Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
058 FXXX12 KWNP 081231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 4366 (N14W52, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.8 flare (R1/Minor) at 08/1118 UTC, followed by an M1.7 flare at 08/1143 UTC. The region remained the largest and most complex on the disk, but exhibited signs of decay especially among the intermediate spots. New spots emerged in Region 4363 (S26W53, Bxo/beta), and the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong or greater) over 08-10 Feb, primarily due to the eruptive potential of Region 4366. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 2,062 pfu observed at 07/1855 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 08-10 Feb. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 08-10 Feb due to the eruptive potential and location of Region 4366. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained mildly enhanced this period under negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength values remained steady near 6-8 nT, with the Bz component ranging between +/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady at around 450 km/s throughout the period. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is likely to become further enhanced over 08-10 Feb following the anticipated arrival of a CME (from 03 Feb), combined with continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 08 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME (from 03 Feb), in combination with continued negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 09 Feb as waning CME effects persist with ongoing negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 10 Feb due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences.