924
FXUS63 KDLH 251124
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather with temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s are
  likely this weekend and early next week. A Heat Advisory is in
  effect for Saturday and an Extreme Heat Watch was issued for
  most of the Northland Sunday.

- Another round of showers and storms are forecast Sunday
  afternoon and night. A few strong to severe storms are
  possible.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms over the next week
  are forecast. Widespread measurable rainfall is not expected,
  although areas that see thunderstorms may pick up half an inch
  to 2 inches of rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 107AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

High pressure was analyzed over the Northland early this morning
with a cold front across northwestern Ontario into southern
Manitoba extending from an area of low pressure over southern
Hudson Bay. Showers and thunderstorms were observed on radar
across northern Minnesota with another area just north of the
International Border. This activity will continue to move to the
east-southeast this morning with dry conditions by mid-morning.
Very warm and humid conditions will then prevail for the
remainder of the day. With WBGTs over 79F across much of Sawyer
and Ashland counties this afternoon along with a moderate
HeatRisk, have added those two counties to the Heat Advisory.
There is a low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening, but a stout cap will be in place which
may prevent any storms from developing. However, if any updrafts
can break the cap and initiate sustained convection, strong to
severe storms will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Heat and humidity return starting Saturday and will persist
through early next week. We issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday
over most of the Northland and an Extreme Heat Watch for Sunday.
Additional heat headlines may be needed Monday and Tuesday.

In addition to the heat Saturday, there is a risk of a storm or
two breaking through the cap. In the event storms develop, they
will be capable of large hail and damaging wind. As of this
afternoon, the risk of storms is less than 10% for any given
location.

Sunday will bring another potential for showers and storms,
some of which may be severe. An elevated mixed layer is forecast
to advect eastward over the region which will limit storm
potential initially. Strong heating beneath the cap will result
in an area of 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE. There is a small chance
a few storms may break through the cap in the afternoon. The
more likely evolution will be storms developing near a cold
front in southern Manitoba and northeast North Dakota and moving
into north-central and central Minnesota during the evening. If
storms form in the afternoon, very large hail and damaging
winds are possible. With the later round of storms, damaging
winds will be the main threat.

Temperatures cool a bit behind the front Monday. Heat headlines
may be needed once again. For the remainder of next week,
temperatures will be in the 80s and low 90s until Friday.
Additional heat headlines may be needed. There will also be
periodic chances of rain and storms, mainly focused Wednesday
night and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

MVFR ceilings linger from storms last night, but are expected to
dissipate in the late morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions and
mostly clear skies are expected. Northwest winds will shift to
the south again this evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Southwesterly winds will diminish through the day Saturday
before becoming light and variable Saturday night. Winds will be
strongest this morning at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots.
Showers and storms may linger this morning as well, but no
strong or severe storms are expected. Winds will remain variable
for Sunday and eventually become easterly by the evening with
speeds at 5 to 10 knots through the day and night. Spotty
showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon
with better chances arriving Sunday night. A few of the storms
may be severe with wind gusts over 40 knots and large hail
possible.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Following some much needed rain early this morning across parts
of the Northland, dry and very warm conditions will prevail for
Saturday. Highs will reach into the 80s to middle 90s with
afternoon RH values in the 35 to 45 percent range outside of
much of Ashland, Bayfield, Iron and Price counties where clouds
are expected to linger into the afternoon and keep values higher.
Winds wil be northwesterly to westerly at 5 to 10 mph with
gusts to 15 mph possible along the higher terrain in Cook
County. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of the the
Northland Saturday. Sunday will be even warmer with highs in the
90s and afternoon RH values in the 35 to 55% range. There will
be chances for spotty showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon with better chances for the evening and overnight
hours. Some storms may be strong to severe. Winds will
generally be westerly at 5 to 15 mph. An Extreme Heat Watch is
in effect for much of the area for Sunday. Temperatures remain
quite warm into the new week with highs in the 80s and 90s with
continued chances for showers and storms, mainly across the
Arrowhead.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ010-018-019-025-026-033>038.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for MNZ018-025-026-033>038.
WI...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for WIZ001>003-006>008.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for WIZ001>003-006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH