777
FXUS63 KDLH 042332
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
632 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues tomorrow before a cool down next week,
  with frost possible at times.

- Elevated winds combined with relatively dry conditions will
  lead to near critical fire weather conditions again Sunday.

- Chances for showers and storms increase tonight into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Strong southerly flow aloft ahead of a low pressure sitting in
the western Dakotas will continue to cause much warmer than
average temperatures across the Northland. In addition, the
stationary front associated with the system will lead to
continuous rounds of showers and storms along the front in
northwestern Minnesota. Some storms could reach as far east as
the International Falls area, though they should stay to the
west overall. Storms will remain aloft due to the strong cap
aloft, but cannot rule out some small hail and an occasional
strong wind gust with these storms through the evening.

Though not quite as hot, temperatures will remain in the 70s
across much of the area tomorrow. Minimum RHs will reach as low
as 40% in the afternoon, and winds will increase to 20-25 mph
with gusts as high as 40 mph. These windy and relatively dry
conditions could lead to quickly spreading fires. Sunday
afternoon and evening, the front out west will begin to move
east through the Northland, leading to another chance for
showers and storms. However, low level dry air will keep much of
the precipitation from reaching the ground, and most areas
won`t see much more than a tenth of an inch of rain. Very little
instability and lingering convective inhibition keep chances for
strong storms very low. Again, however, an occasional damaging
wind gust being mixed down to the surface from a storm is not
out of the question.

A large upper level low system will bring cool, fall-like air
will dip down over the area with a surface high pressure Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday night will reach
down into the 30s and 40s and below freezing in the Iron Range
Tuesday night. Frost is possible both nights, but especially
Tuesday night. This high pressure quickly moves through the CWA
and southerly flow returns Wednesday and temperatures once
again increase, though are only expected to reach the 60s for
the latter half of the week. Global models are hinting at more
chances for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder during this
time, but confidence is low of whether it will move right over
the area or mainly remain in Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A strong area of south-southwesterly winds at 40-50 knots sets
up over the Northland tonight and is creating the low-level wind
shear expected through 12-14Z tomorrow morning. Nocturnal winds
remain 5-15kts from the south-southeast tonight at the surface
under that strong area of winds just off the surface. A few
showers and an isolated thunderstorm remain possible at
International Falls a few hours either side of both 06 and 14Z
tonight and tomorrow morning as a stationary front extends into
Ontario front northwest Minnesota. Expect a very quick mix out
of those gusty and strong winds from 12-14Z. Daytime gusts of
30-40 knots are likely tomorrow ahead of a cold front that
passes through the region 18-03Z. A wind shift to westerly then
northwesterly will occur with this cold frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Increasing winds out of the south to southwest is currently
affecting the South Shore with winds 25-30 kts reaching the
shore. These winds are expected to further increase tonight into
Sunday. Waves are also expected to increase over 4 ft along the
North Shore on Sunday. Gales are possible closer to the
afternoon and into the night, especially along the far northern
portions of the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories and Gale
Watches are in effect for all the near shore waters of western
Lake Superior. Winds will decrease and switch to the northwest
late Sunday night due to a passing cold front, which will bring
scattered showers to the lake as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Below are the records and forecast temperatures for today and
Sunday that could potentially be broken or tied.

Record Warm Low Temperatures:

October 4: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      57       58/1914
KINL:      67       60/1914
KBRD:      68       60/1914
KHIB:      61       54/1969

October 5:
KASX:      57       56/1975

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-144>148-
     150.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Sunday for LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...KML
CLIMATE...JDS