502
FXUS63 KDLH 040558
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, summer-like weather through this weekend. Record high
  temperatures are likely today and Saturday.

- Showers and storms in north-central Minnesota Saturday
  evening into Sunday. A strong storm may be possible Saturday
  evening and night.

- Gusty winds this weekend, with strong wind gusts of 30 to 45
  mph expected Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Today - Tonight:

Unusually warm temperatures for early October have developed
today as surface high pressure and a ridge aloft sit over the
region. Afternoon highs will top out in the low to upper 80s for
locations away from the Lake Superior vicinity. Meanwhile, onshore
flow around the Lake will keep high temperatures immediately
near the Lake in the 70s to around 80F. Onshore winds pick up a
bit this evening, so anyone trying to escape the heat by
swimming near Duluth and Superior should be mindful of the
potential for rip currents developing. Several locations should
approach or break record high temperatures today, particularly
in north- and east-central Minnesota. The Northland should
remain dry, with the exceptions of a few sprinkles or very light
rain showers near the international border tonight near a
stationary front. Little to no accumulations expected due to
dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere.

Saturday - Sunday:

A few impactful weather concerns for this weekend as the result
of the ridge slowly sliding to our east and a negatively-tilted
trough and low pressure system sliding through just to our west:
1) very warm to hot weather, 2) very strong winds and fairly low
relative humidities potentially leading to near-critical fire
weather conditions, and 3) a low potential for a strong storm in
far north-central Minnesota Saturday evening and Saturday
night.

Hot high temperatures on Saturday and warm overnight lows
Saturday night could both approach or break records, as well.
These temperatures will be 20F to 25F above normal for early
October. Temperatures remain well-above average in the mid-70s
to low 80s on Sunday as a cold front associated with the low
pressure passing just to our west moves through the Northland.
Temperatures fall very quickly behind the cold front for Sunday
night.

A strong surface pressure gradient associated with the
approaching weather system will lead to increasing southwesterly
winds on Saturday into early Sunday, with west to northwest
winds behind the cold front Sunday PM. Winds of 15-25 mph with
gusts to 30-40 mph are forecast for Saturday into Saturday
night, with even stronger wind gusts of 35-45 mph for daytime
Sunday as the cold front moves through before winds drop off
quickly Sunday night. We will need to continue monitoring for
any Wind Advisory potential, but the gusts to around 45 mph look
to be on a more isolated basis with the current forecast.
Afternoon relative humidity on Saturday and Sunday should
generally remain above 30-35%, but in combination with the hot
temperatures and very gusty winds could still lead to near-
critical fire weather conditions. Any fires that do start in
these conditions could rapidly spread. Therefore, use extreme
caution if burning outdoors this weekend.

For precipitation, the track of the low pressure still looks to
remain northwest of the Northland, keeping the shower and
thunderstorm potential confined to far northern Minnesota
Saturday evening into Saturday night. A strong storm or two with
small hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out in far north-
central Minnesota due to stronger shear and some modest
elevated instability, but most of this activity looks to remain
west of our area. Some shower and isolated storm potential
lingers into Sunday for the Northland--mainly in northern
Minnesota--as the cold front moves through, but a fairly dry
atmospheric profile keeps these chances low (10-30%) for areas
south of the Iron Range.

Next Week:

Behind the cold front, cooler conditions closer to normal for
early October return along with dry conditions for the first
half of the week. Frost/freeze potential return in this
timeframe with lows in the 30s, particularly on Tuesday night
where widespread lows below freezing have the best chance of
occurring. There remains a lack of appreciable rainfall until at
least late next week, so lower relative humidities and fire
weather concerns persist through at least the first half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A bit of fog and low stratus has made its way to DLH, and it may
linger for a few hours. There is low confidence about when it
may retreat. We should have light upsloping winds continuing,
but also given the localized nature of it, the fog and stratus
may only impact the terminal in scattered bursts through around
sunrise. Expect temporary MVFR/IFR conditions that may gradually
improve.

Outside of fog at DLH, the main impacts through the period will
be gusty winds and LLWS. Pretty persistent southerly winds are
expected with some occasional drops in speed and gusts at night,
but otherwise gusting anywhere from 20-30 kt during the day.
LLWS is expected through mid-morning, then again after sunset
this evening at most terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Northeast winds funneling down the southwest arm of Lake
Superior are expected to gust up to 20-25 kt this evening along
with 1-3 ft waves, so a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to Port Wing. We will also
need to watch an area of dense fog near Isle Royale that
satellite shows moving southwest. Should this trend persist,
some dense fog advisories may be needed this evening and/or
tonight.

Rapidly changing and hazardous conditions arrive for Saturday
and Sunday. Winds shift on Saturday with strong southerly winds
developing and building large waves for all boaters. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed starting Saturday morning as
winds and waves ramp up. Winds become even stronger for Sunday,
with gusts of 30-40 kt and even higher waves, particularly for
the North Shore. These winds turn westerly late Sunday as a cold
front moves through and then northwesterly Sunday night into
Monday with winds gradually weakening behind the front. A Gale
Watch has been issued for all of the western Superior nearshore
waters for Sunday into Sunday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The very warm to hot period this weekend is creating a forecast
of some likely-to-be broken record high and warm low
temperatures in the Northland. Below are the days which have the
highest chances of multiple stations tying or breaking these
temperature records. These forecast temperatures are about 20
degrees F (highs) and about 25 degrees (warm lows) above normal
for early October.

Record High Temperatures:

October 3: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      80       82/2023
KINL:      82       84/2023
KBRD:      87       84/2023
KHIB:      81       83/1953

October 4:
KDLH:      84       83/1922
KINL:      85       82/2011
KBRD:      88       82/2011
KHIB:      84       78/2011


Record Warm Low Temperatures:

October 4: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      57       58/1914
KINL:      63       60/1914
KBRD:      68       60/1914
KHIB:      59       54/1969
KASX:      57       59/1931

October 5:
KASX:      62       56/1975

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Rothstein
CLIMATE...Wolfe