Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
908 FXXX12 KWNP 030051 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 03 0050 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4197 (S18W52, Eho/beta-gamma) grew slightly in length as it exhibited decay primarily in its intermediate spots. Region 4199 (N04W36, Cao/beta) continued to exhibit a minor decaying trend as well while producing C-class flares, the largest of which was a C6.2 flare at 02/1451 UTC. Regions 4210 (N09E54, Cro/beta) and 4211 (S13E71, Hsx/alpha) were numbered this period with the latter showing signs of evolution as its leading spot gained maturing penumbra. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 05 Sep primarily due to the flare potential exhibited from AR 4197. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased from a peak of 1.56 pfu to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to to be at normal to moderate levels through 05 Sep with a chance for high levels on 03 Sep. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event reaching the S1 (Minor) levels through 05 Sep with a large event from AR 4197 being the most likely threat. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions reflected CME arrival and passage from the 30 Aug event. Total field reached a peak of 25 nT just after shock arrival and then a peak of 24 nT with the arrival of the magnetic cloud of the CME. The Bz component was mostly northward, but then began to rotate southward during the magnetic cloud phase, reaching -15 nT. Phi rotated between solar sectors. .Forecast... Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected to continue through 03 Sep due to CME influences before beginning a waning trend by 04 Sep. An additional enhancement is anticipated on 05 Sep due CIR arrival ahead of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods early and then again late in the period. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on 03 Sep with a chance for an early, isolated G2 (Moderate) period due to continued CME effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 04 Sep as any lingering CME effects end. Unsettled to active levels are then expected on 05 Sep due to CIR arrival in advance of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.