696
FXUS63 KDLH 190530
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of smoky conditions continue through the weekend, although
  not as widespread as the previous couple of days.

- Rain and storm chances return tomorrow with the best chances
  being Sunday night into Monday. Strong to severe storms will
  be possible.

- Strong northwest winds on Tuesday may lead to more widespread
  coverage of smoke across the Northland

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Surface high pressure resides along the MN and Dakotas border this
afternoon with light wind streaming in from the north. Satellite
shows the smokes from the wildfires up north across the
Arrowhead and into portions of NW WI, but not nearly as dense
as it has been over the last few days. As such the MPCA has made
some modifications to the Air Quality Alert with the hazardous
areas being confined to the Arrowhead and the Twin Ports, NW WI
has also downgraded the severity from hazardous to Unhealthy.
Upon looking at the latest smoke plume modeling from the HRRR,
the highest concentrations this afternoon are over the Arrowhead
and spilling over Bayfield and east. As we head into the
evening hours these pollutants mix more with the marine layer
and spread back into the Twin Ports. Winds will also be veering
with time which will allow the large plume of smoke over the UP
and eastern WI to filter back into the Northland.

Sunday:

Some lingering smoke in the morning hours will be possible across NW
WI, the Twin Ports and the Arrowhead. Southwest to westerly winds
will begin to stream across the region as high pressure scoots to
the east. Smoke and air quality conditions will improve through the
afternoon.

An upper level ridge will be in place over the region but an
embedded shortwave is expected to ride along its edge and could
produce some light rain showers (20% chance) across the
International Border in the afternoon. The better chances for
precipitation look to arrive in the overnight hours via an
occluded system traversing across Manitoba and into Ontario.
Placement and exact timing of the bands of precipitation remain
contested when comparing the available high res guidance. Warm
sector precipitation can always get tricky with where the best
forcing of ascent will line up. Most of the guidance seems to be
keying in on a strong shortwave that ejects out of the Northern
Plains ahead of an upper level jet. MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg with an EML will help to grow some elevated storms with
damaging winds and large hail being the primary threat Sunday
night into Monday morning.

Monday/Tuesday:

Continued shower and storm chances for Monday as the low pressure
system in Canada meanders to the southeast. It`s associated
cold front will also slide through the region leading to a wind
shift from out of the southwest to out of the west. Pending
placement of the cold front we will see strong to severe storms
develop once again. The convective parameter space looks
increasingly favorable for Monday with high MLCAPE and strong
upper level shear available for supercell growth. Increased low
level helicity may also support a tornado threat to go along
with the hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk (1/5)
for MN and a slight risk (2/5) for NW WI.

Tuesday should be a dry forecast but an increasing pressure gradient
over the region will lead to strong northerly winds. This may
lead to another round of widespread Air Quality Alerts as smoke
plumes from the wildfires could engulf the region once again.

Midweek

Winds weaken on Wednesday as high pressure moves over the region.
Next chances for precipitation arrive on Thursday behind the
departure of the high pressure. Not a lot of consistency among the
suite of 12Z deterministic guidance but there are signals for a
few ridge runners within our northwest flow to spawn some rain.
For now we are carrying PoPs of 20-30% through Friday with
Friday having more widespread coverage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across northeastern Minnesota
through the period with MVFR visibilities across northwest
Wisconsin early this morning due to smoke. DLH will see some of
this smoke as well, but VSBYs are expected to remain VFR. Smoke
moves out after sunrise this morning with VFR conditions through
the remainder of the period. There is a low chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm at INL late in the period, but
confidence on timing and coverage is low. Better chances for INL
and perhaps HOB and DLH will arrive after 06z Monday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Light and variable winds across the Lake this afternoon with patchy
areas of smoke still present. Tomorrow, winds will turn to out of
the southwest around 5-10 knots, smoke may also become more dense,
particularly along the North Shore where the HRRR is hinting at
greatly reduced visibilities. Wind speeds will further increase
Sunday night with a few gusts around 20 kts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Surface high pressure will be moving across the region this
afternoon and through tomorrow leading to a low wind threat. Min RHs
are expected to be 35-45% across the region with the driest
conditions expected over the Brainerd Lakes region.

Rain chances return late Sunday into Monday. Some isolated showers
will be possible across the Arrowhead in the afternoon on Sunday,
but the better chances for more widespread rain arrives overnight
and into Monday morning. There will be the threat of strong to
severe storms with damaging winds and hail as the primary
hazards. The current forecast for rain is largely 0.25-0.50"
but if a thunderstorm manages to go over an area the totals
could be in excess of an inch.

Monday will see continued rain chances with an increase in winds out
of the west. Tuesday will see a wind shift to out of the north with
wind gusts of 25 mph possible.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt