898
FXUS63 KDLH 291124
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers this morning extending from the Brainerd
  Lakes Region into southern Burnett

- Quiet holiday weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Increased rain chances will arrive on Tuesday with a cold
  front. After the frontal passage expect another dose of
  cooler weather with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Current Conditions/Today:

Radar shows an area of showers with an occasional lightning
strikes in the Brainerd Lakes region extending east into
southern portions of Pine county. These showers find themselves
in a small corridor of higher PWATs of around 1". Looking at the
300K isentropic surface reveals weak pressure advection in the
low levels providing the necessary lift to generate these
showers. The latest RAP guidance has this lift weakening and
shifting to the south by late morning leading to a decrease in
precipitation chances. The rest of the day will be fairly quiet
as surface high pressure meanders over the Great Lakes region.
Highs will warm into the 70s with the North Shore and Twin Ports
staying in the 60s.

Holiday Weekend:

A Rex Blocking pattern sets up between an anticyclone over Manitoba
and an upper level low over the Northern Plains this weekend. There
still remains some uncertainty as to the overall placement of the
features which will have a great deal of impact on our precipitation
chances. For now, the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance favors
placing the low over SD leading to our CWA just being on the cusp of
showery activity. The NBM is keeping the weekend dry with highs in
the upper 70s. Looking at the sounding profiles for northern MN
reveals some inverted V soundings. So we decided to add at least a
mention of sprinkles in the afternoon on Saturday as diurnal heating
should be sufficient to get some cumulus going.

Midweek:

The better chances for precipitation arrive on Tuesday as a cold
front swings across the region. At this point, severe weather
chances does not look favorable. Lack of bulk shear is the most
limiting factor, but could still get a few storms as weak
instability will be present. Behind this front we will see
another stint of cooler weather with highs on Wednesday in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Radar shows a small corridor of precipitation in the Brainerd
Lakes region. Lightning chances remain low but not zero with
these showers. This activity is expected to taper off and sink
south over the next couple of hours. The rest of the day will
see VFR conditions paired with light and variable winds.
Overnight there is potential for fog to develop and impact the
majority of the terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Light winds to start the forecast period. Winds will turn to out of
the northeast this afternoon around 5 kts and increase to 10 knots
overnight. Winds will remain light as we head into the weekend with
direction flipping to out of the southwest. No concerns for wave
heights greater than 1 foot.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt