253
FXUS63 KDLH 170527
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds and a few sprinkles today. Areas of locally dense fog tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday into Monday night.
  A few strong storms and a stray severe storm may be possible,
  mainly in the Brainerd Lakes area.

- Quiet, dry, and seasonable weather Tuesday-Thursday with highs
  in the 70s to around 80.

- Another chance for rain and storms arrives around Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Plenty of clouds with a few embedded sprinkles is the story of
this Sunday. Drier air is filtering in from the northwest with a
surface high moving in from the west. Therefore, expect
gradually clearing skies this afternoon and mostly clear skies
overnight. We will probably get some fog to develop with good
radiational cooling conditions. Models are pretty solid on
having fog in the usual low-lying inland areas. The probability
for visibilities less than 1 mile are generally 20% or less, so
we will probably see some patchy dense fog, but perhaps not
enough coverage to warrant any Dense Fog Advisories. Expect fog
to lift/mix out just after sunrise Monday morning.

Monday afternoon into Monday night, another cold front is
expected to make its way through from northwest to southeast.
We`ll have sufficient moisture for some thunderstorms with PWATs
in the 1-1.5" range. Good synoptic support for lift with the
front itself and an upper-level trough aloft. Convective
parameters are so-so for any strong/severe storms. The timing of
this has trended earlier such that we may catch the peak diurnal
heating Monday afternoon and end up with ~1000 J/kg or so of
MUCAPE, at least in northeast Minnesota. Not much for low-level
directional shear with southwest flow expected ahead of the
front. Some drier air aloft ahead of the front could produce a
small risk for strong wind gusts. All said, we`ll be looking at
widespread showers and storms likely Monday afternoon and night,
generally weakening a bit as they move into northwest
Wisconsin. A few storms could be on the strong side with some
small hail and gusty winds, and a stray severe storm can`t be
ruled out with low-end strong winds or quarter size hail being
the main threats.

Expect the front to be out of here Tuesday morning, leaving us
with northwest flow and some slightly cooler temperatures (highs
in the 70s). Tuesday night might be on the chilly side with lows
in the 40s likely and perhaps some stray upper 30s not out of
the question for the usual cold spots. High pressure sticks
around into Wednesday, keeping the weather quiet. Southerly
return flow will likely develop Thursday, and we`ll be watching
for another cold front to be making its way here by around
Friday. We could see another round of showers and storms with
this. At this time, convective parameters look rather dull for
anything strong/severe, but that could change.

The pattern is looking very pre-fall next weekend with northwest
flow following the cold front. Some lingering instability
showers can`t be ruled out Saturday, but otherwise the weather
looks pretty quiet. One might be tempted to call this fall-like
weather, but with temperatures still looking to be in the 70s to
around 80 for highs, it should still be feeling more like late-summer
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Patchy fog is expected early this morning as light to calm winds
occur under clear skies. Confidence in IFR to LIFR fog is highest
over northwest WI, including KHYR, with slightly lower confidence
for these conditions at KHIB. Expect patchy fog to dissipate shortly
after sunrise. A cold front will be sweeping through this afternoon
and evening, bringing a line of scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. A few storms may become strong, especially around the
Brainerd Lakes, capable of producing small hail and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Winds blustery at times this afternoon from the northwest, but
still expecting gusts to remain around 15 kt or less. Winds
become light and switch to southwesterly tonight. Winds become a
bit blustery Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Gusts to
around 25 kt are expected from Grand Marais to Grand Portage,
and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. It`s possible that
similar gusts may be found further southwest towards Silver Bay,
but with probabilities less than 20% for 25 kt gusts, I will
hold off on a Small Craft Advisory from Grand Marais to Silver
Bay for this update. Showers and storms will likely pass through
Monday afternoon and night as the cold front passes through.
Severe weather is not expected. Winds will shift to
northwesterly into Tuesday with gusts generally to 15 kt. With
high pressure moving in through Wednesday, winds will become
more light and variable.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Plenty of clouds and even a few sprinkles this afternoon, so RH
isn`t expected to fall much below 50%, even with northwest flow.
On Monday, ahead of a cold front, we may see some drier
conditions with RH in the ~30-45% range for some places, mainly
in northwest Wisconsin where rain isn`t expected until after
sunset. Winds will be southwesterly with gusts up to 15-20 mph.
Expect showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night as
the cold front passes through. Rainfall amounts will likely be
variable and some places may not see much, but several places
could pick up around 0.1-0.3" with some locally higher amounts.
Dry conditions with northwest flow Tuesday and Wednesday. RH in
the 30-45% range is likely with wind gusts around 10-20 mph.
Similarly dry and breezy Thursday, but with winds becoming
southwesterly. Another cold front is possible Friday with
showers and thunderstorms possible.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS