966
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels with mostly lower level C-class
flare activity. Region 4455 (N15W82, Hsx/alpha) underwent decay and
remained relatively quiet. Region 4456 (N17W55, Dai/beta) underwent
minor decay as well. Regions 4462 (N15W02, Dsi/beta) and 4464 (S12E31,
Dai/beta) experienced growth as they gained additional spots and tacked
on C-class flares as well. New Region 4465 (N11E80, Dao/beta) was
numbered this period and produced the largest flare, a C7.2 at 08/0249
UTC.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
A chance for isolated M-class flare activity (55%) will persist through
10 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456,
4458 (S05W69, Dso/beta), 4462 and 4465 alongside the flare history of
Region 4455.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 2,874 pfu at 07/1540 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced due to the eruption
from the M1.8 flare event on 06 June, but was well below the S1 (Minor)
radiation storm threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to return to normal to moderate levels on 08 June with the
arrival of the 06 June CME. 2 MeV electron flux levels are likely to
return to high levels by the close of 09 June and continue at high
levels through 10 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background levels with a chance for an S1 (Minor) event on
08 June with the shock arrival of the 06 June CME.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Total field primarily ranged 4-5 nT and the Bz component was +/- 4 nT.
Solar wind speeds peaked at approximately 589 km/s, but overall
gradually declined to about 475 km/s.

.Forecast...
A disturbed and enhanced solar wind environment is expected by early to
mid UTC-day on 08 June with the shock arrival from the 06 June CME
bringing enhanced magnetic field and faster solar wind. These
enhancements are anticipated to continue into 09 June before gradually
diminishing through 10 June.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely to begin by mid
UTC-day on 08 June with the arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 06
June. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely during the latter half
of 08 June, but this outcome is dependent upon how much the CME has
expanded into the Sun-Earth line as the model indicates a bulk of the
material to be mostly south and east of Earth. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
geomagnetic storming is likely to linger into the early portions of 09
June before giving way to unsettled to active conditions that carry into
10 June.