Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
064 FXXX12 KWNP 221231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 22 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4291 (S14E71, Dao/beta) produced an impulsive C4.8 flare at 22/1146 UTC, the strongest of the period. The region fully rotated into view with penumbra observed on both its leader and trailer spots. The remaining numbered active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. Other activity included a filament eruption near the SE limb beginning around 21/1940 UTC. LASCO-SOHO C2 imagery detected a narrow CME off the SE, first visible at 21/2112 UTC. Analysis and modelling of the event suggested the ejecta would pass far south of the Sun-Earth line. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over 22-24 Nov, with a slight chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) as the active regions rotating on the disk in the East contribute their flare potential. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate levels through 24 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in expected to remain at background levels through 24 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 11 nT before slowly decreasing to ~5-8 nT near the end of the reporting period. The Bz component briefly reached as far south -7 nT early in the period but rotated predominantly northward after. Solar wind speeds varied between ~400-500 km/s. .Forecast... Minor enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely to wane, over 22 Nov due primarily to diminishing coronal hole effects. Mostly nominal conditions are likely for 23-24 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 Nov as weak solar wind enhancements diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 23-24 Nov as nominal solar wind conditions return.