Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
316 FXXX12 KWNP 031231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Sep 03 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 4197 (S18W57, Eho/beta-gamma) and 4210 (N08E48, Dao/beta) produced the majority of the C-class flares. Region 4199 (N04W42, Cso/beta) produced the largest flare; a C6.1 at 02/1452 UTC. Slight decay was observed in Region 4197. New spots emerged in the northern portion of Region 4199. Slight growth occurred in Region 4210. Other activity included an approximate 37 degree filament eruption centered near N18W42 at 03/0030 UTC observed in SUVI 304 imagery. Initial modelling of the event showed no Earth-directed component. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or greater), through 05 Sep primarily due to the flare potential exhibited from AR 4197. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to to be at normal to moderate levels through 05 Sep. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event reaching the S1 (Minor) levels through 05 Sep with a large event from AR 4197 being the most likely threat. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under CME effects. Total field reached a peak of 23 nT at 02/1517 UTC before gradually decreasing to near 10 nT. The Bz component ranged from +13 to -17 nT. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 600 km/s to near 490 km/s. Phi angle switched from negative to positive at 02/1847 UTC. .Forecast... Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected to continue through 03 Sep due to CME influences before beginning a waning trend by 04 Sep. An additional enhancement is anticipated on 05 Sep due to CIR arrival ahead of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to persistent CME effects. .Forecast... Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on 03 Sep due to continued CME effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 04 Sep as any lingering CME effects end. Unsettled to active levels are then expected on 05 Sep due to CIR arrival in advance of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.