742
FXUS63 KDLH 230548
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chilly night ahead with frost likely across parts of
  the region.

- Persistent northeasterly winds will keep the threat for rip
  currents in place at Twin Port beaches today and may linger
  into Wednesday as well.

- Rainfall chances return late Wednesday into Thursday with
  another chance this weekend with above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

High pressure remained in control across the Northland early
this afternoon with mainly clear skies across the region.
Easterly winds off Lake Superior will again be gusty this
afternoon, keeping a risk for rip currents in place another day
along Minnesota and Wisconsin Points. Another cool night is
expected under clear skies along with light winds. Lows were
adjusted slightly downward with this update with 30s expected
for most with 40s near Lake Superior. Another Frost Advisory is
likely for tonight, but will likely not be as expansive as the
one last night.

As the high slides a bit more to the east tonight into tomorrow,
winds will turn more southerly. Highs tomorrow will be slightly
warmer than today, with lower to middle 60s for most along with
some 50s along the North Shore with onshore flow. Winds in the
western arm of the lake will be more easterly with terrain
funneling effects and lead elevated risk for rip currents at
Twin Port beaches.

As upper ridging starts to build in tomorrow, a mid-level
shortwave will move from the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. This will bring
chances for showers mainly along and east of US 53/I-35 in
Minnesota tomorrow night into Thursday. This system will be
running into the surface high to the east and drier air in place
and is expected to weaken as it crosses. Much of northwest
Wisconsin may not see anything with this shortwave.

Southerly flow is again expected for Friday, allowing highs to
warm into the 60s with a few lower 70s in spots. Another
shortwave will lift along the periphery of the upper ridge
Friday into the weekend as the ridge axis shifts eastward. This
will bring another chance for showers to the region mainly on
Saturday. Some of the models are a little more excited in terms
of QPF with this system, but given the drought in place and
overall setup, it doesn`t instill much confidence in getting
those higher amounts. Temperatures remain in the 60s with some
low 70s in spots through the weekend and into early next week
with additional chances for rainfall as the pattern becomes a
bit more active.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

High pressure lingers over Lake Superior through much of the
forecast. Stratus is once again forming along the higher terrain
of the North Shore as easterly flow moves off Lake Superior.
This is likely to bring IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities
to KDLH and KHIB. These clouds may spread as far as KBRD and
KINL, but have left it out of those sites for now. VFR
conditions will return by late morning, and linger most of the
rest of the day today. This evening stratus may form once again
after 04z towards the end of the TAF period, but have left out
for now until confidence rises.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

High pressure to the east of Lake Superior will keep easterly
winds in place across western Lake Superior this afternoon and
into tonight. Funneling effects will lead to higher gusts in the
western arm and along the South Shore with gusts to 20 to 25
knots expected. Small Craft Advisories are in place into this
evening. Winds weaken tonight and become more southerly, but
terrain funneling will again lead to easterly winds across
western Lake Superior. Gusts are expected to be a little weaker
and may remain just under advisory level. Lighter winds are then
expected for Thursday and Friday with gusts to 15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Afternoon RH values will be in the 40-50% range across most of
the Northland this afternoon. Drier RH values to as low as 35%
are likely across the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin. Gusty
easterly winds to 20 to 25 mph will be possible near Lake
Superior with lighter winds inland. Rain chances return tomorrow
afternoon into Thursday, mainly across northeastern Minnesota. A
wetting rainfall is not currently expected for most areas,
although north-central Minnesota may see up to a quarter of an
inch in spots. Above normal temperatures and additional chances
for rain will persist through the weekend and into next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018-
     019-026.
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-
     007>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH