406
FXUS63 KDLH 232320
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
620 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night
  through Tuesday.

- Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and
  evening with the passage of a cold front.

- Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Current Conditions/Tonight:

Gorgeous conditions across the Northland this afternoon with mostly
sunny skies and highs in the 70s. Surface high pressure starts to
shift to the east tonight with another dose of cool temperatures
expected. Low temperatures tonight will dip back into the 40s
with our colder spots likely falling into the upper 30s again.

Monday:

Surface high pressure will have been shunted off to the east with
southerly warm air advection moving back into the Northland. High
temperatures will increase a couple degrees from the previous day
with some isolated spots seeing low 80s. Precipitation chances
increase late Monday and into Tuesday as a Low pressure system moves
across Canada. Some of the CAMs are quite bullish with the onset of
precipitation initially in the early evening hours as a weak
shortwave rounds the upper level ridge in place ahead of the
approaching system. For now, we have limited PoPs to 15% as
soundings still look fairly dry during this time period and the
strength of the available forcing does not look overly strong
with height rises still in play aloft. Better forcing for ascent
arrives later into the night as the system moves across the
Northern Plains with a cold front sliding into the Red River
Valley. The warm sector ahead of the cold front in our CWA will
be able to generate some instability with MUCAPE projected to be
around 1000 J/kg. Bulk shear is pretty minimal through Tuesday
morning and mid level lapse rates are not overly favorable so
current thinking is that any storms that do fire off will remain
sub severe producing small hail. The strongest storms look to
remain to the west at this time where SPC has a marginal risk
outlined. However, this could shift east into our region. Right
now the HRRR is the most aggressive of the CAMs with a linear
complex marching across northern MN in the morning hours. Still
have a healthy amount of skepticism in this scenario with mean
wind flow not overly strong and no sustainable boundary present
in the models during that timeframe.

Tuesday:

Lingering showers and storms in the morning are possible, especially
across northern MN. Another round of showers and storms are expected
to develop in the afternoon as the low pressure and associated
frontal boundaries cross the Northland. Instability recovery from
the morning activity will have to be monitored but the current
expectation is for the region to see MUCAPE bounce back to over 1000
J/kg as surface temperates heat up into the upper 70s and 80s. Bulk
shear will also see a slight uptick as mid level flow increases with
a small jet streak rounding the base of the trough. With these
ingredients in play we could see some isolated severe storms capable
of producing 1" hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk
(level 1 out of 5) outlined for most of our region except near
the Brainerd Lakes area. Best timing for severe storms to
initiate still looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours.

Wednesday-Friday:

Low pressure will be sliding into the Great Lakes on Wednesday with
some lingering showers and storms possible through the day. Any
storms that do manage to form would likely not be severe as the mid
level flow will be weaker and not capable of sustaining strong
updrafts. Northerly flow will stream back into the region with highs
back in the 70s through the end of the work week. The upper level
pattern maintains northwest flow with the 12Z suite of
deterministic guidance keeping activity out of the region as surface
high pressure expands across Manitoba and through the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions this evening are expected to deteriorate early
Saturday morning with MVFR to IFR fog expected for HIB and HYR.
Conditions should improve with sunrise. Light winds expected Monday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

No expected marine hazards in the near term forecast. High pressure
over the region will be sliding to the east on tomorrow. Easterly
winds of 5 to 10 knots currently over the Lake will switch to out of
the south tonight. By Monday afternoon these winds will switch to
out of the northeast. Rain and storm chances will return early
Tuesday morning and linger through Wednesday. Some storms may be
strong to severe Tuesday afternoon and evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Surface high pressure over the region today providing mostly
sunny skies and dry conditions with Min RHs falling into the 30s
across the region. About the same for tomorrow as the high
pressure exits to the east. Low fire weather concerns with light
winds today. Tomorrow winds will switch to out of the south but
still remain weak enough that fire weather concerns remain low.
Rain and storm chances return Monday night and linger through
Wednesday. Largely scattered activity through the period with
some severe storms possible, most likely Tuesday afternoon and
evening as a cold front moves across the region.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt