655
FXUS63 KDLH 282116
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
416 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging
  winds are the main threats. A few tornadoes are also possible.

- Warm temperatures today will trend a little cooler Thursday
  before a warming trend returns Friday through the weekend.
  Temperatures will climb to 10-20 degrees above normal.

- Thursday and Friday should be dry then precipitation chances
  return Saturday and Saturday night south of US-2. Widespread
  precip chances forecast Monday through next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT:

As of 330 PM... Storms continued over central and southern
Minnesota in the warm sector of a nascent low pressure system
centered near STC. The warm front extended eastward roughly
along MN/WI-70 while a cold front was farther west over
southwest Minnesota. Temperatures were in the upper 50s and low
60s over western Wisconsin into central Minnesota with dewpoints
in the 50s. The 18Z MPX sounding revealed two elevated mixed
layers which were keeping the eastward extent of convection
limited. Hodographs over east-central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin were supportive of supercells capable of large hail
and tornadoes. The main question is whether storms can become
surface-based. Storms are expected to lift northeastward into
the Brainerd Lakes and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon
and this evening. Areas of northwest Wisconsin and adjacent
portions of east-central Minnesota saw partial sunshine this
afternoon which will aid in storm development and maintenance.

Precipitation over north-central Minnesota will persist this
evening in response to the strengthening low pressure. Look for
that precipitation to persist and propagate eastward over the
Arrowhead by late evening.

Partial clearing is expected as the precipitation dwindles
tonight.

THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND:

Behind the departing cold front tonight, a cooler and drier air
mass will sweep into our region for Thursday. High temperatures
will trend noticeably cooler and near to slightly above
normal;, generally topping out in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Partial clearing is expected early, particularly south of US-2.
By late morning, cold air advection atop modest warming should
permit development of a broad shallow cumulus field. Gusty west
to northwest winds will make it feel a bit brisk throughout the
day. These winds will gradually diminish as we head through the
afternoon and cold air advection weakens, setting the stage for
a quiet and chilly evening with lows dipping into the 20s.

Quiet and pleasant weather holds across the area on Friday as
the surface high pressure slides to our east. Winds will be
lighter, and temperatures will quickly rebound into the upper
40s to upper 50s under plentiful sunshine. Highs Friday will be
5 to 12 degrees above normal. As we head into the weekend,
return flow will pull even warmer air northward, resulting in
temperatures climbing back to ten to twenty degrees above
normal. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s to upper 50s and
lower 60s Saturday and Sunday, while overnight lows remain well
above freezing.

A warm front will slowly lift northward across the Midwest into
southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin by Sunday morning.
Isentropic ascent north of the front enhanced by a northeastward
propagating shortwave trough will bring a chance of showers to
areas south of US-2 in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Rain amounts
should be light.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

By Monday and Tuesday, the chance for widespread precipitation
return as a larger and better organized storm system moves into
the central CONUS. Models are split on how that system will
evolve. The latest GFS points to a cutoff low developing over
the central Plains while the ECMWF features a more progressive
trough lifting northeastward across the Upper Midwest. Cloud
cover and periods of rain will keep conditions somewhat dreary,
though temperatures are expected to remain on the mild side for
late October. Forecast models suggest that this system could
bring a beneficial soaking rain to much of the region before
precipitation gradually tapers off toward the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A few holes have appeared in the low stratus over the Northland
early this afternoon. Expect pockets of clearing to persist
through this afternoon. Light rain is forecast at INL through
early evening. BRD, DLH, and HYR have a chance of thunderstorms.
HIB has a smaller chance of thunderstorms and should see light
rain at a minimum. A cold front sweeps into the area this
evening and will veer winds northwesterly. Skies may clear
behind the front for a time before cold air advection supports
the development of low stratus Thursday morning. LLWS is
forecast at BRD and HYR where northwest winds aloft will be
strongest.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

East and northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will move
over the waters late this afternoon and tonight ahead of and
behind a cold front. Winds will weaken and veer westerly and
southwesterly immediately behind the front and strengthen to
10-20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots. Small Craft
Advisories were issued from early Thursday morning until 7 PM
Thursday evening. Winds decrease and become northwesterly
Thursday night. Winds and waves are unlikely to pose a hazard to
boaters again until early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rain and thunderstorms will taper off tonight. Rain totals will
range from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch over north-
central Minnesota to 3/4 to 1 inch or more over northwest
Wisconsin. Thursday will bring west and northwest winds at 5 to
15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph in the morning. Wind speeds
and gusts are expected to decrease through the afternoon. Min RH
may fall to around 40 percent for portions of NW Wisconsin with
values between 45 and 55 percent elsewhere. A little drier
Friday with min RH between 35 and 45 percent. Lowest RH values
will be in northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be lighter than
Thursday. There will be a small chance of rain south of US-2 in
Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
morning. Most of the area should stay rain-free. Temps will be
warm with highs in the 50s Saturday and middle 50s to low 60s
Sunday. Widespread rain chances return Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-
     140>145-148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ146-
     147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Huyck
FIRE WEATHER...Huyck