180
FXUS63 KDLH 271829
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
129 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northeasterly winds Monday bring a threat of rip
  currents to Twin Port beaches.

- Tropical moisture will lead to widespread rainfall across the
  Northland for Monday night into Tuesday.

- Temperatures trend cooler over the latter half of the week
  with frost potential returning heading into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Low pressure was located over Hudson Bay early this afternoon
with a cold front extending southward into far western northwest
Ontario, northern and western Minnesota and back into South
Dakota. Little rainfall activity is seen ahead of this front,
but there is a large area of low stratus ahead of the front with
a sharp clearing line behind the front, although some high
clouds are seen behind the front. Some drizzle or sprinkles
cannot be ruled out under the low stratus, but overall dry
conditions are expected as drier air works into the region.
Highs this afternoon will be in the 60s with a few lower 70s,
highest in areas that break out of the clouds.

Deep troughing will dig into the Intermountain West on Monday
with a southwesterly to northeasterly jet ahead of it stretching
from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains. This will
advect tropical moisture northward from the systems off Baja
California. High pressure over the Upper Midwest will keep dry
conditions in place for Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s. As
the deep trough over the Rockies approaches the Plains Monday
night, a warm front will set up across the northern Plains into
northern Minnesota. This will bring a first round of shower
activity to the Northland with additional rounds of rainfall for
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The highest rainfall amounts look
to occur across Koochiching County into western Itasca and far
northwestern St. Louis counties where a half inch to an inch
plus will be possible. Another surge of moisture Tuesday will
then shift the heavier rain threat into parts of northwest
Wisconsin. Portions of Burnett, Washburn, and Sawyer counties
may receive around a half an inch by the time rainfall ends
Wednesday. There may be some rumbles of thunder at times during
the rainfall, but storms are not expected to be overly numerous
and will be embedded in the rainfall if they occur. Lesser
rainfall amounts will be seen between the two areas of higher
amounts. Temperatures will only reach the 60s on Tuesday with
copious cloud cover and rainfall in place. Showers linger for
Wednesday and slowly taper off through the day with highs
reaching into the 60s and lower 70s.

A cold front will then move through the Upper Midwest for
Wednesday night into Thursday. This looks to be a mainly dry
frontal passage at this time with most of the rainfall
associated with it occurring north of the International Border.
A much cooler airmass will arrive behind this front with highs
for Thursday into the weekend in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows
in the 30s and 40s will bring renewed concerns for frost, but a
widespread freeze is not currently expected. Minimal rainfall
chances are seen for late next week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Low stratus continues to plague most of the region early this
afternoon ahead of a cold front. Sharp clearing is seen behind
the front and will move eastward through the afternoon and early
evening hours. Another round of fog and low stratus is then
expected to form overnight into Monday morning. IFR or lower
VSBYs and CIGs are expected at the terminals, except for INL
which is expected to remain VFR. Conditions will improve after
sunrise Monday, but the low stratus may linger at DLH, BRD and
HYR through the morning. Winds will remain under 10 knots
through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Southwesterly winds this evening will become northeasterly
overnight and increase on Monday to 5 to 15 knots. The strongest
winds will be in the western arm of the lake during the
afternoon and evening hours. Winds then turn southwesterly for
Monday night into Tuesday at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to
24 knots. The strongest gusts Tuesday are expected from Grand
Marais to Grand Portage and along the South Shore east of
Chequamegon Bay. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are expected into midweek with
afternoon RH values remaining above 50 percent. Rainfall is
expected for Monday night through Tuesday that will likely bring
at least at tenth of an inch of precipitation to most areas.
Higher amounts of 0.50-1" will be possible across portions of
Koochiching, western Itasca, northwestern St. Louis, southern
Burnett, southern Washburn, and southwestern Sawyer counties.
Winds will remain under 15 mph this afternoon and tomorrow
before increasing for Tuesday with gusts to around 20 to 25 mph
from the south.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH