588
FXUS63 KDLH 150014
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
714 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of scattered rain showers and isolated non-severe
thunderstorms are possible across the Northland through the day
Saturday, with the best chance across northern Minnesota and the
International Border.

- Next chance for precipitation Monday afternoon into Tuesday. A few
stronger storms could be possible.

- Near normal temperatures persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

While conditions are fairly mundane this afternoon, increasing
clouds and chances for precipitation are expected overnight and
through the day Saturday. As the tip of an upper level ridge
propagates over our area, a return of moisture along with some 500mb
vort maxes should be enough to spur the development of areas of
scattered rain showers with a weak surface low pressure system. All
together, the forcing is weak and ongoing convection to the south
could limit the amount of available moisture. Most rainfall amounts
will probably be 0.1-0.25" or less. A narrow swath of instability
could spur some thunderstorm development but no severe storms are
expected. Precipitation activity will likely come in the form of on
and off light to moderate rain showers beginning late tonight into
early Saturday morning and continuing through most of the day and
possibly into the evening. Most precipitation should dissipate
overnight into Sunday. However, warm late summer water temperatures
on Lake Superior will be met with cool overnight temperatures
sweeping in from the northwest Saturday night. This could lead to
some light lake effect rain along the South Shore Sunday morning
before air temperatures warm up.

Beyond the morning lake effect, Sunday should be a mostly dry day
with dropping dew points. That drier airmass sticks around through
Monday midday before the next area of increased PWATs starts to push
in from the Dakotas. That moisture should converge along a cold
front stemming from a shortwave disturbance to our north and sweep
over the Northland late Monday into Tuesday. Pockets of instability
mixed with 40-50 knots bulk shear may be able to develop some
stronger to isolated severe storms, but time of day (overnight)
could limit the severe threat.

As we remain on the north side of the ridge through the 7 day
period, expect temperatures to stay largely right around normal with
high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail into tonight before ceilings lower
to MVFR to IFR as showers move in. Most likely timing for
showers will be after midnight through mid to late morning
across the Minnesota terminals. Arrival/coverage at HYR is much
more uncertain with most models keeping much of northwest
Wisconsin dry. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
late Saturday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include at
this time. MVFR visibilities will likely linger Saturday morning
and afternoon with areas of drizzle. Gusty winds this afternoon
will diminish this evening and remain under 10 knots for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Strong northeast winds continue today, with speeds gradually
declining overnight into Saturday. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect. A steady northeast breeze is expected to continue
through the day Saturday with scattered rain showers and
isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible. Overnight into
Sunday, winds will switch to become northwesterly with a few
gusts up to 15 knots possible, particularly along the North
Shore. Expect a gradual shift from northwest to southwest into
and through the day Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Increasing clouds are expected today, along with a light southeast
breeze, which may gust 15-20 mph overnight. Late tonight the first
rain showers could start to enter north-central Minnesota with
increasing chances across the Northland through the day Saturday.
Precipitation activity will likely come in the form of on and off
light to moderate rain showers beginning late tonight into early
Saturday morning and continuing through most of the day and possibly
into the evening. Some light rain could persist into Sunday morning
along the South Shore of Lake Superior. Rainfall amounts have
trended back up slightly, generally expecting 0.1-0.25" or less,
with the possibility of some locally slightly higher totals with any
non-severe thunderstorms that develop. Sunday will see northwest
flow return, along with drier air. Afternoon RH will likely drop
back into the 30-45% range, but could be locally affected by any
areas that receive higher rainfall amounts the previous day. That
drier air will stick around into Monday before a cold front moves
through late Monday into Tuesday bringing the next chance of
precipitation.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     147-148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Levens
FIRE WEATHER...Levens