582
FXUS63 KDLH 060531
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1131 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A secondary cold front brings another round of low-impact, light
  snow tonight into early Saturday, mainly impacting the Iron
  Range and the Arrowhead.

- Arctic air settles in this weekend, bringing another round of
  temperatures lows in the low teens below zero and highs in
  the single digits to low teens above zero.

- A series of weather systems will cross the region next week,
  with the potential for more impactful snowfall totals arriving
  Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The Northland will see the tail end of a passing weather system
today. Patches of freezing drizzle have been noted in the Twin
Ports and may persist in spots this afternoon, which could lead
to travel hazards primarily northwest Wisconsin through the
afternoon and early evening. Light snow will also persist along
our southern area, through the late afternoon. Any accumulation
is expected to be minimal, generally less than an inch, but
slick spots are possible especially where freezing drizzle falls.
Additionally, patches of freezing drizzle have been noted in
the Twin Ports and may persist in spots this afternoon, which
could add to the travel hazard. This evening and tonight, a
secondary cold front pushes through, causing a second round of
light snow to develop across the northern half of the region,
including the Arrowhead. Lake effect snow is expected to focus
on Iron County as an arctic air mass moves into the region,
where another one to two inches of accumulation is possible
before all activity ends early Saturday morning.

The main story for the weekend is the arrival of a much colder air
mass. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be frigid, ranging
from -5 to 5 degrees. The cold persists into the weekend with highs
struggling to reach the single digits and teens. We expect dry
conditions for most of Saturday and Sunday, though a weak
disturbance passing well to our south on Saturday might clip our
southern border with a few very light snow flurries with little
to no accumulation or impacts expected. This pattern of
northwest flow will keep temperatures below normal through the
start of next week.

The next week looks active with multiple chances for snow. A system
is forecast for Monday into Monday night, but current forecast
guidance suggests limited impacts due to less favorable
conditions from limited frontogenesis and mid and upper level
forcing and high lapse rates being offset from each other, with
less than three inches of total snowfall anticipated for the
area. Attention then turns to a stronger Alberta Clipper system
that is forecast to track across the Northern Plains and into
the Northland Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast models show this
as a more potent weather maker with better ingredients for
heavier snow, including plenty of forcing and frontogenesis, so
this is the system we will be watching closely for the
potential of higher, more impactful snow totals. Temperatures
will briefly warm up on Tuesday ahead of the main system before
more frigid air arrives again on Wednesday, dropping
temperatures back well below normal for the remainder of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

MVFR ceilings still largely encompass most of the region. Satellite
does show some clearing skies along the International Border with a
trend towards the southeast. Radar is also still picking up on a
some light snow showers under the cloud deck. Models are really
struggling with cloud cover for Saturday so confidence is a little
low as to how these ceilings will play out. For now, we expect a
return to VFR conditions, clouds are not expected to fully clear out
but we think the coverage will be more SCT than BKN. High res
guidance suggests the highest density of MVFR clouds will be along
the International Border, through the Arrowhead and into NW WI
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Westerly winds over Western Lake Superior will decrease
slightly through the afternoon before becoming northwesterly and
increasing tonight. Winds are forecast to be 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 28 knots, leading to hazardous conditions for
small craft, especially along the South Shore and northern
portions of the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for these areas of nearshore waters through Saturday
morning. Winds will then diminish on Saturday and remain 10-15
kts through Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121-
     145>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140-141-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...KML