930
FXUS63 KDLH 162348
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
648 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances this afternoon and tonight. Rain amounts should
  be light, less than a tenth of an inch for most areas.

- Another round of showers will spread across the region early
  Friday and linger into Saturday morning. The heaviest rainfall
  (50-60% of 1") will be from Burnett to Price with a sharp
  gradient in rainfall totals as you head north.

- Near-normal high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s for the
  later half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Current Conditions/Tonight:

Surface high pressure is exiting the region this afternoon with
winds gradually turning to out of the south. Zonal flow aloft with a
weak surface low over western ND will see increasing clouds through
the afternoon and evening hours. Broad 700mb warm air advection
moves in from the west this afternoon with a subtle shortwave aloft
to introduce some light rain across the region. These features can
currently be seen over central ND with weak radar echoes present
across the area. The lack of a good moisture source and overall weak
forcing will keep rain amounts on the low side, generally less
than 0.10" Minimal instability and abysmal lapse rates will
likely negate any thunderstorm chances. The increased cloud
cover tonight with the additional warm air advection will keep
low temps above 40F and eliminate any frost chances.
Additionally, latest guidance suggests that some cloud cover
could briefly disperse after the rain exits in the early morning
hours leading to a small window for areas of fog developing.

Thursday/Friday:

Another brief quiet span on Thursday as high pressure traverses
across the area. Expect similar temperatures with highs in northern
MN in the upper 60s and some low to mid 70s from the Brainerd Lakes
into NW WI.

Friday morning surface high pressure retreats to Ontario as a
surface low moves across the Northern Plains. The 12Z deterministic
guidance is highlighting a tight baroclinic zone setting up as the
warm front moves across southern MN into central WI. This
corridor will feature a strong 850mb FGEN band and will promote
heavy rainfall. Overall track of the system still has some
inconsistency run to run but the axis of heaviest rain continues
to remain south of our CWA. Our southern tier of counties
should still see some decent rain totals being on the northern
end of the precipitation shield but we will likely see a sharp
gradient in rain totals as the influence of the departing high
pressure will be interjecting dry air in the low levels. We
trimmed back the northern precipitation totals and have nudged
the overall solution closer to the LREF which has a 50-60%
chance of 1" or more across Burnett into Price.

Weekend:

Friday`s system will be exiting to the east Saturday morning with
some lingering rain across NW WI. This activity will clear up by mid
day with high pressure moving into Manitoba and northeasterly winds
streaming back into the Northland. Quiet weather for the remainder
of the weekend as the high moves into Ontario. Highs will in the mid
60s with overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

An area of scattered showers will move across the area this
evening and overnight tonight. Ceilings are expected to remain
VFR for most locations, but a brief drop to MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible. Depending on which areas get rain and
whether or not we can get some rapid cloud clearing, there is
potential for some areas of fog to develop early Thursday
morning, with MVFR or even IFR visibilities possible. Fog will
not linger long with the forecast quickly returning to VFR
conditions by mid morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Northeast to east winds of 5 to 10 knots across western Lake
Superior. These winds will weaken and turn to out of the west and
southwest tomorrow. Hazards winds to small vessels return Friday out
of the east with rain spreading over the Lake as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

No fire weather concerns. Min RHs through the forecast period remain
above 35% with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Scattered light rain
across the region this afternoon and evening. Totals will be less
than 0.10". More rain chances will arrive early Friday morning and
linger into Saturday morning. The heaviest rain still looks to
remain to our south but we do have a 50-60% chance of seeing 1" of
rain from Burnett into Price. Totals taper off as you head north and
there will likely be a sharp gradient as dry air from Canada
undercuts some of the rain totals.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt