080
FXUS63 KDLH 291954
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
254 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers exit this afternoon with skies varying between
  overcast and mostly sunny for the remainder of today.

- An active pattern arrives Sunday night and continues into
  Monday with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  likely. A few storms on Sunday night into Monday morning may
  become strong to severe from the Brainerd Lakes to I-35
  corridor.

- Depending on the time of arrival of an occluded front on
  Monday, additional severe thunderstorms may occur over
  northwest Wisconsin on Monday afternoon. Uncertainty on this
  second round of severe storms is high at this time.

- A more benign pattern settles over the area around mid-week
  before additional chances for rain arrive later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A weak amplitude shortwave has been propagating through today, with
scattered showers associated with isentropic ascent moving
downstream of the CWA this afternoon. In the wake of this precip,
skies have been varying between overcast in the southern half of the
CWA to mostly sunny near the International Border. Conditions stay
on the quieter side this afternoon into tonight as a 500mb ridge
briefly slides over the area. This ridge will be fairly messy though
with multiple vorticity maxima propagating through tonight into
early tomorrow morning, which could develop an isolated shower.
Despite these shots of vorticity coming through, keeping the
potential low at a 20-25% chance due to a significant cap expected
to develop around 800mb as southerly winds bring WAA to the area.

This WAA advection will usher in warmer temperatures on Sunday for
the southern edge of the CWA, with highs increasing to the low 80s
and dewpoint temps becoming sticky in the mid to upper 60 degree
range. The aforementioned capping inversion will likely inhibit
convective initiation through the daytime hours on Sunday with skies
varying between partly to mostly cloudy.

A warm front associated with vertically-stacked low pressure over
the Canadian Prairies is anticipated to lift north on Sunday night,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms that will continue
until Monday morning. A sizable amount of instability will be
associated with the warm front, with MUCAPE from CAMs indicating
potential values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range on Sunday night
around the Brained Lakes towards the I-35 corridor. This will
also be accompanied by favorable 0-6km bulk shear up to 40
knots. However, it`s worth noting that this is a large
divergence from global models, which put timing of peak
instability and shear later into Monday. This increases
uncertainty with this warm fropa. If timing of peak instability
happens more overnight, large hail to ping pong ball size is the
primary hazard with damaging winds being unlikely due to the
low-level cap. SPC has the southwestern corner of the CWA in a
Marginal Risk on Sunday night.

On Monday, the severe thunderstorm potential shifts into northwest
Wisconsin as the occluded front associated with the sfc low moves
through. Again, impacts on Monday will largely be dependent on
timing of this occluded fropa. If the earlier timing becomes
favored, most of the convection will likely be exiting by early
Monday afternoon and severe storms will be limited to elevated
hailers.

If the later timing favored in global models, such as the GFS,
occurs then this front will be sweeping through northwest Wisconsin
during peak diurnal heating and allow for 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
to develop. With 0-6km bulk shear remaining around 40-45 knots,
this could lead to supercell development. If supercells
develop, all hazards are possible including damaging winds to 70
mph, large hail up to golf ball size, and locally heavy rain
with PWAT to 1.6". A tornado or two also can`t be ruled out as
hodographs indicate a moderately favorable 60-100 m2/s2 of SRH
available to right-moving supercells. This is highly uncertain
at this time though given the discrepancies in timing between
the various models.

Following the occluded frontal passage on Monday, a more benign
pattern settles over the region for mid-week with slightly cooler
high temps. Low pressure, following a typical Colorado Low type
track, will bring a chance for additional showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday. Additional precipitation will be possible later in the
week as the 500mb pattern remains active.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Rain showers currently located across northwest Wisconsin continue
to exit to the east. In the wake of this precip, MVFR to IFR cigs
have been occurring. Lingering IFR conditions early this afternoon
are likely to improve to MVFR, with broken MVFR cigs continuing
through the afternoon. Tonight, patchy fog is expected to develop
with cigs favored to lower to IFR and even LIFR. Confidence in fog
is highest for locations that saw rainfall earlier today. Expect
this fog to begin improving after sunrise tomorrow as easterly winds
begin to increase.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The main concern is strengthening northeast winds to upwards of 25-
30 kt on Sunday into Monday morning as low pressure moves into the
area. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect, starting on Sunday
morning and tapering off on Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into Monday as an
occluded front moves east across the area. Some of these storms
could be strong with small hail and gusty winds. Outside of
thunderstorm winds, winds on Monday remain around 10 kt or less
before turning southwest on Tuesday with gusts of 15-25 kt
developing.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

In terms of min RH, there are minimal fire weather concerns through
the forecast period as min RH remains above 40%. Winds will be a
slightly different story, especially on Sunday as low pressure and
associated surface fronts move through the area. This low pressure
is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area,
with a few strong to severe storms possible on Sunday night into
Monday capable of producing gusty and erratic winds, large hail, and
frequent lightning. Easterly winds on Sunday will be breezy late
Sunday into Sunday night, gusting 15-25 mph. Expect these winds to
shift to the west on Monday morning into the early afternoon as an
occluded front sweeps through.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-
     148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for
     LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for
     LSZ143>145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for
     LSZ146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh
FIRE WEATHER...Unruh