713
FXUS63 KDLH 161148
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
648 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms today into tonight. Totals up to half
  an inch for most areas, but up to or just over an inch
  possible along the Canadian Border through tonight.

- Warm temperatures on Friday with a few lingering showers,
  then cooling off this weekend into next week.

- There will be occasional chances for rain through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Clouds are expanding in coverage from southwest to northeast this
morning. This is associated with a broad shield of warm air and
moisture advection ahead of a warm front and low pressure system
that is expected to pass by to our west today into Friday. By this
afternoon, we`ll see PWATs rising to around 1.5 inches, and we`re
still looking at an initial frontal wave of rain and possibly some
embedded thunder starting around daybreak around the Brainerd Lakes
and spreading northeast through the afternoon. With this, widespread
amounts from around 0.2" to 0.5" are expected, with some locally
lower totals possible in northwest Wisconsin where there should be
less synoptic forcing. Some higher totals around an inch to 1.5" are
looking more likely around north-central Minnesota into the
Arrowhead where there should be better synoptic lift with an
upper-level shortwave and a bit better instability that should
be at least somewhat realized with the better synoptic lift.
Upper-level flow will be quasi-parallel to the warm front as it
moves northeast, and while this doesn`t really mean much for
flooding potential since the front will be pretty progressive,
we could see a bit of quick training of showers and storms this
afternoon after the initial wave of rain passes through.
Therefore, the highest rainfall amounts around 0.5"- 1" but
locally up to around 1.5" can be expected up north.

Outside of rain potential for today, temperatures will be warming up
into the 60s for many places as warm air advances northeast. South
to southeast winds will become a bit breezy, gusting up to 25 mph
this afternoon.

Tonight, the main synoptic and elevated warm frontal forcing will
move into Canada, but a bit of lingering instability should hang
around and we should see some areas of showers sticking around as
the surface warm front passes through. Additional rainfall amounts
are expected to remain under a quarter of an inch.

On Friday, a cold front will slowly pass through, but out ahead of
it, we`ll see some very mild temperatures in the warm sector with
widespread highs in the mid to upper 60s in Minnesota and lower 70s
in Wisconsin. There shouldn`t be too much for instability remaining,
but nevertheless the cold frontal passage will keep some ~30%
chances for some showers. After the front passes, low-level moisture
is expected to linger, so we will probably be stuck in some low-
level stratus and maybe some drizzle at times going into Saturday.

Saturday`s weather is looking a bit interesting as we will have a
rather deep upper-level trough making its way over the region from
the west along with a reinforcing cold front passing through. The
best frontogenesis will be central Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin, and some showers may accompany that into Saturday night.

Temperatures take a tumble Sunday with cool northwest flow and drier
weather settling in. We`ll have some quick ridging that should bring
some sunshine on Monday, but then the pattern looks to remain active
with potential for a clipper system to pass through around Tuesday.
We may see some rain with that lingering into Wednesday with some
colder air filtering in from Canada on the back side with
west/northwest flow. There may be enough moisture leftover some
wraparound showers going into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Ceilings will trend to MVFR and IFR this morning and persist
into tonight at most terminals, though HYR/BRD may see some
improvement later this afternoon and evening. Showers with
possibly some embedded thunder are expected to pass over the
terminals today as a warm front passes through. Expect temporary
MVFR visibilities with heavier showers as well as periods of fog
with the low stratus and moisture being added to the lower
atmosphere from the rain. There is low confidence about specific
times when visibilities may be reduced today. There are some
model signals for some potentially persistent fog for several
hours later this afternoon and evening, mainly at HIB/DLH with
southeast flow. Breezy southeast winds today gusting to around
15 to 20 kt. LLWS is expected to develop this evening as well.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Southeasterly winds are expected to increase a bit in speed through
today. Rain is expected to move in as well, and there could be a
few rumbles of thunder at times. Tonight, for most areas, winds
will decrease in speed briefly, but winds are expected to switch
gradually to southwesterly. Starting this evening, gusts up to
20 to 25 kt are expected around Saxon Harbor, and similar gusts
are expected to develop elsewhere by Friday morning and persist
into Friday evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for
all nearshore zones with this update. Wave heights are expected
to increase up to around 3 to 7 ft around Grand Marais to Grand
Portage late Friday afternoon through Friday night, so the Small
Craft Advisory continues there through Friday night. Winds are
expected to remain west to southwesterly on Saturday but
decrease in speed with gusts falling below 20 kt.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-
     141>147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM CDT Saturday
     for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for LSZ148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS