028
FXUS63 KDLH 181733
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1133 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A change in pattern arrives on Wednesday, with precipitation
  chances on Wednesday through Thursday. Rain is the most likely
  precipitation type, but a wintry mix can`t be ruled out for
  northern portions of the area.

- Drier weather moves in on Friday into the weekend. An active
  pattern may develop early next week as a colder than normal
  airmass moves into the central U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Quiet conditions are being observed early this morning with mostly
clear to clear skies as high pressure remains located in northern
Ontario. There has been increased cloud cover along the southern CWA
border, as low pressure currently located around Nebraska propagates
eastward towards the Lower Great Lakes region. Precipitation
associated with this low pressure is expected to stay well south of
CWA, keeping conditions dry today. With dry air lingering in the
near-sfc to 850mb layer, expect low RH this afternoon in the 20-30%
range. Fortunately for fire weather concerns, winds will be light
and variable through today due to the high pressure.

A change in the dry pattern we`ve been seeing is expected to occur
on Wednesday as precipitation chances increase. The first round of
precip on Wednesday will be arriving along a weak amplitude
shortwave trough moving into the CWA from the northern High
Plains. Precipitation type on Wednesday will most likely be
rain, with a small 10% chance for brief freezing rain/drizzle in
far north- central MN around I-Falls on Wednesday morning.
Model soundings suggest that low-level saturation will be
occurring close to freezing, which could increase the potential
for light icing or light snow accumulations if temps trend a few
degrees cooler on Wednesday morning in Koochiching, Itasca, and
northern St. Louis Counties. QPF on Wednesday is very likely
(70% chance) to be fairly light ranging from a trace up to 0.1",
with a 30% chance for localized precip amounts above 0.1" near
the International Border.

Precipitation chances ramp up and become more widespread on
Wednesday night into Thursday as a second, more dynamic, shortwave
propagates into the Upper Midwest and sweeps a cold front through
the CWA. Similar to Wednesday, model soundings continue to show low-
level saturation hovering close to the freezing mark, which
increases uncertainty in regards to precipitation type on Wednesday
night through Thursday. While rain is still the predominant p-type
forecast, light freezing rain, a wintry mix, or all snow are all on
the table for the Arrowhead and north-central WI where temps will be
closer to freezing. If snow accumulations do occur from this system,
current expectations are that it will be a wet snow accumulating to
around 0.5" north of the Iron Range due to limited QPF and low SLRs.

Following the cold frontal passage on Thursday, dry conditions and
reduced cloud cover move into the CWA Thursday night and continue
through Friday. Looking ahead to the weekend, the forecast is
currently dry, although there are indications in the global models
that additional shortwaves could move through the CWA and bring
light precipitation. Given the lack of consensus at this time
regarding coverage and timing, opted to keep the weekend forecast
dry. For early next week, a more active pattern may be possible as a
colder than average airmass advects into the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail under light winds through at least the
first half of the TAF period. An area of showers moves into the
north-central Minnesota Borderlands area after 09Z tonight which
brings VCSH mention to KINL around sunrise tomorrow morning.
Expect decreasing ceilings towards MVFR from 12-15Z as winds
shift southwesterly 5-10 knots.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Light and variable winds are expected today into Wednesday morning
as high pressure persists with waves of 1 foot or less. Southwest
winds on Wednesday morning are expected to increase ahead of an
approaching cold front, with a 30 to 50% chance for wind gusts in
excess of 22 knots from Grand Marais to Grand Portage on Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed for this nearshore zone. After a cold front sweeps through on
Thursday, bringing rain and a potential wintry mix, northwest winds
will potentially become gusty and necessitate additional Small Craft
Advisories.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Unruh