836
FXUS63 KDLH 112147
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
347 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for a wintry mix in the Arrowhead and north-central
  WI this afternoon and tonight. Snow accumulations through
  tonight are expected to be 0.5" or less.

- A dry pattern settles over the region starting tomorrow for
  the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures will become
  unseasonably warm, with highs reaching the mid 40s to low 50s
  for most by Friday.

- The next chance for precipitation arrives this weekend ahead
  of a cold front with precipitation type likely to be rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

We have a chance for a wintry mix this afternoon and tonight as
a shortwave moves across Ontario. In the wake of this system,
we should have an area of lingering stratus this evening.
Beneath the stratus, there may be some light precipitation, as
wintry mixture. Ptype is going to be a bit tricky as there are
some hints we may lose ice aloft, which would produce freezing
drizzle instead of a simpler rain/snow mixture. Have stuck to
the rain/snow mix for now, but we may need to make adjustments
later this evening.

A quiet pattern is expected to settle over the CWA for the
remainder of the workweek. A ridge building over the central
CONUS will bring warmer temperatures to the area, with high
temps on Friday and Saturday in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The next
best chance for precip is still on track to arrive this weekend
as a cold front sweeps through the CWA, with p-type most likely
being rain. Early indications show that thunderstorms may occur
on Saturday afternoon in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front, but the potential is very low at this time (<10% chance).

Another period of generally quiet weather is expected early
next week with another ridge of high pressure building into the
area. Temperatures cool back off to near normal values, with
highs in the 30s to around 40 and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

An area of MVFR stratus has spread over most of the terminals as
of issuance time. KINL, KHIB and possibly also KDLH may get some
showers/sprinkles this afternoon, though visibilities should
remain VFR. KBRD is closest to the edge and is likely to
fluctuate between VFR and MVFR for a few hours before clearing.
These are on the southwest flank of a low pressure system, that
will move east tonight as a drier airmass moves into the area.
This will produce improvement to VFR for all terminals by 06z
tonight. West to southwest winds this afternoon will be shifting
to the west-northwest this afternoon and evening with breezy
conditions.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 30 knots
today will gradually veer to the northwest tonight. The
strongest wind gusts will be over the open waters and around the
Apostle islands tonight, where waves will build to 4 to 6 feet.
Winds will increase still further on Wednesday, there will be a
10-30% chance for a few gale force gusts from Grand Marais to
Grand Portage and in the Outer Apostle Islands. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for all of western Lake Superior through
Wednesday evening. Winds will slowly diminish Wednesday night
with northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 knots expected for Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for
     LSZ121-141>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE