Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
829 FXXX12 KWNP 251231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jun 25 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 4117 (S14W24, Dso/beta) and 4118 (S12W14, Cai/beta) produced low level C-class flares, the largest of which was a C3.1 flare at 24/1545 UTC. Region 4118, along with 4120 (N06W17, Bxo/beta), exhibited decay while Region 4121 (S12E04, Dro/beta) developed rudimentary penumbra on both poles. New Region 4122 (N13E64, Cso/beta) was numbered and contributed C-class activity. A narrow CME, likely associated with minor flaring from Regions 4117 and 4118 between 1439 UTC and 1524 UTC, was first seen in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 24/1624 UTC. Initial modeling indicated a miss south and behind Earths orbit. However, it should be noted that analysis of this event is low confidence given the assumed source location. .Forecast... A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), will persist through 27 June. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,370 pfu at 24/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels through 26 June before likely returning to high levels on 27 June due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 27 June. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a solar sector boundary crossing to the negative solar sector. Total field increased to 5-9 nT, and the Bz component remained between +5/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between ~400 km/s to ~450 km/s. Phi angle was mostly negative, with a few instances of variability. .Forecast... An enhanced solar wind regime is expected for 25 June, continuing through 27 June due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely 25-26 June due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS effects. Primarily unsettled to active conditions are expected on 27 June as CH HSS effects begin to wane.