Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
851 FXXX12 KWNP 160031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to multiple M-class flares. Region 4105 (S14W84, Dso/beta) produced an M2.2/1n flare at 15/0756 UTC with an associated Type II (450 km/s) radio sweep and a CME off the W limb at 15/0812 UTC. Subsequent modelling showed no Earth-directed component. Region 4105 also produced an M1.9/Sf at 15/1047 UTC. Region 4114 (N17E12, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M8.4 flare at 15/1807 UTC, the largest of the period. Associated with the flare were multi-frequency radio bursts, Castelli U signature, an 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II (397 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, and a CME off the N limb at 15/1824 UTC. CME analyses suggests the bulk of the CME will pass north of the ecliptic, however, it is possible that well see shock passage on 18 Jun. Region 4105 appeared to be in a decay phase as it approached the SW limb. Region 4114 grew both in area and magnetic complexity as the spots began to coalesce and form a delta. The magnetic inversion line appears to be in a mostly East-West orientation through the center which can lead to further magnetic shear. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong) on 16-18 Jun. Regions 4114 and 4105 are the most likely source regions for elevated flaring activity. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 16-18 Jun due to HSS influence. Proton prediction model output of the M8.4 flare determined there was a chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels in the coming hours. If the enhancement materializes, proton levels are likely to be enhanced through at least 16 Jun, decreasing to a chance for S1 levels on 17-18 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 5-8 nT while the Bz component was between +7/-6 nT. Solar wind speed was elevated between 454-596 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... HSS conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period (16-18 Jun) with variations in solar wind speed. An increase in speed is possible later on 16 June when there is a better connection with the HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... HSS activity is expected to cause unsettled to active periods on 16-17 Jun, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm periods possible on 16 Jun. Periods of active conditions are possible on 18 Jun due to the anticipated passage of an interplanetary shock associated with the 15 Jun CME (M8.4 flare at 15/1807 UTC).