Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
658 FXXX12 KWNP 070031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jun 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.8/2N flare from Region 4461 (S21E18, Cro/beta), which was the largest of the period. Region 4456 (N18W34, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for a C8.8 flare at 06/1318 UTC as it continued to undergo evolution, gaining additional spots with asymmetric penumbra and a relatively weak delta signature in its intermediate area. New spots just north of Region 4462 (N16E19, Dai/beta) formed, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await corroborating solar observatory reports. The aforementioned M1.9/2N flare resulted in a F10.7 cm radio burst measuring 190 sfu, an approximately 11 degree-long filament eruption centered near S25E28, and a type-II sweep with an estimated speed of 838 km/s. The resulting partial halo CME, first seen in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 06/1401 UTC, is anticipated to arrive around midday on 08 June. .Forecast... A chance for isolated M-class flare activity (55%) will persist through 09 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456, 4458 and 4462 alongside the flare history of Region 4455. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,280 pfu at 06/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced just after 06/1515 UTC due to the eruption from the M1.8 flare event. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels through 07 June before returning to normal to moderate levels on 08 June with the arrival of the 06 June CME. 2 MeV electron flux levels are likely to return to high levels by the close of 09 June. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a chance for an S1 (Minor) event on 08 June with the shock arrival of the 06 June CME. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME and possible weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field decreased to 4-5 nT and the Bz component was mostly benign with only brief southward deflections reaching -5 to -6 nT early in the reporting period. Solar wind speeds mostly averaged between 550 km/s to 650 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Current solar wind conditions are expected to continue to wane over the course of 07 June. A disturbed solar wind environment is expected to return by early to mid UTC-day on 08 June with the shock arrival from the 06 June CME bringing enhanced magnetic field and much faster solar wind speeds. The enhancements are anticipated to continue into 09 June with a waning trend beginning by mid UTC-day. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 07 June under the current solar wind regime. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate), with isolated periods of G3 (Strong), geomagnetic storming are likely to begin by mid UTC-day on 08 June with the arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 06 June. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to linger into the early portions of 09 June before giving way to unsettled to active conditions.