483
FXUS63 KDLH 100755
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
255 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return Sunday and Sunday night.

- Gusty northwest winds will occur today gusting 20-30 mph.
  Another round of gusty winds, but from the southeast, will
  occur Sunday daytime before shifting northwesterly into
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Winds shift to northwesterly through this morning as a cold
front passes overhead in the next few hours. Expect these cooler
winds to create some gusty winds to 25 mph today, especially
through mid-afternoon today. These gradient winds may gust to 35
mph over Cook County into mid-afternoon though today. As the
quickly-passing cold air advection passes through the Arrowhead,
a few rain showers are possible into Cook County this morning.
Lake-enhanced rain showers are also possible into the WI/UP
stateline lake effect belt of Ashland and Iron Counties
lingering into the early evening hours today.

High pressure quickly settles over the region this evening and
creates calm winds and near-freezing to upper-30s overnight low
temperatures tonight. A low-level jet builds over the Northern
US Great Plains Saturday and results in increasing southeasterly
winds Saturday afternoon over north-central Minnesota. Gusts to
25 mph are possible tomorrow for the Brainerd Lakes region.
With a deepening surface to low-level stacked low pressure
system with a supporting mid-level open wave over the Northern
US Rockies, that low-level jet shifts eastward into the
Northland Saturday night to keep the region mixed out and seeing
elevated winds into Sunday morning. This may also create a
20-40% chance of light rain showers for the Brainerd Lakes to
Koochiching County region early Sunday morning.

Sunday morning another period of more widespread gusty winds
will setup. Expect southeasterly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph
across the region, pending how deep the mixed layer can reach.
Sunday will also feature warm temperatures approaching 70 F in
parts of east-central MN and across northwest Wisconsin.

As the surface to mid-level stacked low pressure strengthens
into Sunday night, more widespread light to locally moderate
rain shower chances build across the region. As these cold front
associated rain showers exit the region Monday morning, wrap-
around cold air advection is very likely to result in continued
gusty winds into Monday. These would now be from the west to
northwest though with a 30-40% chance of gusts around 40 mph
late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Broad ridging sets up over the Central US early to mid next week
and keeps mean westerly and mainly dry conditions over the
region. An out-there weak shortwave could create a few rain
showers early next week, but widespread accumulations are very
unlikely (80% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Southwest winds tonight will shift westerly 08-11Z and then
further shift to northwesterly by sunrise today as an area of
cold air advects into the region. Along with that wind shift
expect a 6 hour period of gusty 20-30 knot winds this morning to
early afternoon. Cook County in the Arrowhead may see a few
gusts to 35 knots today, along with some morning and afternoon
widely scattered rain showers. The northwest Wisconsin lake
effect belt terminals near the WI/UP stateline also has this
daytime slight chance of rain showers today. High pressure
moving in this afternoon and evening quickly decreases wind
speeds by late afternoon today for light and variable Friday
night.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Northwest winds today will gust 20 to 25 knots today,
especially in the morning and early afternoon hours. Expect
potential though for gusts to 30 knots north of Taconite Harbor
along the North Shore into mid-afternoon. A wind shift will
occur early Saturday to easterly, strongest at the head of the
lake. Low pressure builds into the Northern Great Plains later
Saturday to create increasing rain chances Sunday evening.
Sunday will also feature even stronger easterly winds ahead of
the rainfall, gusts 25 to 30 knots. Widespread light to moderate
rain showers are likely Sunday night into Monday morning as
winds again shift to westerly.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140-145>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ141>144.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy