853
FXUS63 KDLH 040609
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
109 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-freezing and below-freezing temperatures expected Sunday
  night. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect.

- Warmer weather starting Tuesday.

- Sparse rain chances this week, but a few sprinkles or showers
  at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Dry air is working its way in from the west, quickly eroding
most of the clouds that brought us rain earlier today. Some low
clouds north of the Canadian border may make their way into the
Arrowhead for Sunday morning. Otherwise, look for mostly sunny
skies out there today with highs in the 50s to a few degrees
over 60. Post-cold frontal gusty winds are expected today too,
with the strongest gusts expected in the Arrowhead where the
pressure gradient will be the tightest.

Tonight, high pressure settles in and it will bring mostly clear
skies and light winds. It should be a pretty good radiational
cooling night. Of course, it`s another night where expected lows
are hovering around freezing, so delineating who gets a Frost
Advisory versus who gets a Freeze Warning is the challenge. Much
of northeast Minnesota away from Lake Superior and north of US-2
has the best chance for seeing some around or just below
freezing temperatures (~30-80% chance with the highest chances
in the typical low spots). I was generous with Freeze Warnings
there. In Northwest Wisconsin, the best chances for a freeze are
in interior Iron/Ashland counties and a bit into northern Price
county (30-70% chance), maybe sneaking into parts of
Douglas/Bayfield/Sawyer/Burnett counties a bit (30-50% chance).
I think there is some potential for very slightly colder
temperatures than most models suggest, but on the other hand,
if winds remain even a little higher than currently forecast
(which they could), that could negate cooling a bit. All said, I
issued a Freeze Warning for Ashland/Iron counties, but left all
others as a Frost Advisory. There could be some minor headline
changes today depending on how things look with the next
forecast update early this afternoon.

Temperatures should warm up nicely Monday morning with southerly
flow developing through the day with warm advection. For now,
the forecast is dry, but we`ll have to keep an eye on the
potential for some showers to develop Monday afternoon and
evening. There may be a little instability associated with the
warm air advection that could promote a little rain. Otherwise,
a low pressure system is looking to pass across/just north of
the Canadian Border going into Tuesday, and most of the rain
associated with that should be well into Ontario. We should see
temperatures warm up into the upper 60s and 70s with a warmer
air mass moving in.

A weak cold front Wednesday should drop temperatures just a
smidge, but they`ll still be pretty warm for this time of year.
There could be some stray wraparound showers, but confidence
isn`t really high at this time. Expect northwest flow Thursday
with slightly cooler temperatures, then another warmup with
southerly flow again going into the weekend and possibly a
little rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Some MVFR clouds are hanging on at HYR, but these will move out
within an hour. Additional low clouds will be in the vicinity of
INL as they move south from Ontario tonight. Most guidance keeps
any MVFR ceilings east of INL and satellite seems to be in
agreement, so I didn`t mention it in TAFs at this time. Wind
speeds may briefly decrease overnight, but become breezy from
the northwest again on Sunday. There`s a 20-30% chance that low
clouds could affect DLH in the early morning, but otherwise,
expect VFR conditions at all terminals through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Small Craft Advisories have been expanded into early this
evening for most nearshore waters as breezy northwest winds
gusting to around 20-30 kt are expected. Expect winds to
decrease from west to east gradually today as high pressure
moves in. Winds will become lighter Sunday night and eventually
switch to southerly Monday afternoon. Breezy south to southeast
winds are possible late Monday night into Tuesday, and
additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Breezy northwest winds are expected to develop today along with
dry weather. Min RH is expected to fall to around 35 to 45
percent. Fire weather conditions should be minimal with recent
rainfall. A slightly drier day is in the forecast for Monday
with RH falling towards 30 percent for parts of northwest
Wisconsin. However, winds will be pretty light that day. For the
rest of the week, expect temperatures to warm up early in the
week, then decrease very slightly by Thursday/Friday. Rain
chances will be sparse, and RH is looking pretty low on
Wednesday along with gusty northwest winds. Fire weather
conditions may be a bit elevated Wednesday and possibly
lingering into Thursday and Friday (though wind speeds less a
bit late-week).

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ020-021-025-
     026-035>038.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012-018-
     019.
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-002-
     006>008.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ141-
     142-146>148-150.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for LSZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144-
     145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS