506
FXUS63 KDLH 041739
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1139 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers will move through the region today into tonight.
  Overall accumulations will be under 2 inches, but some higher
  amounts are possible along parts of the North Shore along with
  some heavier snowfall rates.

- Another chance for light show showers arrives for tomorrow
  into tomorrow night.

- Another shot of cooler air arrives for the weekend with
  continued cold temperatures into next week. Multiple chances
  for snow showers will be seen through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

High pressure was located over southern Minnesota and Iowa this
morning with mainly clear skies across the region. Some lake-
effect cloud cover was observed downwind of Lake Superior across
northwestern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. The ridge axis was
passing through the Northland with winds turning southerly
across our western zones in its wake. These southerly winds will
start to advect some warmer air northward for today into
tomorrow. Highs today will reach into the teens with lows
tonight in the teens and single digits above zero.

As the high pushes further south through the day, a northern
stream clipper will pass through for this afternoon and tonight.
This will see an area of low pressure move from near Lake
Winnipeg this evening to just southwest of James Bay by Friday
morning. Models keep most of the QPF along or to the north of
the International Border with this system, but snow showers will
be possible across much of the region as the cold front moves
through. Ahead of the cold front, CAMs continue to advertise a
convergence band developing over western Lake Superior this
morning and lifting northward to the North Shore by early
afternoon. This will bring light snow to that area before the
main synoptic system arrives. There are some hints that there
could be some moderate snowfall at times later this afternoon,
mainly across the Minnesota Arrowhead. This may lead to snowfall
rates of a half to three quarters of an inch per hour, but will
be rather brief. Snowfall totals for today and tonight will be
around an inch or less for most with the highest amounts along
the International Border. An area of enhanced snowfall is also
possible in the Grand Marais to Grand Portage area with 2 to 4
inches possible along the terrain ridge, especially if the
convergence band develops.

Heading into Friday, another clipper will drop out of the
Canadian Prairies and into the Upper Midwest. This will will
move across the southern half of Minnesota, bringing better
snowfall chances to our southern zones through the day Friday
into Friday evening. At the same time, we`ll still be in a cold
cyclonic flow regime from today`s clipper, so light snow showers
will be possible across the entire Northland through the day.
Not to be outdone, lake-effect snow showers will linger across
Iron County during this time period as well. This activity will
all end Friday night into early Saturday morning as another
area of cold high pressure works in from the west. Snowfall
totals Friday will be around an inch or less across northeastern
Minnesota with an inch to perhaps 2 inches in northern Iron
County. Highs Friday will reach into the 20s with lows in the
single digits above and below zero as another shot of cold air
arrives.

A mainly dry and cold weekend is in store for the Northland with
highs in the single digits and teens above zero along with lows
in the teens and single digits below zero. Another northern
stream clipper looks to dive southeast into the Plains Saturday
night and merge with a potential Colorado low. This system will
likely remain to our south, but may bring some snow showers to
our far southern zones on Sunday. Heading into next week,
temperatures will moderate into the teens and 20s above zero for
highs. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain active with multiple
chances for snow into mid-week, but models disagree on timing
and location at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A double dose of light snowfall is expected over the TAF period.
First, a clipper will move across the Iron Range this evening and
will affect INL, HIB, and possibly DLH, which is covered by a
PROB30. IFR conditions are expected at INL, where the heaviest
snowfall is expected, and MVFR to the south with occasional
drops to IFR. Second, a smaller system passing just to our south
will lead to light snow across our southern area, affecting BRD,
HYR, DLH, and possibly HIB (PROB30). Conditions will largely be
MVFR, but IFR conditions are possible with areas of heavier
snowfall. Strong southwest winds today up to 25 kts will
decrease overnight as the systems move out of the region.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 500 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Winds will turn southwesterly this morning and increase to 15
to 25 knots with gales to 35 to 40 knots along the North Shore
and Outer Apostle Islands. Gale Warnings and Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for today and tonight. Waves of 7 to
10 feet are expected along parts of the North Shore this
afternoon and tonight with higher waves to 12 feet possible in
the Grand Marais to Grand Portage zone. Winds then turn westerly
on Friday and decrease to 10 to 20 knots before becoming
northwesterly Friday night into Saturday at 10 to 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-145>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ140>144-150.
     Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140>144-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BJH