/0540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux were elevated at S3 (Strong) through 12/0310 UTC and subsided to S2 (Moderate) levels thereafter. There was another initial increase at 12/0915 UTC due to a shock enhancement from the 11 Nov CME, however those levels are beginning to decrease. The greater than 100 MeV protons continued to decrease over the period and are currently near 2 pfu. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 13 Nov with a chance for high levels on 14-15 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above S2 (Moderate) levels through early on 13 Nov with S1 (Minor) levels continuing through 14 Nov. There is a chance for S1 levels to persist on 15 Nov. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to trend down and be below the 1 pfu threshold by early to midday on 13 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters began the period strongly enhanced from the arrival of the 09-10 Nov CMEs. Solar wind speeds were initially around 730 km/s before the instrument began to show signs of contamination and became unreliable until 12/1000 UTC. Total field reached a high of 63 nT at 12/0035 UTC with the Bz component reaching a maximum southward deflection of -52 nT. Total field continued around 18-43 nT thereafter with periods of southward Bz near -28 nT. Total field began to decrease after 12/1115 UTC until the arrival of the 11 Nov CME at 12/1853 UTC. Total field only had a lesser increase with the shock arrival to near 35-40 nT, however calculations of the arrival time between DSCOVR spacecraft and the sudden impulse observed at the magnetometers indicated a speed near 1,100 km/s. Total field decreased to near 20 nT with the Bz component mostly northward at the time of this report. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters is expected to continue to be enhanced on 13 Nov as CME activity persists. A slow rotation of the Bz component into a negative sector is likely on 13 Nov couple with enhanced solar wind speeds near 800-900 km/s. Activity is expected to gradually subside later on 13 Nov through 14 Nov. A return to near nominal levels is likely on 15 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at G1-G4 (Minor-Severe) storming levels due to activity associated with the arrival of the 09-11 Nov CMEs. Severe storm levels were observed during the 12/0000-0300 and 0300-0600 UTC periods. .Forecast... G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storm levels are expected through early to midday on 14 Nov depending on the orientation (negative Bz component) and magnitude (Bt) of the magnetic field coupled with higher solar wind speeds. A steady decrease in activity is likely through the latter half of 13 Nov and continuing through 14 Nov. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected by 15 Nov.