113
FXUS63 KDLH 081942
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and non-severe thunderstorms are possible through this
evening. Expect widespread fog to develop overnight, especially near
Lake Superior.

- A cold front brings another round of showers and thunderstorms
very late Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous
severe storms with all hazards are possible, especially Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Widespread rainfall in excess of at least
0.5" is likely with localized heavy rain possible.

- Hot temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday when
  afternoon highs away from Lake Superior should be in the 80s
  to low 90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. Heat
  Advisories may be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Through this week, we will be under the influence of an upper level
trough-ridge pattern pushing its way west to east across the CONUS.

TODAY:

A shortwave embedded within a stout ridge pushing over the Great
Lakes has brought areas of rain showers and thunderstorms which
should gradually move out of the area through the afternoon and
evening. No severe storms are expected with this disturbance, and
the area should see anywhere from 0.1-0.8" of rain, highest amounts
towards the Brainerd Lakes and lowest in the MN Arrowhead. A few
lucky folks might even get to measure over an inch on Tuesday
morning. This evening, we might see a stronger thunderstorm or two
redevelop in the Brainerd Lake and Iron Range area along a weak cold
front pushing east. All precipitation activity should fizzle
overnight into Tuesday morning. Expect widespread fog to develop
from Lake Superior and push inland overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect beginning this evening around the lake, and may need to
be expanded based on latest visibility trends. Fog should largely
improve through Tuesday morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into
our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low
should traipse across the Dakotas on Tuesday, getting into north-
central Minnesota in the evening to overnight hours. Severe storm
potential along this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and
shear, and a strong mid level jet. These storms are expected to be
discrete at first in the Dakotas, morphing into a linear structure
and accelerating into the Northland sometime between 1-5am Wednesday
morning. There is the potential that this line could still be severe
as it gets into our area, but the threat is conditional, due to the
timing of the front coming in overnight, which will make for a
battle between that good instability/shear and overnight inhibition.
Main threats would be large hail and damaging winds.

Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across our area,
buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect the
Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to scattered
to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing all
hazards as storms unzip along the cold front midday to early
afternoon and then push east. There is some uncertainty with this
setup, as the front continues to trend faster and lingering
precipitation and convection Wednesday morning could make things
messy. Wednesday should be a decent rainmaker, with a decent chance
for a widespread 0.5"+. There could be some locally higher amounts
of 1-2"+.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of any storms will be HOT
as we find ourselves under ample WAA. Expect afternoon highs to be
in the 80s to low 90s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew
points in the 60s and 70s will make for a very sticky heat. Heat
Advisories will likely Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

Some additional wrap around showers and a few non-severe
thunderstorms are possible Thursday, along with relatively cooler
temperatures. We stay in a  zonal flow pattern into the weekend,
stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains
moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at
time, but nothing significant is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Mix of conditions continue this afternoon with areas of showers and
thunderstorms moving across the area. This precipitation should
generally start to move out of the area and dissipate into the
evening. As that happens, expect widespread fog to develop with IFR
to LIFR visibilities and ceilings. Fog should burn off after sunrise
Tuesday morning. Mostly light winds, but some gusty and erratic
conditions are briefly possible with any pop up thunderstorms or
stronger showers.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Northeast winds continue over the next couple of days. Some
afternoon gusts of 10-15 knots, but no additional small craft
advisories are expected at this time in the nearterm. Patchy to
widespread areas of dense fog are likely through the next day or
two. A Marine Dense Fog has been issued for this afternoon and
evening through midday Tuesday. There is a chance that some dense
fog lingers all the way through Wednesday morning and the advisories
would need to be extended. Expect showers and thunderstorms through
this evening, but no severe weather is expected. Scattered severe
storms are possible Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Areas of rain showers and thunderstorms shift east and out of the
area through the evening. There could be a couple isolated
thunderstorms in the Brainerd Lake and Iron Range this evening. By
Tuesday morning, expected rainfall accumulations of 0.1-0.8", with
some locally higher values up to 1" for those areas that see the
most robust thunderstorms, most likely in the Brainerd Lakes area.
More thunderstorms return late Tuesday evening into Wednesday along
a cold front moving from west to east. Scattered to numerous severe
storms may be possible with this, especially on Wednesday. This
should be an even more robust rain producer however, with widespread
rainfall accumulations of 0.5-0.75"+ likely. Scattered showers
Thursday, and then slowly drying out into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
     for MNZ012-019>021-037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
     for WIZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday
     for LSZ121-146>148-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>145.
     Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
     for LSZ142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens
FIRE WEATHER...Levens