429
FXUS63 KDLH 281945
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
245 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging
  winds are the main threats. A few tornadoes are also possible.

- Warm temperatures today will trend a little cooler Thursday
  before a warming trend returns Friday through the weekend.
  Temperatures will climb to 10-20 degrees above normal.

- Thursday and Friday should be dry then precipitation chances
  return Saturday and Saturday night south of US-2. Widespread
  precip chances forecast Monday through next Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clouds and fog abound this morning, and that will continue
through the morning and potentially into the afternoon with warm
air advection ongoing and plenty of moisture already in place. The
main forecast update this morning is a developing and
conditional severe weather threat for this afternoon and
evening. An upper level trough and a cold front will pass
through this afternoon and evening, and as of now, the timing of
that front is such that it will be passing through during peak
diurnal heating today. Strong warm air advection will allow high
temperatures to get potentially pretty warm in northwest
Wisconsin if we can see some clearing this afternoon. Upper 60s
are expected, and a few places could crack 70. If this clearing
takes place, we will have some instability to work for
thunderstorms. This could around or slightly higher than 1000
J/kg. A potent low-level jet will be in place, and with
south to southeast flow at the surface and southwesterlies
aloft, there would be an ideal amount of streamwise vorticity
available for ingestion into updrafts ahead of the cold front.
This therefore introduces a threat for tornadoes. If we get
that degree of surface-based instability, large hail slightly
larger than quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be
possible as well. Most model soundings show an inversion
sticking around through the afternoon within that ideal veering
wind profile just below the low-level jet. Thus, the situation
described above will happen only if all the ingredients can come
into place, most notably getting rid of most or all of the
stratus in northwest Wisconsin to allow for good diurnal
heating.

As far as storm organization goes, the threat for any supercells
will probably be pretty limited to northwest Wisconsin where
that potential for clearing out stratus is greatest. Elsewhere,
showers and storms will develop in the vicinity of the cold
front and likely organize to a quasi-linear structure. If we end
up with a case where stratus sticks around into the afternoon,
we will simply lose the surface-based potential of these storms
and get rid of the tornado and wind threat for the most part,
and the hail threat will be reduced but non-zero.

The timing of severe weather will be somewhat limited because
the sun goes down early this time of year. Storms may develop
mid-afternoon, giving a ~3-4 hour window at most for the most
intense storms. After that, their intensity should decrease as
they move east, and they should clear out of the area before
midnight.

The rest of the forecast is largely unchanged. Please see the
previous discussion with more details on that.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

For the rest of the day, the widespread rainfall from early
this morning has largely moved through the area. However,
scattered showers are still expected to linger into this
afternoon for far northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin,
which will squeeze out a few more hundredths of an inch of
precipitation. As the rain showers depart, patchy fog is
expected to linger in their wake. This will be particularly
noticeable around the Brainerd Lakes area into the evening.
Cloud cover will remain in place tonight with lows dropping
into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the Northland.

Our active weather pattern continues right into Wednesday as another
low pressure system and mid-level wave approach from the Dakotas.
This will spread another round of widespread showers across the
region. Instability that will accompany these showers tomorrow will
lead to embedded thunderstorms during the Wednesday afternoon and
evening hours. Though the overall chances for severe weather remain
low, some communities could see small, pea-sized hail for a brief
period sometime in the late afternoon. South to southwest winds
will also be quite breezy ahead of this system, bringing warm
air into the region from the south and temperatures will be
into the upper 50s and mid 60s for most locations.

The rain comes to an end late Wednesday night as a cold front sweeps
through, leading to a quiet end to the work week. High pressure
will build in for Thursday and Friday, bringing a return to
plentiful sunshine across the region. With northwest winds
expected behind the departing system, temperatures will be a
bit cooler on Thursday, with highs topping out in the upper 40s
to mid 50s. Pleasant conditions will hold through Friday, with
high temperatures moderating back into the mid 50s to lower 60s
under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Heading into the weekend, the pattern becomes active once
again. Global models point to a deepening upper-level trough
moving into the central United States, bringing broad chances
for precipitation to the Northland from Saturday through Monday.
While the exact timing and placement of these weekend showers
remain a bit uncertain, multiple rounds of rain are possible.
Despite the clouds and rain, temperatures will remain
warmer than normal through the weekend. Highs will consistently
reach the mid 50s to lower 60s, while overnight lows will
comfortably stay above freezing, generally resting in the upper
30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A few holes have appeared in the low stratus over the Northland
early this afternoon. Expect pockets of clearing to persist
through this afternoon. Light rain is forecast at INL through
early evening. BRD, DLH, and HYR have a chance of thunderstorms.
HIB has a smaller chance of thunderstorms and should see light
rain at a minimum. A cold front sweeps into the area this
evening and will veer winds northwesterly. Skies may clear
behind the front for a time before cold air advection supports
the development of low stratus Thursday morning. LLWS is
forecast at BRD and HYR where northwest winds aloft will be
strongest.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

East and northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will move
over the waters late this afternoon and tonight ahead of and
behind a cold front. Winds will weaken and veer westerly and
southwesterly immediately behind the front and strengthen to
10-20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots. Small Craft
Advisories were issued from early Thursday morning until 7 PM
Thursday evening. Winds decrease and become northwesterly
Thursday night. Winds and waves are unlikely to pose a hazard to
boaters again until early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rain and thunderstorms will taper off tonight. Rain totals will
range from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch over north-
central Minnesota to 3/4 to 1 inch or more over northwest
Wisconsin. Thursday will bring west and northwest winds at 5 to
15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph in the morning. Wind speeds
and gusts are expected to decrease through the afternoon. Min RH
may fall to around 40 percent for portions of NW Wisconsin with
values between 45 and 55 percent elsewhere. A little drier
Friday with min RH between 35 and 45 percent. Lowest RH values
will be in northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be lighter than
Thursday. There will be a small chance of rain south of US-2 in
Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday afternoon through early Sunday
morning. Most of the area should stay rain-free. Temps will be
warm with highs in the 50s Saturday and middle 50s to low 60s
Sunday. Widespread rain chances return Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-
     140>145-148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ146-
     147-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Huyck
FIRE WEATHER...Huyck