865
FXUS63 KDLH 280640
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
140 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall across the Northland for Monday night
  into Tuesday.

- Temperatures trend cooler over the latter half of the week.

- Frost and freeze potential returning Thursday night into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Dense fog is ongoing early this morning across much of the
Northland, leading to drastically reduced visibilities for the
morning commute. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until mid-
morning to highlight this travel hazard. Once the fog lifts
later this morning, we will see a seasonably very warm day
across the region. Afternoon highs are expected to approach the
upper 70s for pockets of northwest Wisconsin. Later this evening
and through the overnight hours, an incoming band of heavy
rainfall will setup over north-central Minnesota. The heaviest
precipitation is expected to fall mainly over northwest Itasca
County and western Koochiching County where upwards of an inch
is possible. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out either
tonight for these areas.

Heading into Tuesday morning, the initial band of rainfall will
decrease in intensity and shift south and eastward over the
rest of northern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
closer to normal as clouds and showers are ongoing. However,
the weather will become more active again by Tuesday evening as
another period of heavier rainfall enters northwest Wisconsin.
This secondary round of heavier rainfall is forecast to bring
widespread amounts ranging from a half to three quarters of an
inch across northwest Wisconsin into Tuesday night.

Wednesday will feature one more warm day across the region, with
lingering scattered rain showers mainly focusing on northwest
Wisconsin. These showers will gradually taper off as a potent
cold front approaches from the west. This frontal passage
Wednesday night will usher in a pattern change for the
Northland. From the dawn hours Thursday into the daytime, expect
gusty northwest winds to develop as a colder airmass filters
into the region. These brisk winds will accompany a sharp drop
in temperatures, falling 10 to 15 degrees Thursday compared to
the warm conditions experienced on Wednesday.

The much colder airmass fully settles in for Thursday night
behind the cold front as strong surface high pressure sets up
overhead. The combination of clearing skies, lightening winds,
and cold air advection will create our next widespread frost and
freeze potential. Frost or freeze headlines are likely to be
needed in time for later Thursday night into Friday morning.

Near-normal temperatures for early October will set up for this
weekend as a frost potential will remain a concern during the
overnight hours. A minor and relatively weak weather system may
pass through the region by the weekend, bringing our next chance
for light rain showers to the area by Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Foggy conditions continue, with INL continuing to fluctuate up
and down in visibilities. HIB, BRD, and HYR are solidly in dense
fog and are expected to be for the remainder of the night. DLH
still could see some fog, but is starting to look less likely as
Lake Superior`s influence seems to be preventing fog from
forming in the vicinity. VFR conditions will return in the
morning, but rain showers in the evening will bring MVFR
ceilings and possibly visibilities to INL once again.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fog, potentially dense, will impact western Lake Superior this
morning before lifting to improve visibility for the afternoon.
Winds will remain around or under 15 knots out of the east and
northeast today. South winds will increase on Tuesday and may
lead to hazardous conditions for small craft as gusts approach
25 knots near and offshore of Grand Portage. A cold front
crosses late Wednesday, shifting winds to the west and
strengthening them considerably for Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated through midweek
due to a widespread wetting rainfall and elevated relative
humidity values remaining around or above the 45-50 percent
range. Winds will stay light today, but southerly winds will
become gusty on Tuesday. Following a strong cold frontal passage
Wednesday night, northwest winds will become gusty late
Wednesday night and further increase Thursday daytime alongside
a drier and much cooler airmass. Afternoon minimum relative
humidity for Thursday and Friday behind the cold front drop into
the 30 percent range.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-019-
     034>038.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...NLy