209
FXUS63 KDLH 021803
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1203 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall is expected early this week as a large low
  pressure system moves through the Upper Midwest. Amounts of at
  least 1" are expected across the area today through Wednesday.

- There is the potential for more significant rain totals today
  through Wednesday in excess of 2 to 3 inches, especially in
  north- central Minnesota and in the higher terrain of the
  North Shore.

- A drier pattern with cooler temperatures is favored to develop
  in the latter half of the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Overcast skies are occurring early this morning ahead of approaching
low pressure. A deep trough is currently moving through the
Intermountain West early this morning, which will be propagating a
sfc low into the central CONUS and Upper Midwest early this week.
Similar to the previous forecast update, QPF is expected to be
anomalously high, exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology.
Expect widespread rain to move across the CWA today as the
deformation zone of the large low pressure moves through. While
precip will mostly be moderate rain, there will be a few embedded
rumbles of thunder likely.

Rainfall rates are anticipated to lessen tonight through Tuesday
morning as the dry conveyor belt brings a shot of drier air into the
CWA. While rain is unlikely to end completely across the region,
coverage will go from widespread to much more scattered during this
time period. Redevelopment of more widespread rain is forecast to
occur Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night as a shortwave dives
south from northern Manitoba and causes the deep trough to shift
into the Upper Great Lakes region. As the deep trough moves farther
east, this will allow for additional Gulf moisture advection.

One major change made in the forecast update this morning is an
overall increase in total QPF amounts. Run-to-run model comparisons
maintain higher amounts of QPF in the 1-2" range and the latest NBM
probability of 2" or greater of rainfall in north-central MN and the
North Shore terrain ridge are exceeding an 80% chance. These high
probabilities are also reflected in total QPF from the REFS, which
further increases confidence in higher rainfall amounts. Locally
higher amounts are certainly possible, as the 75th percentile of QPF
from the REFS in north-central MN shows the potential for 3+" by
early Wednesday morning. With D1 to D4 drought persisting across the
CWA, this widespread and soaking rain will certainly be welcome.

Light rain will gradually taper off from west to east Wednesday
night through Thursday as the center of the low pressure system
briefly stalls over the Northland and then slowly departs
downstream. As this low pressure departs the region, cooler air
filters in, with high temps being noticeably cooler in the
40s on Thursday.

High pressure builds into the CWA starting late Thursday, bringing
an end to the wet pattern. Drier conditions will prevail for the end
of the week, with some breaks in the clouds occurring on Friday into
the weekend. While skies are still favored to see at least partly
cloudy skies, there will be more sunshine than what we will be
seeing early this week. The cooler temps that arrive on Thursday
persist on Friday through the weekend with near normal highs in the
40s and overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain showers will continue for TAF period, causing MVFR/IFR
conditions to linger at all terminals. There may be some
improvement in the morning before the next round of rain showers
brings conditions back down again. LLWS is also expected at DLH
at DLH, HYR, and BRD this afternoon as the low level jet moves
through aloft.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Southeast to east winds will be increasing today as a large area of
low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes region. Winds have
increased slightly in the latest forecast update and therefore a
Small Craft Advisory has been issued from oak Point to Saxon Harbor
this afternoon into tonight as winds gust up to 25 knots. In
addition, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Silver Bay to
Grand Portage, as southeasterly winds today will bring the potential
for elevated waves up to 5 feet, in addition to brief afternoon
gusts up to 25 knots. Expect widespread rain to occur today,
becoming more scattered tonight into Tuesday morning. Additional
widespread rain returns Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Significant rainfall occurring early this week as a large area of
low pressure slowly moves through the Upper Midwest will keep fire
weather concerns minimal. Total rainfall today through Wednesday is
expected (70-100% chance) to be at least 1" across the region.
Higher amounts of 2-3" are certainly not out of the question today
through Wednesday, especially in north-central MN and in the higher
terrain of the North Shore. Expect southeast winds to become strong
this afternoon and evening, gusting 20-30 mph. Winds ease and become
more variable on Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure moves
through. Expect winds to shift to the north-northwest across the
region by Thursday morning following a cold front, with a drier
pattern moving in for Friday into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM CST
     Tuesday for LSZ140>142-148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Unruh
FIRE WEATHER...Unruh