584
FXUS63 KDLH 150555
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will bring up temperatures Sunday into Monday.

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday.

- Occasional rain and storm chances the rest of next week with
  warm summertime temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

June will return by early next week, as a ridge of high
pressure over Ontario finally slides east, winds become
southerly and bring warmer air into the region Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures today have remained on the chilly side
beneath cloud cover and with easterly flow off Lake Superior.
Areas along and north of the Iron Range have been closer to
normal values for this time of year, with sunshine helping to
offset the still easterly winds. Sunday winds in general become
southerly, and even though I expect more cloud cover farther
north, temperatures should warm into the mid 60s to low 70s
everywhere. It will still be cooler by the lake, but perhaps
we will be shivering less than they have the last couple days.
Our warmest day this week should be Monday, with a good surge of
warmer temperatures being pushed in from the south.

Showers that have lingered across Price county this morning
have finally shifted off to the east out of the forecast area.
There is now a new MCV like structure developing over northeast
SD/southeast ND moving into Minnesota this afternoon. The bulk
of this will slide across central Minnesota overnight, so have
kept some chance pops going along the southern border of the CWA
overnight into Sunday morning. Another stronger shortwave
should move across Minnesota on Sunday, but with the better
instability more over southern Minnesota, the stronger
convection should be limited to central or southern Minnesota.
While the bulk of this should miss our forecast area again, but
have again kept some slight to chance pops going over the
southern portions of the CWA through Sunday.

Monday we have a similar set-up, but with the warmer air
progged to surge farther north, we may manage to get some better
instability and shear into the forecast area, which may result
in some strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and evening.
This severe weather risk is going to be conditional upon getting
some warmer temperatures and sunshine into at least central
Minnesota. Even if we do not get severe storms, am much more
confident of getting rainfall Monday evening for a large portion
of the forecast area, especially as a trough axis moves across
the area Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday will remain seasonably warm. There will
be periodic chances for showers and storms with a broad nearly
zonal upper level flow with shortwaves running across the
region. Timing is going to be tricky so we have some smaller
pops through much of this time frame, but I expect we will be
able to narrow these down a day or two out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to overspread back north into
BRD/DLH/HIB in the next 2-4 hours. IFR ceilings are already
present at HYR, and are expected to persist through the morning,
eventually lifting to MVFR. Some light fog may develop tonight
as well, though most models suggest that dense fog is unlikely.
The low ceilings may persist well into the day on Sunday for
BRD/HYR, but likely breaking up to VFR mid to late morning at
DLH/HIB. Rain chances have decreased substantially for Sunday,
and only a glimmer of a chance (~15%) around HYR in the evening.
Winds are expected to remain at or below 10 kt and shift
gradually from easterly tonight to southeasterly this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Breezy northeast winds will continue to diminish for the rest of
this afternoon and evening, with gusts gradually diminishing to
15 knots or less. Waves are still around 3 feet, but these too
are on a diminishing trend and will allow the Small Craft
Advisory to expire here at 4 pm. Winds will remain predominantly
out of the northeast Sunday, but will be lighter with speeds of
10 to 15 knots. Expect some occasional rain chances (20-30%)
mainly on Sunday and Sunday night, with a few rumbles of thunder
possible Sunday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...LE