981
FXUS63 KDLH 152051
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
351 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances are increasing for
  Monday afternoon and evening.

- After Monday, occasional rain chances, especially later this
  week into next weekend.

- Seasonably warm temperatures through the week. Some warm to
  hot temperatures in the 80s possible next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Monday remains the most interesting day of the forecast. A
strong shortwave will move across northern Minnesota into
Wisconsin Monday afternoon and night, along with a surface cold
front that pushes through the region Monday evening. The severe
threat continues to look elevated compared to yesterday as the
models are coalescing on a more favorable timing of the synoptic
features and convective ingredients. Starting with Monday
morning, we should get some initial showers and non-severe
elevated storms that should slide across the region, associated
with the warm/moist air advection and band of lift that passes
across the area. This should do a good job of keeping the lower
atmosphere capped through the morning if this plays out as it
currently looks (though it could certainly change). Behind this
band of precipitation, a sector of warm, moist air will push
into the area from the south, with an area of moderate surface
based instability with mid-level lapse rates increasing to 7-8
C/km will create a very unstable environment. Moderate to Strong
deep layer shear and favorable veering of the low level winds
will support strong to severe storms with all storm modes
possible, morphing into a wind and hail threat. The greatest
severe threat is more for southern and central Minnesota, but
though confidence is increasing that our southern counties
(including the Brainerd Lakes to Hinckley to Spooner areas) will
be on the northern periphery of the greatest instability and
shear. This area has a ~30 percent chance of large hail that
could be 2"+ in diameter, a 15 percent chance of damaging wind
gusts and a ~5% chance for tornadoes (per SPC, with an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms). As we look farther north, the
lake breeze will cut off some surface instability, and also the
low passing through our region and gradually cutting off the
deep warm air advection. With all that said, it`s looking like
Monday afternoon and evening should be rather active with some
initially discrete supercells (hail and tornado threats)
developing, possibly becoming more linear into the evening
(increasing wind threat). Stay tuned for more updates.

After the front passes Monday night, northwest flow and quieter
weather will move into the area for Tuesday and Wednesday.
There should be mostly sunny skies and diurnal cumulus clouds,
with a 20 to 30 percent chance of isolated showers/storms both
days. Warm temperatures continue through Wednesday, with high
temperatures in the 70s for most of the area.

An upper level shortwave appears to move across the area on
Thursday may bring an increased chance of showers and storms.
Broad scale ridging should build as we get into the weekend, so
warmer temperatures can be expected, with highs creeping into
the 80s for parts of the area. We are also carrying some chances
for showers and storms, 30 to 50 percent as shortwaves may move
through the upper level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An area of predominantly MVFR ceilings continue to linger
across the southernmost three terminals (HYR, BRD and DLH) for
most of this forecast. It is possible that clouds may lift and
scatter to VFR at DLH/BRD later this afternoon for several
hours. Light southeast winds are expected to continue through
the TAF period. Tonight, a low level jet develops, and this will
cause an inversion and low clouds to remain in place with
ceilings spreading and lowering to MVFR/IFR. Some fog is also
possible, and while it likely won`t be dense, some lower IFR
visibilities can`t be completely ruled out, which are most
likely at HIB/DLH. Scattered showers will remain possible
through much of the period for HYR and BRD.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Northeast winds tonight will gradually veer east on Monday
ahead of an approaching low pressure system, remaining in the 10
to 15 knot range for speeds. Waves will remain in the 1 to 2
foot range. A cold front will move through the area Monday
evening, causing winds to veer to the west Monday night into
Tuesday. Wind speeds may bump up to around 15 knots for a few
hours Monday evening before diminishing again to 10 to 15 knots.
Waves should remain in the 1 to 2 foot range through Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE