822
FXUS63 KDLH 051723
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain exits the Northland this morning. Expect much
  cooler high temperatures today in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

- Light lake effect snow will be possible this evening into
  tonight in the snowbelts of north-central WI. Accumulations
  are expected to be minimal and most likely to occur on grassy
  and elevated surfaces.

- A drier pattern settles over the region on Friday into next
  week with little to no chances for rain. Temperatures will be
  trending above-normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The wet pattern that the Northland has been experiencing for the
past few days is expected to come to an end today as low pressure
propagates downstream. Latest sfc analysis places a low pressure
center over central Lake Superior. A trowal associated with this
vertically-stacked low is currently over portions of the CWA,
resulting in a broad area of rain along the North Shore and in
northwest Wisconsin. A 500mb shortwave trough is expected to dive
south-southeast from far northern Ontario into the Upper Great Lakes
region this morning into the afternoon, which will cause this low
pressure to finally propagate downstream. Expect rain to exit the
CWA by this afternoon.

In addition to propagating the low pressure downstream, this
arriving shortwave trough will be bringing a colder airmass into the
region. 850mb temps by this evening over western Lake Superior are
forecast to be around -6 to -7 degC. When combined with steep lapse
rates in excess of 8 degC/km below 800mb, lake sfc temps around 9
degC, and north-northeast winds, lake effect snow is forecast in the
snowbelts of north-central WI this evening into tonight. The RRFS
and REFS indicate the potential for up to 1" of accumulation,
although amounts will likely be minimal due to temps remaining above
freezing through the daytime hours today. Any light snow
accumulation will most likely be on grassy and elevated surfaces,
quickly melting tomorrow as high temps warm into the 40s.

In sharp contrast to the wet weather we`ve been seeing, a much drier
pattern is expected to settle over the CWA starting on Friday and
persist through at least early next week. Global models largely keep
the storm track north of the International Border, although a
shortwave is anticipated to move through the region on Saturday.
Moisture associated with this Clipper-track shortwave is progged to
be fairly minimal, with the main impact being increased cloud cover
on Saturday as a dry front sweeps through. Temperatures on Friday
through the remainder of the forecast period will generally be above-
normal. For context, normal high temps for this time of year are
around the upper 30s to low 40s with overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue throughout the TAF
period. There may be a short window where ceilings become
scattered across our north (mainly for INL and HIB), but is
expected to fill back in overnight. Models show stratus breaking
by mid morning Friday, but will have to see how stubborn this
stratus will be.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

An upper level disturbance, which will be moving the low pressure
that has brought recent widespread rainfall to the east, will also
be bringing increased northerly winds today through tonight. In the
forecast update this morning, Small Craft Advisories have been
expanded to cover all of western Lake Superior, remaining in effect
the longest through tonight from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor and
around the Apostle Islands due to lingering elevated waves. A Gale
Warning remains in effect today between Grand Marais and Grand
Portage, where the pressure gradient will be strongest.

Expect winds and waves to ease by Friday morning as high pressure
builds, resulting in winds becoming light and variable on
Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The wet pattern that has been occurring over the area will be coming
to an end today as low pressure exits to the east this morning.
Lingering rain showers are expected this morning over northwest
Wisconsin, coming to an end by the afternoon for most. Expect strong
northerly winds today, especially this morning, gusting 20-35 mph.
As colder air arrives this evening, light lake effect snow is
expected to develop in the snowbelts of north-central WI and
continue until early Friday morning. Any accumulations will likely
be minimal on grassy and elevated surfaces.

A drier settles over the region starting on Friday in terms of
precipitation, with temperatures trending above-normal. Min RH will
be trending drier than what has been seen the past few days, but
values below 35% are currently not expected.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
     141>145.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ146>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Unruh
FIRE WEATHER...Unruh