995
FXUS63 KDLH 041150
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
650 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms move through the remainder of the
  region early this morning with only a few isolated showers and
  perhaps a rumble of thunder lingering through the day.

- Temperatures around 80 F for inland areas Friday and areawide
  this weekend.

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, possibly
  severe, Sunday PM when heavy rainfall is possible. Widespread
  rainfall is forecast into Monday night ending Tuesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Low pressure was located near the North Dakota/South
Dakota/Minnesota triple point early this morning with a
warm/stationary boundary extending eastward across south-central
Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. A line of showers and
thunderstorms was observed on radar stretching from northern St.
Louis County back into the Brainerd Lakes area. The southern end
of this line has a history of being severe as it moved across
central Minnesota. This line is expected to push east through
the remainder of the early morning hours and exit the Northland
shortly after sunrise. There may still be some embedded hail
this morning and gusty winds, but the overall severe threat is
diminishing. Areas of fog and low stratus are expected to
develop following the rain and trends will need to be monitored
for a potential Dense Fog Advisory. A few showers may linger
through the day today, but no additional significant rainfall is
expected once the current area moves out. No changes were made
to the remainder of the forecast period with isolated chances
for showers and storms through the weekend before a stronger
system potentially moves across the Upper Midwest for Labor Day
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

For the rest of the day and into tonight, our primary focus shifts
to an advancing mass of strong to severe thunderstorms
currently organizing in the Red River Valley. This complex has
moved up in time for impacts to the Northland this evening
compared to earlier forecasts and is now timed to enter our
north-central Minnesota zones around 5 PM this evening. The
storms will ride a sharp instability gradient, driving
southeastward primarily south of the Iron Range. The main
hazards with this line will be damaging wind gusts and large
hail up to the size of ping-pong balls, with the potential for
wind-driven hail. As the system tracks eastward, the severe
threat is expected to drop off rapidly an hour or two after
sunset as it approaches the western Iron Range and the Twin
Ports region, with the highest damaging wind threat remaining
further south along the Interstate 35 corridor. Expect this
activity to clear the Minnesota/Wisconsin stateline late this
evening into the early overnight hours.

In the wake of the evening convection, lingering low-level
moisture and cooling temperatures could produce dense fog
tonight. Of particular note is a bank of very low stratus over
the North Shore terrain ridge, which could significantly reduce
visibilities for the Friday morning commute. Conditions will
gradually improve by late Friday morning as ceilings lift and
skies slowly clear out into the midday hours. Along the shores
of western Lake Superior, strong and persistent northeast winds
will continue to generate dangerous rip currents, keeping
swimming conditions hazardous. Another Beach Hazards Statement
may again by needed for Friday after the current one today
expires late this evening.

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will gradually warm back
into the upper-70s to low-80s under the influence of transient
upper-level ridging. The break in active weather will be
relatively short- lived, however, as the next surge of
instability builds into the region by Sunday. We will be
monitoring the potential for strong thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon through overnight. While severe weather is not
currently forecast for Sunday late PM, the environment will be
characterized by an incredibly moist airmass, raising concerns
for heavy rainfall that then lasts in Monday.

This moist, unsettled pattern will linger into Labor Day.
Areawide rainfall chances peak on Monday with a 60 to 80 percent
probability of precipitation as a low-pressure system lifts from
the northern U.S. Plains into southern Manitoba. The
precipitation is forecast to slowly clear out of the Northland
by Tuesday morning. Looking further ahead, as the precipitation
departs and broad troughing re-establishes itself, temperatures
are expected to slowly cool to near normal through the latter
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Fog and low stratus has finally developed with widespread IFR to
LIFR conditions across the region. CIGs are better at INL and
BRD with MVFR conditions in place. VSBYs will improve to MVFR or
better later this morning, but the low stratus looks to persist
into the afternoon. There may be a period late in the afternoon
where CIGs scatter out before CIGs fall again to MVFR or lower.
Fog is expected to redevelop for this evening and tonight with
IFR or lower VSBYs. Winds away from Lake Superior will remain
under 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Easterly winds will persist for today and Saturday with gusts to
20 to 30 knots in the western arm and along the North Shore
today. With the persistent easterly winds, waves of 2 to 5 feet
will will continue in the western arm and along the Outer
Apostle Islands into Saturday. Winds diminish a bit for Saturday
with gusts up to 15 to 20 knots in the western arm. The current
round of Small Craft Advisories lasts into this evening, but may
need to be extended with waves likely staying elevated into
Saturday. Winds remain easterly for Sunday, but will be lighter
with gusts to 10 to 15 knots, highest in the western arm.
Stronger winds are expected on Monday, again from the east,
ahead of the next system. There is the potential for some gales
Monday into Monday night with this system.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Moisture will remain in place through the weekend keeping
afternoon RH values above 50%. After this morning`s rainfall
ends, the next real chance for rainfall arrives Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. This activity may be strong to severe.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Labor
Day Monday into Tuesday as a large system moves through the
region. This system may bring some hefty rainfall amounts. Winds
will remain under 15 mph through the weekend before increasing
heading into next week with gusts to 20 to 30 mph possible
Monday into Monday night.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH