951
FXUS63 KDLH 010726
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog through early this morning, mainly in northwest
  Wisconsin.

- Warm, dry, and breezy today. Elevated fire weather conditions
  are possible in northwest WI.

- Light, scattered showers and a couple embedded storms
  possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, mainly in east-
  central MN into northwest WI.

- Warm with on-and-off rain/storm chances Thursday into next
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Current Conditions - Today:

Clear to mostly clear skies have set up over the Northland
during the current overnight hours as we sit in an area of
post-cold front surface high pressure while a vertically stacked
low-pressure churns into far northwestern Ontario. Winds have
been light to calm under these clear skies, especially in
northwest Wisconsin where areas of dense fog have developed.
This fog has not become widespread, but if it trends that way a
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Other portions of the
Northland could see patchy fog through early this morning,
particularly where winds go calm. Fog should dissipate within
1-3 hours after sunrise this morning.

For the rest of today, expect mostly sunny conditions in the
morning with high cloud cover increasing from SW to NE across
the area this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be warm
once again with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest in
east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin. Winds will also
be breezy out of the west, especially this afternoon and early
evening. The dry and breezy conditions this afternoon into
early evening could produce some elevated fire weather
conditions, mainly in east-central Minnesota to northwest
Wisconsin where minimum relative humidities will be lowest
(i.e. 30-35%). West winds and downslope flow along the north-
shore could also lead to some compressional warming and a few
spots with lower relative humidity this afternoon, as well.

Tonight - Wednesday:

A quasi-stationary front settles into the Minnesota/Iowa border
into southwest Wisconsin for tonight into Wednesday morning in
association with mid- and upper-level shortwave energy moving
through zonal flow aloft. This will bring some scattered showers
and perhaps a few embedded, general thunderstorms to portions of
east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. However, better
coverage of storms is expected to remain to our south.
Precipitation amounts look limited as this precipitation will be
fighting against a large amount of dry air in the lower and
middle portions of the atmosphere. Generally expect a few
hundredths of an inch to 0.1-0.15" at best, with the highest
amounts expected in Price County.

Expect dry conditions elsewhere in the Northland for Wednesday
with seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s
alongside lighter winds and decreasing cloud cover late as high
pressure briefly returns.

Thursday and Beyond:

Previous forecast remains valid with no major changes. See the
last paragraph of the "DISCUSSION" section below for more
details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Clouds are clearing out from west to east this afternoon as a
cold/occluded front passes through. While the air is moist and
should become unstable this afternoon ahead of the front, the
clouds ongoing right now are likely to inhibit convective
initiation in our area. Models have really continued to trend
dry this afternoon with thunderstorms possible into the UP and
northeast Wisconsin. We will have to keep a keen eye on things
this afternoon in case there does happen to be a bit more
clearing than expected and storms can initiate further west, but
right now confidence is high that northwest Wisconsin will
remain dry this afternoon.

Into tonight, nearly vertically stacked low pressure will
slowly drift east up in Canada and we will be within the warm
sector to the south with quiet (but warm) weather expected
tonight into Tuesday. Light winds tonight may result in some
fog tonight, but widespread dense fog is not likely. Tuesday
afternoon, dry and breezy conditions could result in some
elevated fire weather, mainly for northwest Wisconsin.

A quasi-stationary front may develop and produce an area of
showers/storms Tuesday night. Models differ on how far north the
showers/storms may make it, but east-central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin have the best chances for rain Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Not a lot of instability is expected, so
severe storms are not expected either.

Wednesday is looking like an "in-between" kind of day with low
pressure well to our northeast and ridging off to our west.
Winds will likely be light from approximately the northwest,
temperatures will be warm with highs around 80, and clouds may
decrease through the day with potentially some drier air moving
in.

On Thursday, we may end up in a "dirty ridge" pattern with warm
air and moisture advection from the south and potential for a
warm front to bring some rain/storm chances in. This sort of
unorganized, slightly chaotic pattern underneath a broad ridge
looks to continue into the weekend, so look for more occasional
shower/storm chances and warm weather. While there are no clear
signals for severe weather at this time, it`s possible that
ingredients could aligns for a few severe storms on some of the
days from Thursday into next weekend. Signals for widespread,
drought-improving rainfall don`t appear imminent, but certainly
some places could pick up some decent rain if thunderstorms
develop.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The cold front has moved east of northeast Minnesota and
Northwest Wisconsin, with predominately clear skies and VFR
conditions in its wake. There remains some signal for patchy
MVFR to LIFR fog and low ceilings at HYR/parts of northwest
Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent on a more patchy basis at HIB
and any other places where winds go calm. Otherwise, winds
generally stay 3-6 kt for the other terminals through early
morning. Expect a return to VFR conditions area-wide towards
13-14Z. INL should see some scattered 3000-3500 ft cloud bases
this afternoon, otherwise expect mainly clear skies to start the
morning before high clouds increase from southwest to northeast
this afternoon and evening. Stronger westerly daytime gusts of
15-23 kt develop today, strongest in northeast Minnesota.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Dense fog continues in portions of the Apostle Islands through
around sunrise and along the North Shore northeast of Silver Bay
through mid-morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. Expect
fog to clear from southwest to northeast from early to mid-
morning as winds turn southwesterly over western Lake Superior.

Winds will increase out of the southwest today, with gusts up to
20-25 kt in much of the SW arm, Apostle Islands, and North Shore
from around midday through early evening before winds weaken and
turn light from the northwest tonight. Winds will be strongest
near Grand Marias to Grand Portage where 2-4 ft waves are
forecast to develop. Small Craft Advisories have been issued.

Winds remain light at around 10 kt or less for Wednesday and
Wednesday night before turning northeast Thursday through
Saturday. Diurnal wind components to the onshore flow could lead
to conditions hazardous to small craft for portions of western
Lake Superior nearshore waters on Thursday and Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Patchy fog expected this morning, with areas of dense fog in
northwest Wisconsin burning off within 1-3 hours after sunrise.
Expect dry conditions through this evening. The Brainerd Lakes
east into east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin are
expected to see the lowest min RH this afternoon at 30-35%.
There is also a 50-60% chance for min RH to dip to 25-30% in the
Pine Barrens and parts of the South Shore. Downsloping of
westerly winds along the North Shore could lead to localized
pockets of 30-35% min RH, as well. When combined with westerly
winds gusting to around 18-22 mph and high temperatures in the
80s, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in east-
central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin. High-level cloud cover
will be on the increase from SW to NE this afternoon and
evening.

Winds weaken and become light to calm this evening and tonight,
with RH recovery above 90% for most locations. Lighter winds
and a bit more humidity is expected Wednesday, so fire weather
concerns are minimal. Some light, scattered rain and perhaps a
couple embedded thunderstorms are in store for east-central
Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin tonight. Amounts will likely be
0.05-0.15" or less as rain will be fighting dry air in the low
to middle portions of the atmosphere. Price County would have
the best chance to see the higher end of the rain range.

On-and-off rain chances for showers and storms return for
Thursday into the weekend, so min RH should largely remain above
50% during that timeframe. Widespread wetting rains are not
expected, but locations that see storms move overhead will see
some rainfall.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ141>147-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ147-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rothstein
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein