844
FXUS63 KDLH 251030
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
430 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A large storm system will bring rain then snow to the
  Northland starting this morning through Wednesday. Strong
  winds and possibly blowing snow will accompany it.

- Enhanced snowfall is expected from a potent FGEN band over
  the Arrowhead, a gravity wave over far northwestern Wisconsin,
  and lake effect snow along the South Shore.

- Cold air arrives Wednesday and lasting through the holiday
  weekend, with highs and lows 10-15 degrees below normal by
  early next week.

- Light lake effect snow will linger across the South Shore
  through Thanksgiving Day, and another system over the weekend
  may bring another round of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A cold front stretches across the UP of Michigan, through
central Wisconsin and southern Minnesota this morning, with a
broad area of low pressure noted over central South Dakota and
southwestern North Dakota. At upper levels, a weak shortwave is
moving through Illinois toward the southern Great Lakes, and is
aiding in initial moisture advection northward tonight with
light rain noted as far north as Phillips. A second, stronger
shortwave is crossing into the Dakotas, and is providing lift
for light rain and snow moving into far western Minnesota. Over
the Northland, light radar returns are not making it to the
ground yet, given drier air around 850mb, with the closest ob
reporting precip still west of Bemidji.

Through the morning hours, that second shortwave will quickly
cross the northern Plains, strengthening, with its accompanying
surface low crossing southern Minnesota. Expect moisture from
the south to continue northward over northwest Wisconsin, while
profiles over northeast Minnesota moisten, eroding that lower
level dry layer. Only light precipitation is expected through
the morning, with snow most likely north of a line from Walker
to Brimson. This line will slowly sink southward through the
morning, with a rain/snow mix as far southeast as the Twin Ports
and portions of the South Shore by mid day. Winds will be from
the northeast through the morning, with speeds of 10-15mph.

The surface low will deepen this afternoon and take a turn
toward Michigan`s UP, with a north to south oriented LLJ
strengthening over the Northland while a south to north mid
level jet shifts over the region ahead of the shortwave.
Increasing vertical lift and deep layer moisture will result in
widespread snowfall, heavy at times, beginning in the Brainerd
Lakes region this afternoon and spreading across the Northland
this evening. There are a couple different convergent areas that
strength this evening, one across the Arrowhead/North Shore
where there is increased vertical lift with mid level winds
lifting over the elevated warm front. Expect totals to decrease
along the immediate north shore line given the warmer air near
the lake. A second and stronger band of frontogenesis associated
with the TROWAL region will allow for increased snow rates and
locally higher amounts. Model guidance this morning shows a
slightly southward shift in those dynamics this morning, with
the focus now from Carlton County into northwest Wisconsin.

Winds shift around to the north by this evening then northwest
tonight, setting up a gravity wave that will enhance snow
amounts over portions of Douglas and Bayfield counties
overnight. Snow chances end from west to east through the day
Wednesday, with the South Shore lake effect machine remaining
active through Thursday. This will push snow totals for portions
of Ashland and Iron counties to 20-30 inches.

Winds will become rather strong with the increasing pressure
gradient around the surface low. Can not rule out wind gusts of
35-40mph at times, which will allow for blowing snow and reduced
visibilities. Travel impacts are expected tonight and Wednesday.

Cold air arrives behind this system, with near normal
temperatures for Wednesday. Persistent northwest winds and cold
advection continue through Friday as high pressure slides
southward through the Plains. For the end of the week,
highs will be in the 20s with lows in the teens and single
digits.

Another system arrives over the weekend, but guidance is
inconsistent on how far north the moisture shield spreads as
the surface lows takes a more southerly track. We do get another
surge of cold air, with temperatures to 10-15 degrees below
normal for early next week - highs in the teens and lows around
0F.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions prevail across northeastern Minnesota early this
morning with conditions ranging from VFR to LIFR across
northwestern Wisconsin. As a storm system begins to work in this
morning, conditions are expected to deteriorate with ceilings
falling to MVFR to IFR or lower. As rain, snow, and mix activity
spreads in through the day Tuesday, VSBYs are expected to fall
to MVFR or lower with IFR VSBYs prevailing after sunset Tuesday
when the heaviest snow is expected at the terminals. The
exception will be INL which will be on the northern edge of the
system and will see less snow. Snow will be heavy and wet today
into this evening, but colder air moving in will start to
increase the snow ratio late Tuesday evening. Winds will pick up
later this afternoon with gusts to 20 to 25 knots expected into
Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A deepening low pressure system will move across the Upper
Great Lakes today into Wednesday resulting in Gale-force winds
over Lake Superior. Northeast winds increase this morning
leading to building waves through the day. By this evening the
low center will be over north central Wisconsin, and as it
tracks east- northeast towards the Upper Peninsula of Michigan,
winds across western Lake Superior will increase and become more
northerly Tuesday night, out of the northwest by daybreak
Wednesday. Northwest winds of 25-30 knots with gale- force gusts
to 40 knots Wednesday evening. On Wednesday evening, winds will
start weakening as the low exits and an area of high pressure
builds to the west. The probability for gale- force gusts (34+
knots) is 80-100 percent, greatest for the north shore north of
Grand Marais. Storm-force gusts over western Lake Superior are
less likely, with around a 10 percent chance for Storm-force
(48+ knots) gusts along the North Shore.

Beyond the storm, northwest winds linger through the rest of the
week into the weekend at 10-15 knots Thursday, then less than 10
knots Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon CST
     Wednesday for MNZ010.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Wednesday
     night for MNZ011-012-019>021-037.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM this morning to noon CST
     Wednesday for MNZ018-025-026-033>036.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday for MNZ038.
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST
     Wednesday night for WIZ001-002.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Thursday for WIZ003-004.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
     Wednesday for WIZ006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ121-
     143>148-150.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Thursday for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this
     afternoon for LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...HA