547
FXUS63 KDLH 072002
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry the rest of today before a quick moving system brings
  showers late tonight into Saturday morning

- Drier conditions to start the week with no notable
  precipitation chances

- Active pattern returns on Tuesday and into late week with
  multiple shots of precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Short Term:

Today will end today with quite pleasant conditions with highs
topping off in the lower 70s amidst mostly sunny and dry
conditions. At the synoptic level, we are sitting in northwest
flow with multiple troughs sitting in a line from the Canadian
Prairies through the Great lakes and towards the East Coast.
Accompanying them is a large ridge straddling the Western half
of the US leading to primarily northwest flow aloft over us in
the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. With that in mind,
through today we will continue to see cumulus clouds that will
continue to grow into tonight as a shortwave trough drops out of
Canada. This will lead to enough lift for some showers and
storms starting late this evening and continuing into early
Saturday morning. Some quick downpours and gusty winds are all
that are to be expected with these scattered storms through
tonight. Rain should exit the area by late morning with drier
conditions taking hold until later that afternoon. Steep lapse
rates with enough insolation following the morning rain should
allow for up to 500-1000 joules of MUCAPE to develop. While
there will be enough shear aloft, these low topped storms (EL
~400mb), may not be able to fully utilize it meaning that these
storms would be of the popcorn variety that quickly form and die
just as rapidly. Small hail and gusty winds would be possible
in the strongest storms.

Extended Range:

Much of the Northland will dry out Saturday night as diurnal
changes will put a cap to any convection in the area.
Furthermore, by this time, the trough centered over the Canadian
Prairies will finally meander to our SE putting the best
forcing for ascent well displaced from our area and limiting
convection chances. To close out the weekend, ridging will
return to the Northern Plains which will put an end to any
precipitation for a few days to start the work week. As a few
shortwaves enter Western Canada and rapidly move eastward along
the Canadian/US border within enhanced flow aloft, our next shot
for precipitation arrives Tuesday with showers and storms
possible. Heading into late week, conditions across the
Northland look to warm up with much more humid conditions than
days prior. A persistent leeside trough will induce strong
southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday onwards.
Temperatures during this period will be pushing into the 80s
with dewpoints pushing into the 50s and 60s making it feel even
warmer especially away from the lake.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Northwest winds gusting ot 20 knots through 22Z-00Z this evening
decrease and back westerly overnight. An area of light to
moderate rain showers moves through the central and southern
parts of the Northland after 03Z Saturday and lasting through
12Z in northwest Wisconsin. Isolated rain showers are then
expected Saturday morning. Only MVFR visibility and ceilings are
expected from the rain showers tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Northwest winds along the far northern North Shore decrease
below 20 knots by early this evening. Westerly winds tonight and
Saturday are largely expected to be below 20 knots before
shifting back to northwesterly Sunday and may create a period of
hazardous conditions to small craft. An isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out Saturday daytime.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KP/NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy