Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
010 FXXX12 KWNP 310031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate levels (R1-Minor). Region 4197 (S18W10, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.3 flare at 30/1409 UTC and an M1.2 flare at 30/1559 UTC. This region developed additional intermediate spots and had some areal growth. Region 4199 (N04E05, Cai/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a long-duration M2.7 flare at 30/2002 UTC. New Region 4207 (N30E69, Hax/alpha) was numbered. Additional spots are visible behind this region, so reclassification is expected as it rotates further onto the visible disk. The remaining regions were stable. An asymmetric full halo CME was first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at approximately 30/2030 UTC. This event is likely associated with the long-duration M2.7 flare mentioned earlier. Analysis is currently underway, but initial indications point towards this event being Earth-directed. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 02 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated, but continued a gradual decline toward background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 31 Aug-02 Sep. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 02 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 10 nT, and the Bz component varied between +8/-6 nT. Solar wind speed was steady, ranging between ~350-425 km/s. The phi orientation was mostly negative. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced conditions are expected on 31 Aug-01 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. A return to more nominal conditions are expected on 02 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Aug-01 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 02 Sep as CH HSS influence decay.