934
FXUS63 KDLH 120756
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
256 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers across northern MN this morning. More
  widespread rain chances will enter from the west this
  afternoon and exit Tuesday morning. A few storms will be
  possible from the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI.

- Quiet and cool Tuesday and Wednesday

- Rain chances return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

A cold front has sagged south and stalled out over central WI. Radar
is showing some weak echoes moving across northern MN with a few
surface observations indicating pockets of light rainfall are making
it to the surface. This activity is expected to push northeast
through the morning hours with a little lull in activity
through midday. Heading into the latter half of the day we will
see a strong shortwave advance out of the Northern Plains
boosting synoptic forcing and bringing another round of more
widespread rainfall. Farther south, closer to the surface low
moving across southern MN, we will see some increased MUCAPE
which will lead to a brief window for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop from the Brainerd Lakes region into NW
WI. Steep mid level lapse rates from the influx of cool air
aloft paired with ample amounts of bulk shear could lead to
small hail in some of the more robust cells. Activity will taper
off overnight with rain totals ranging from 0.10-0.35"

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Rain exits to the east through Tuesday morning with high
pressure setting up residence over the region. Temperatures will
be much more seasonable with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Overnight lows will fall back into the 30s. No precipitation
expected through this period.

Thursday and Friday:

The 00Z suite of guidance is starting to come into better agreement
with the overall pattern for late into the work week. Two lows will
be the primary players with the first low ejecting out of the
Central Rockies starting Thursday morning. Another low is projected
to be dropping south out of Saskatchewan. There is initially a
dry sector in between these features that will be over the
Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest that will need to be
overrun in order for rain to transpire. But with the pincer
like movement of these features into the Northland rain chances
will likely increase. Placement and timing of these lows are
still a bit contested among ensemble guidance which will greatly
influence on whether or not the southern low can tap into some
Gulf moisture as it moves across the Midwest.

Weekend:

The aforementioned lows will merge over the Great Lakes leading to a
strong pressure gradient setting up over the Northland. Gusty north
winds with ample cold air pouring in from the north will lead to a
very chilly Saturday morning with lows in the 20s. Dry air will also
dominant most the region leading to mostly sunny skies and
highs continuing to be in the 50s and 60s. The dry and windy
conditions may prompt fire weather concerns for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Radar this evening shows some light echoes across northern MN with a
few reports of spotty showers. Ceilings are largely IFR with some
pockets of IFR. These lower ceilings will continue to spread south
through the forecast period. Surface observations at the head of
Lake Superior are clocking in some gusty winds out of the east that
may stream into DLH later this morning with LIFR ceilings. Have
opted to remove the mention of fog given the high wind speeds. In
the latter half of the day another surge of moisture will cruise
across the region leading to more widespread rainfall. A few storms
will be possible across BRD/HYR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Strong northeast winds are streaming across the Lake once again with
gusts near 30 knots this morning. Winds will further strengthen
through the morning hours with gales expected across most the near
shore waters. See the latest MWW for the latest details on timing
and wave heights. Gales are expected to taper off tonight, but
hazardous boating conditions for small vessels will persist through
Tuesday afternoon as wave heights will take some additional
time to decrease.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

No immediate fire weather concerns through most of the work
week. Rain chances for today and Min RHs are not expected to
start drying out again until Friday. The next elevated fire
weather conditions will likely be Friday and Saturday as winds
increase and Min RHs drop into the 30s and possibly 20s for
Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ140>147-150.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt