Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
384 FXXX12 KWNP 060031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate levels this period. Plage Region 4520 (S12, L=340) produced an M1.0/1f (R1-Minor) flare at 05/1518 UTC. Associated with this flare were 10 MeV (S1-Minor) and 100 MeV proton events. A further description of these proton events are highlighted below. Late in August, Region 4520 was classified as a D-type spot group, but decayed to plage on 03 Sep. Other flare activity consisted of C-class flares observed from Region 4524 (N12E40, Cso/beta), the largest a C8.5/2n event at 05/1746 UTC. This region lost a few trailing spots over the last 24 hrs. The remaining regions on the disk were quiet and stable. Two new regions were observed on the east limb near N11 and S11, but were not numbered. Several CMEs were observed this period. First, a CME associated with the M1.0 flare from Plage Region 4520 first became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1536 UTC and in STEREO coronagraph imagery as a halo at 05/1608 UTC. Modeling suggests that this eruption will pass ahead of Earths orbit. Second, a CME associated with the C8.5 first became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1800 UTC and in STEREO coronagraph imagery at 05/1808 UTC. Third, a CME associated with a C6.4 from Region 4524 at 05/1045 UTC first became visible in LASCO C2 at roughly 05/1112 UTC and in STEREO coronagraph imagery at 05/1108 UTC. Lastly, a filament just SE of disk center started erupting around 05/0530 UTC and an associated structure became visible in STEREO coronagraph imagery at 05/0638 UTC and very faintly in LASCO C2 at roughly 05/0825 UTC. Modeling suggests a possible combined arrival for these eruptions on early 08 Sep. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely be at low levels due to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 08 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decayed to normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV (S1-Minor) proton flux began rising at 05/1530 UTC and exceeded the 10 pfu event level at 05/1645 UTC with a peak flux of 17.8 pfu observed at 05/1645 UTC. Levels remained elevated around the threshold by the end of the reporting period. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux began rising at 05/1530 UTC and also exceeded their 1 pfu event level at 05/1550 UTC, reaching a max of 1.16 pfu at 05/1550 UTC. Levels decayed below the 1 pfu levels at 05/1616 UTC and ended the period at roughly background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on 06-08 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above, or near, the 10 pfu level through early 06 Sep. Levels are expected to slowly decay to background levels continue at background levels through 07-08 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field averaged near 6 nT, while Bz experienced weak southward deviations to -5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained at about 350 km/s, and briefly peaked to 372 km/s at 05/1618 UTC. Phi was predominantly negative with isolated oscillations into a positive orientation. benign .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to remain near background levels through 06 Sep. Enhancements due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) are anticipated by late on 06 Sep to early 07 Sep. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels this period. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail through 06 Sep. Isolated unsettled conditions are likely by late on 06 Sep with unsettled to periodic active levels on 07 and 08 Sep due to aforementioned SSBC effects.