001
FXUS63 KDLH 141740
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1140 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more warm day is in store, with temperatures in the 50s
  and low 60s.

- Light rain is possible tonight into Saturday. A few flakes
  within the rain are possible in colder temperatures.
  Accumulations will be little to none.

- Temperatures will decrease closer to normal early next week
  and remain dry until another warm up and more precipitation
  chances later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Warm air advection continues today, with temperatures even
warmer than yesterday. Widespread 50s and a few 60s along the
I-35 corridor and in the Brainerd Lakes area. As a trough
approaches, pressure gradients will tighten, leading to
strengthening winds out of the south. Sustained winds 10-15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph throughout the day today.

Saturday, the cold front associated with the trough will move
through the Northland, bringing chances for precipitation.
Moisture with this system is limited, and it will need to work
to saturate the column before rain reaches the surface. With
these conditions, any accumulations will be little to none. As
temperatures decrease behind the cold front, any lingering
showers could see a few snowflakes mixed in, but the majority of
the precipitation should fall where conditions are still warm
and chances for snow mixed in continue to decrease. Winds will
reach their peak for Saturday as well. Winds will switch to the
northwest and increase during the morning with gusts reaching
around 30 mph CWA wide for the late morning and afternoon. For
the North Shore, CAA will be its strongest Saturday afternoon
and evening, which could cause (30% chance) occasional gusts
35-40 mph.

Temperatures will decrease closer to normal as a high pressure
moves over, with dry conditions and high temperatures in the
mid to upper 30s into the mid week. Another warm up is expected
with a ridge in the mid to late week, and chances for
precipitation also return. Global models still disagree on
placement and timing of precipitation, but agree of
precipitation occurring at some point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Changes are to account for changing wind directions and speed as
a front moves through the region tonight. Southerly winds this
afternoon will turn northwesterly overnight. Some breezy
conditions are expected this afternoon in spots with gusts to 15
to 20 knots, mainly at BRD and HYR. As winds drop off around
sunset, a low level jet will lead to low level wind shear that
will affect DLH and HYR through the evening hours before the jet
shifts to the east. There may be a few light showers ahead of
the cold front, but with much dry air near the surface, most of
this is expected to be virga, so have kept dry conditions in
place. Winds pick up once again after sunrise Saturday morning
with gusts to 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 118 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Southerly winds will be up to 15 kts today as a system begins to
approach from the west. A cold front will move through tonight
and winds will switch to the northwest and increase to 25-30
kt gusts throughout the day Saturday. Small Craft Advisories
will be needed, and there is a small chance (10-30%) for gales
particularly for portions of the North Shore and around the
Apostle Islands. While winds will decrease for Sunday, they will
remain hazardous to small craft for the majority of the day.
Winds are expected to decrease below 20 kts early Monday.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...KML