Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
746 FXXX12 KWNP 051231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with occasional low-level C-class flaring. The largest flare of the period was a C1.6 from Region 4502 (S07W39, Dao/beta) at 05/0622 UTC. There are six numbered regions on the visible disk. Regions 4498 (N15W43, Cso/beta) and 4499 (N04W78, Dao/beta) exhibited decay in their trailing spots while Region 4502 continued to simplify and consolidate particularly in its leading spots. Region 4501 (S07W80, Cso/beta) exhibited gradual decay in its trailing spots and produced a C1.1 flare at 04/1534 UTC. Region 4503 (S17E52, Cro/beta) produced the only other C-class flare at 04/1408 UTC, which was a C1.0. Two eruptions of note were observed during the reporting period. The first was first observed to the southeast in GOES-19 CCOR-1 imagery at approximately 04/1400 UTC and the second to the northwest near 04/1415 UTC. A clear source could not be determined with any tangible confidence for the first narrow, southeasterly event, but best measurement efforts suggest the vicinity of S35E22. The second CME was mostly likely the result of an eruption that took place just northeast of Regions 4498 and 4500 as evidenced by GOES-19 SUVI 304 imagery beginning at approximately 04/1230 UTC. However, this event may be complicated by a simultaneous eruption from the western limb which can be seen as opening field lines and movement in GOES-19 SUVI 195 imagery beginning around the same time. Additionally, a LASCO coronagraph imagery outage began at 04/0624 UTC and continued until 04/2024 UTC which further complicated analysis. Never the less, modeling efforts suggest that these CMEs may glance Earth on 09 Aug. However, confidence is lower end in this outcome given the circumstances. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares 05-07 Aug, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 4498, 4499, and 4502. Probabilities decrease slightly by 07 Aug as Regions 4599 and 4501 depart the western limb. Current Solar Orbiter HMI imagery suggests no significant returning regions during the forecast period. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels through 07 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 05-07 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected a general return to ambient levels following previous CME influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) remained below 5 nT and the north/south (Bz) component of the IMF was near neutral and mostly northward. Solar wind speeds underwent a gradual decrease from ~450 km/s to ~365 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue toward a slow wind regime until early to mid-day on 07 Aug, when enhancements associated with CMEs that departed the Sun on 03 Aug arrive. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was quiet. .Forecast... Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet over 05-06 Aug. Active conditions with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming or greater are likely on 07 Aug in response to CME effects.