


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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923 FXUS63 KDLH 151144 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet with sunshine north and clouds south today. - Strong to severe thunderstorm chances are increasing for Monday afternoon and evening. - After Monday, occasional rain chances, especially later this week. - Seasonably warm temperatures through the week. Some warm to hot temperatures in the 80s possible next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Some mixed weather out there this morning with partially to mostly clear skies for much of northeast Minnesota and clouds into northwest Wisconsin as plenty of warm and moist air advection is causing clouds to spread north and west. Where it`s clear, some patchy fog and cool temperatures. A few upper 30s are being observed in the Arrowhead, but dewpoints are high enough such that frost shouldn`t be a concern this morning. For today, PoPs have been trimmed substantially to basically none. The cloud cover should do a good job at capping the environment for convection. With that said, we will have a shortwave passing through later this afternoon and evening, so PoPs start to increase this evening as some scattered showers could start to sprout up. A low-level jet will also increase with plenty of southwesterly warm air advection just aloft. Winds at the surface remain light though. With an inversion becoming more solidified, low clouds and some fog will be possible. Monday is looking to be the most interesting day of the forecast period. We`ll have an upper level trough and deepening low pressure passing through with a cold front. The severe threat is looking a bit more favorable with this update as models start to come together with timing of synoptic features and convective ingredients. So starting with Monday morning, we could get some initial showers and non-severe elevated storms that would most likely affect northwest Wisconsin associated with the warm/moist air advection and a weak passing trough. This should do a good job of keeping the lower atmosphere capped through the morning if this plays out as it currently looks (though it could certainly change). We should have very efficient warm air advection going on through the day though, and mid-level lapse rates increasing to 7-8 C/km will create an environment favorable for some very unstable air. The best severe threat will be across southern Minnesota, where CAPE over 3k J/kg will promote a very large hail threat. Favorable veering in the low levels means that tornadoes will be possible as well. In our region, there is still some uncertainty for how far north the very unstable air will make it, though confidence is increasing that our southern counties (including the Brainerd Lakes to Hinckley to Spooner areas, approximately) will be on the northern periphery of the 2-3k J/kg MUCAPE. It`ll be here where the threat for large hail (~30% chance of hail that could be 2"+ in diameter) and a ~5% chance for tornadoes will be possible (per SPC, with an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms). As you head further north, we will have a lake breeze to contend with that will cut off some surface instability, and also the low passing through our region and gradually cutting off the deep warm air advection. That just means a decreasing threat for severe storms from south to north, and since we`re in this "Goldilocks" zone right now where there`s still some uncertainty on how far north the best convective ingredients will make it, expect there to be some fine tuning of the forecast in the next 12-24 hours. With all that said, it`s looking like Monday afternoon into Monday evening should be pretty active with some initially discrete supercells (hail and tornado threats) developing, possibly becoming more linear into the evening (increasing wind threat). Stay tuned for more updates. After the front passes Monday evening, we will welcome northwest flow and some quieter weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. We`ll probably see some sunshine and diurnal cumulus clouds. Maybe some stray showers/storms, but only with ~30% chances. We might get a passing shortwave around Thursday, bringing an increased chance for rain (~30-40%). Broader ridging is looking favorable over the weekend, so we may start to see some warm to hot temperatures with highs rising into the 80s. Nighttime lows could be warm as well (60s for many places starting around Friday night). There could be some occasional rain chances as well. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Fog has largely diminished, but it wouldn`t be surprising if visibilities briefly dropped to MVFR/IFR in the next hour or two at BRD/HIB, though it`s unlikely. Otherwise, low clouds have moved into DLH/BRD/HYR, and they are expected to remain there for most of the day as most models suggest. It is possible that clouds may lift and scatter to VFR at DLH/BRD later this afternoon for several hours. Winds will be generally light today and switching over to the southeast. Tonight, a low level jet develops, and this will cause an inversion and low clouds to remain in place with falling ceilings to MVFR/IFR. Some fog is also possible, and while it likely won`t be dense most of the time, some 1SM or slightly lower visibilities can`t be completely ruled out, with the best chances at HIB/DLH. A few showers could develop tonight as well, though confidence is low on where exactly they could set up. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Northeast winds continue today with some gusts up to 15 kt around the head of the lake. Winds become a bit more light and variable tonight, then more of a lake breeze developing on Monday with light onshore winds along the shores (so southeast winds on the North Shore, northeast at the head of the lake, and east to northeast South Shore). Rain chances have decreased substantially today, but they gradually start to increase with some scattered showers possible later this evening and tonight. A cold front is expected to pass through Monday afternoon and evening, and with this, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. The main threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and cloud- to- water lightning. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...JDS MARINE...JDS