297
FXUS63 KDLH 012344
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
544 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog has cleared, but is likely to return tonight in the Twin
  Ports and up the North Shore

- Widespread rain showers are expected Monday through Wednesday,
  with total accumulations of 1-2 inches expected. Brainerd
  Lakes and the North Shore will likely have the highest
  rainfall values.

- Temperatures closer to normal and continued cloudiness will
  continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Fog has finally cleared earlier this morning as warm air is
advected into the region along a warm front. For the afternoon,
the blob of rain over northeast Minnesota this morning will
continue its trek northeast through the Arrowhead this afternoon,
though any rain will be brief and any accumulations are
expected to be little to none. Aside from this passing moisture,
expect dry and mild conditions across the Northland for the
rest of the afternoon. Strong warm air advection will push
temperatures well into the 60s and a few around 70 for inland
locations. Clouds will thicken across the area again tonight
ahead of the next system.

Rain showers will spread across the region on Monday through
Tuesday as a deep upper level trough and subsequent large low
pressure system move into the central United States. An
anomalous moisture plume forecast to be above the 90th
climatological percentile will bring a soaking rainfall to the
area. Quick pressure falls ahead of the system will lead to
breezy conditions, with southeast winds gusting between 20 and
30 mph by Monday afternoon. The heaviest rainfall rates are
anticipated during the Monday afternoon and evening hours. There
is still quite a spread of QPF values for this system, This is
especially true for the Brainerd Lakes area and within an
orographic enhancement band along the North Shore, where
accumulations between 1.5-2.5 inches are possible. Initial QPF
values for Tuesday seemed to have jumped dramatically compared
to previous runs, so we opted to try and tamper them down a bit
to get QPF values to better match with other ensemble guidance.
Even so, most of the area has a very high chance (80%+) of
seeing at least an inch of rain.

Isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday as some
weak instability gets added to the mix, though severe weather is
not anticipated. Light precipitation will gradually taper off
from west to east through Wednesday afternoon as the center of
the low pressure system briefly stalls over the Northland and
then slowly departs into the Great Lakes, leaving cool and
cloudy conditions into Thursday.

High pressure will build into the Northland for late Thursday
and Friday, bringing an end to the wet pattern. Drier conditions
will prevail for the end of the week, though mostly cloudy
skies will linger. Cooler air filtering in behind the departing
system will return our temperatures to seasonal norms. Expect
highs back near normal into the 40s with overnight lows
dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s heading into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Mid to high level clouds are currently streaming across the area
this evening, with southeast winds at 5-8kts. Low levels remain
moist, and expect low clouds to spread from Lake Superior inland
tonight, with MVFR cigs at all terminals and as low as IFR at
terminals closest to the Lake. Fog is also possible,
particularly at DLH and HIB, and will need to watch for vis
dropping to below 1 mile before sunrise.

Showers will spread into the Northland from the southwest
Monday morning, with VCSH at BRD by 10Z. Activity will become
more widespread and spread to the north and east through the
morning, with rain continuing through the taf period. MVFR to
IFR visibilities are possible with the heaviest rainfall.
Southeast winds will also increase with the approach of the
system Monday morning as gusts up to 25 kts are expected.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Relatively quiet conditions are expected for the rest of the
afternoon on Western Lake Superior with variable winds under 10
knots and waves 1 foot or less. Easterly winds will increase
significantly on Monday and Monday night as low pressure moves
into the Upper Midwest. Wind gusts up to 25 knots are possible
in brief periods, particularly near the Twin Ports. However,
unless these winds increase further or become more widespread,
Small Craft Advisories will likely not be needed. Waves will
build to 1 to 3 feet in response. Widespread rain will occur
Monday into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain minimal through the entire
forecast period as a very wet pattern takes hold and minimum
relative humidity values remain elevated. Widespread soaking
rain is expected Monday through Wednesday, with most of the area
expected to see 1-2 inches of rain throughout the couple days.
Winds for the rest of today will generally be out of the south
to southeast around 5 to 10 mph. Southeast winds will increase
on Monday, gusting 20 to 30 mph, before shifting to the north on
Tuesday. Cooler and drier weather arrives late week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML