769
FXUS63 KDLH 151120
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
620 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures gradually warm through the work week, with the
  warmest day on Friday with highs in the 60s and low 70s.

- Next chance for rain late tonight through Thursday with rain
  chances lingering through the weekend. Rainfall amounts of up
  to a half inch are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Early morning showers/sprinkles over the area this morning will
shift off to the east fairly quickly this morning. Cloud cover
will linger with warm moist air advection continuing today into
Thursday ahead of an upper level trough that is now over the
southwestern CONUS. This upper trough will lift northeast
through today and Thursday before pushing into Manitoba Thursday
night/early Friday. This pattern continues the southwesterly
upper level flow with warm moist air advection ongoing through
Thursday night. With this, there will be another push of
precipitation moving across the Northland beginning tonight,
continuing through Thursday, then tapering off to scattered
showers Friday as the cold front moves through the region. We
wil then have scattered wrap around showers which linger into at
least Saturday. Another effect of the extended period of warm
air advection is the gradual warming trend. While we will be
cool, mostly in the 50s today, temperatures warm into the 60s to
low 70s for Friday. These temperatures will be a good 10
degrees above normal, but nowhere near records, which are in the
80s this time of year. Temperatures cool off for the weekend
with the upper low now to the northeast and northwest flow
bringing cooler air back into the area.

High pressure builds back into the area for early next week,
keeping temperatures near normal. Precipitation chances should
return by the middle of the week, depending on how quickly the
next upper level trough pushes into the area. Confidence in the
precipitation forecast for next week remains low at this point,
with some pretty large differences between models.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Mostly VFR conditions persist at the terminals as of issuance
time. There is an area of MVFR stratus just to the southwest
which has pushed into KBRD, and should linger there today, with
the stratus expanding once again after dark as another wave of
precipitation begins to push into the area from the southwest,
pushing into KHIB, KDLH and KHYR after 06z tonight, along with
MVFR visibilities and -SHRA. While KDLH pulled a fake-out back
at 05z and has returned to VFR, we have increasing confidence
the IFR stratus will return around 06z tonight as the easterly
flow persists and additional moisture should help produce the
stratus.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A ridge of high pressure building into the area will keep winds
on the lighter side and generally out of the east to northeast
today. As the high pressure slides east of the area, winds will
veer southeast tonight into Thursday and begin to increase.
Waves should remain 1 foot or less through Thursday, but as
winds increase to 10 to 20 knots Thursday night into Friday and
become more southerly, waves will build, especially along the
North Shore. Conditions may become hazardous for small craft. A
warm front will bring another round of showers to most of the
lake during the day on Thursday, with precipitation chances
lingering through Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE