163
FXUS63 KDLH 131139
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
639 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will improve through
  the morning hours.

- Quiet weather with unseasonably warm and summer-like
  temperatures today and Sunday. Highs in the 70s to low 80s.

- On-and-off chances for showers and storms next week with
  continuing warm weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Low clouds and fog have spread over most of the Northland again this
morning. with visibilities below 1 mile. Conditions will improve
after sunrise, giving way to above normal temperatures and quiet
weather with easterly low level winds.

Upper level ridging will amplify northward through the
Mississippi River Valley this weekend, between troughing over
the Rockies and troughing over eastern Canada, while surface
high pressure slides eastward from Manitoba into Ontario. This
will keep east to southeast surface winds over the Northland
this weekend, with mid level warm advection reinforcing warmer
air aloft. Daytime highs will run 5-10 degrees above normal
this weekend, with temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight lows will be 8-15 degrees above normal, with lows in
the 50s and mid 60s.

Sunday, the trough over the Rockies will pivot northward into
the northern Plains, with a surface low pushing into south
central Canada. Drier air over the Northland will be re-enforced
from the east, while southerly winds advect moisture northward
into the area. A band of rain will push into the Brainerd Lakes
area Sunday evening, but given the dry air in place and
weakening instability and lapse rates, expect rain to quickly
diminish with no severe storm threat.

Broad troughing will push into the Upper Midwest early next week,
pushing the ridge axis to the east of the Northland. Deep layer
south to southwest flow will set up, providing moisture and
lift from impulses rotating through the broader trough. Could
see a couple different waves of rain and storms Monday afternoon
/evening and again Tuesday night. By the end of the week, the
pattern becomes more progressive with the trough axis moving
east through the area, and serving as the catalyst for
additional rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Widespread low clouds and fog persist across the Northland
this morning, with widespread LIFR/IFR conditions at most
terminals. Conditions will slowly improve this morning, with VFR
conditions for much of the afternoon and evening. Winds will be
from the east at 6-12kts, with an occasional higher gusts.
Gusts to 18kts are most likely at BRD.

Another round of low ceilings and fog is expected tonight into
Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Areas of fog are possible this morning, with visibilities
improving through the morning.

Breezy northeast winds expected again today, gusting to around
20 kt. There`s a ~20% chance that there could be some gusts to
around 25 kt that could warrant a Small Craft Advisory this
afternoon. Sunday looks slightly breezier than Saturday, with a
better chance of northeast gusts to 25 kt along the North Shore.

The next chance for showers and storms is Monday afternoon and
evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ018>021-
     025-026-033>037.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA