778
FXUS63 KDLH 190541
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1141 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday through Thursday
  afternoon. Rain is the most likely precipitation type, but a
  wintry mix cannot be ruled out in far northern Minnesota.

- An active pattern may develop early next week with a colder
  than normal airmass moving into central US mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A surface high pressure to mid-level broad ridge axis exits the
the Upper Midwest tonight as a Canadian Plains shortwave moves
through the Northern Plains. A weak moisture tap along
southwesterly pre-trough flow combines with a few vorticity
maxima to produce increasing precipitation chances late tonight
first in far north-central Minnesota. Dry low-levels at the
start of this precip tomorrow morning and highly localized
forcing highly limits precipitation amounts into the Wednesday
morning hours...still restricted to the Borderlands region.
Temperatures forecast in the low-30s northern Koochiching County
in this time period of a couple of hours either side of sunrise
tomorrow keeps a very slight (10-15%) chance of a Trace of
freezing rain in the greater International Falls, MN region
Wednesday morning.

Temperatures increase Wednesday mid to late morning to negate
any additional freezing rain chances with all precipitation
types expected to be rain and a mix of rain/snow in the
Arrowhead. This primarily rain, but wintry mix, snow chances
spread into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday
evening as the trough moves through northwest Minnesota. The
frontal passage moves through the region Thursday morning and
quickly decrease precip chances Thursday mid-day. A post-frontal
cooler airmass keeps temperatures though above normal, high
temperatures in the low to mid-40s much of this week.

Global ensemble guidance keeps confidence moderate to high on a
more active weather pattern beginning early to mid-next week as
deep troughing is likely to setup in the central U.S. A cooler
than normal airmass is likely to drop southeastward into Upper
Midwest mid-next week. Any precipitation chances in the area
though are only low confidence as the track any system(s) will
continue to be assessed in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the overnight hours
with some mid-level clouds starting to move overhead from the
west. Expect MVFR cloud cover and rain to start spreading in
from the west during the morning, starting first at INL and then
spreading south and east late morning and afternoon. Can`t rule
out some light freezing rain and perhaps very light snow mixing
in at INL during the 12-15Z timeframe, but dry air in the low
levels initially and temperatures right around freezing there
lead to low confidence (20%) in freezing rain being seen there.
There is also still a low-chance signal (20-30%) for some LIFR
to IFR fog and low ceilings to move from the south into BRD and
DLH in the 12-16Z timeframe this morning, with higher confidence
in fog potential at HYR in that window where a TEMPO group has
been included. Will continue to monitor observation and forecast
trends for this fog as morning approaches, as amendments may be
needed. Winds remain light and variable to calm overnight and
then turn southerly after sunrise at 5-10 kt with occasional
daytime gusts of 12-17 kt.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Light winds will continue into Wednesday morning ahead of a
passing front Wednesday night. That frontal boundary over the
MN/ON/Lake Superior region tomorrow is forecast to create gusty
southwest winds over the far North Shore Wednesday evening into
Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed in time for the
Grand Marais to Grand Portage zone beginning Wednesday late PM.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...NLy