Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
954 FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Nov 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was very low in the past 24h. Region 4566 (S07E66, Cro/beta) was responsible for all the B-class flares of the period, with the largest one being a B7.7 at 02/0608 UTC. The other two active regions on disk, Region 4564 (N03E11, Hrx/alpha) and Region 4565 (N13E35, Hsx/alpha), were decaying or stable, respectively. A filament erupted around 01/1800 UTC and was associated with a CME observed propagating away from the W-limb in the first hours of the 02 Nov UTC day. Analysis of this CME indicates a weak glancing blow near-Earth late on 05 Nov. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over 05 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,480 pfu at 02/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels through 05 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 05 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued reflecting waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength was around 5 nT and the Bz (north-south) component oscillating between +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from 450 km/s levels down to 380 km/s at the end of the period. Phi angle oscillated during the day, settling in the positive sector (away from the Sun) after about 02/1800 UTC. .Forecast... The solar wind near-Earth is expected to reach undisturbed conditions on 03-04 Nov, as the ongoing positive polarity CH HSS influences diminish. Mild disturbances are anticipated on 05 Nov, as a small positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective and a weak glancing blow from 01 Nov CME is possible. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels in the past 24h due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels on 03-04 Nov as the ongoing positive polarity CH HSS influences vanish. Unsettled to active conditions are anticipated on 05 Nov as a response to influences of a small positive polarity CH HSS and the 01 Nov CME glancing blow near Earth.