Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
778 FXXX12 KWNP 021231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 02 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels the past 24h. Region 4545 (N20E53, Cro/beta) produced a C1.4 flare at 01/2137 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Region 4544 (S09, L0=325) became a spotless plage region and the decaying Region 4535 (N12W76, Hsx/alpha) produced a B7.8 flare at 01/1308 UTC. No Earth-directed CME was observed in the coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at very low levels with a chance for C-flares and a slight chance for an M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 04 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of 2,550 pfu at 01/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 02 Oct, before decreasing to moderate levels on 03-04 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 04 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued reflecting ambient conditions with a speed around 300 km/s, a total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength below 7 nT, and Bz component oscillating between -5 and 6 nT. The Phi angle remained predominately positive during the past 24h. .Forecast... Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through midday on 02 Oct, when disturbances caused by flanking influences from a CME that left the Sun on 28 Sep are likely to be observed. On 03-04 Oct, solar wind enhancements are likely to persist as CME effects wane and positive polarity CH HSS influences increase. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field remained quiet during the past 24h. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels through midday on 02 Oct, when G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely following the anticipated arrival of the 28 Sep CME. Periods of active conditions are likely on 03 Oct as CME impacts wane and positive CH HSS influences begin late in the day. Therefore, periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely to return on 04 Oct.