Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
745 FXXX12 KWNP 061231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Sep 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels following an M1.0/1f (R1-Minor) flare at 05/1518 UTC from an area of plage (formerly Region 4520 (S12, L=340)). Associated with this flare were 10 MeV (S1-Minor) and 100 MeV proton events. A further description of these proton events are highlighted below. Other flare activity consisted of C-class flares observed from Region 4524 (N12E40, Cso/beta), the three largest being a C6.4/1n at 05/1045 UTC, a C8.5/2n event at 05/1746 UTC and a C5.0/1n at 06/1042 UTC. This region continued to exhibit weak decay, while the remaining existing regions on the disk were quiet and stable. Two new regions were observed rotating onto the visible disk from the east limb and were numbered as Region 4528 (S12E76, Hsx/alpha) and 4529 (N11E73, Hsx/alpha). Both were stable and inactive during the period. Several CMEs were observed this period. First, a filament just SE of disk center started erupting around 05/0530 UTC and an associated structure became visible in STEREO coronagraph imagery at 05/0638 UTC and very faintly in LASCO C2 at roughly 05/0825 UTC. Second, a CME associated with the C6.4 from Region 4524 at 05/1045 UTC first became visible in LASCO C2 at roughly 05/1112 UTC and in STEREO coronagraph imagery at 05/1108 UTC. Third, a CME associated with the M1.0 flare from Plage Region 4520 first became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1536 UTC and in STEREO coronagraph imagery as a halo at 05/1608 UTC. Modeling suggests that this eruption will pass ahead of Earths orbit. Lastly, a CME associated with the C8.5 first became visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1800 UTC and in STEREO coronagraph imagery at 05/1808 UTC. Modeling suggests a possible combined arrival for these eruptions on early 08 Sep. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely be at low levels due to occasional C-class flare activity, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 08 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV (S1-Minor) proton flux began rising at 05/1530 UTC and exceeded the 10 pfu event level at 05/1615 UTC with a peak flux of 17.8 pfu observed at 05/1645 UTC. Levels remained elevated but continued to diminish at the end of the reporting period. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux began rising at 05/1530 UTC and also exceeded the 1 pfu event threshold at 05/1545 UTC, reaching a max of 1.16 pfu at 05/1550 UTC. Levels decayed below the 1 pfu levels at 05/1615 UTC and ended the period near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 06-08 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue decreasing towards background levels through early 08 Sep. Levels could increase back up to equal or exceed threshold levels by midday on 08 Sep if the anticipated CMEs impact Earth. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field averaged near 6 nT, Bz fluctuated between +/-5 nT, and solar wind speeds averaged around 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative with isolated oscillations into a positive orientation. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to remain near background levels through 06 Sep. Enhancements due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) are anticipated by late on 06 Sep to early 07 Sep. Further enhancements are possible on 08 Sep with the anticipated arrival of the multitude of CMEs from the past couple of days combined with the onset of the CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet levels are expected to prevail through 06 Sep. Isolated unsettled conditions are likely by late on 06 Sep with unsettled to periodic active levels on 07 Sep due to aforementioned SSBC effects. Unsettled to active levels are then expected on 08 Sep, with isolated G1 (Minor) periods likely if the CMEs mentioned above impact Earth as forecast. Confidence is low on the timing and magnitude of the CME arrivals.