384
FXUS63 KDLH 131953
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
253 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance of showers and storms returns Friday night through
  Saturday. Several additional rounds of precip are possible
  Monday night through Wednesday.

- Widespread rainfall amounts will be low, generally less than
  0.05"

- A few storms may become strong Saturday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Current Overnight - Today:

During the current overnight hours through this morning, remnant
convective activity over the eastern Dakotas and west-central and
southern Minnesota will slide east through central/southern
Minnesota into Wisconsin. This will bring some chances for isolated
to scattered showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm or two to
primarily southern portions of the Northland, particularly the
Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin and areas south. With
limited instability and the main forcing with a passing weak
shortwave remaining to our south, no severe weather is expected.
Most areas will not see measurable rain, and those that do
should only see a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or two at
best. Patchy fog is also possible early this morning, mainly in
northeast Minnesota. Widespread dense fog is not expected.

As the shortwave to our south pushes east throughout the day today,
areas of clouds should persist, especially in the southern half of
the Northland. Can`t rule out a few sprinkles or stray showers in
inland northwest Wisconsin into the afternoon, but chances are low
(around 20% or less). Otherwise, expect a seasonal day today with
high temperatures in the mid-70s to low-80s for most locations along
with fairly light northeast winds. The funneling of these winds into
the head of Lake Superior may lead to a moderate risk for rip
currents at Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches late this
afternoon and evening. Smoke aloft will also keep skies hazy where
clouds clear.

Friday - Saturday:

Most of Friday is forecast to remain dry as a shortwave ridge and
surface high pressure influence the region. The surface pressure
gradient will be on the increase throughout Friday as weakly forced
shortwave energy on the western side of the shortwave ridge and
an associated surface low pressure system will be moving into
the Dakotas. This will drive increasing northeast winds off of
Lake Superior, leading to a likely risk of rip currents at
Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches Friday through Friday
evening. High temperatures will be similar to Thursday in the
mid-70s to mid-80s, though slightly cooler near Lake Superior.

Starting as early as Friday night and continuing into Saturday
morning, isentropic upglide/warm-air advection ahead of the
approaching low pressure system will bring areas of scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms into the Northland. Additional
isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorm activity
continues through much of Saturday on a scattered basis along and
ahead of the cold front that will be moving west to east across the
area. Medium-range ensembles vary on the exact timing of this
system, some bringing precipitation in as early as Friday night and
some bringing it in later towards Saturday morning or afternoon.
Given the fairly weak forcing associated with the shortwave trough
and marginal instability into the Northland with this system, severe
weather is not expected at this time. Global ensembles as a whole
are tame regarding precipitation amounts with this system, with most
only up to one quarter of an inch or less. In fact, NBM
probabilities for 0.25" or greater are only above 50% (i.e. 50-70%)
in portions of Itasca, far northern St. Louis, and Koochiching
counties in north-central Minnesota with lower chances elsewhere.
These same locations have a 30-40% probability for greater than 0.5"
and a less than 20% chance for greater than 1". The higher
accumulations would only be attainable for areas that see several
thunderstorms move overhead.

Saturday will be a couple degrees cooler than Friday, with high
temperatures forecast in the low-70s to low-80s, though slightly
cooler near Lake Superior.

Early to Mid-Next Week:

Most of the first half of next week will see a broader zonal to
slightly northwest flow pattern aloft, with periodic embedded
shortwave trough energy at times that could bring additional shower
and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) in the late Monday through mid-
week timeframe. However, confidence in exact timing, locations, and
amounts is lower at this time range. Temperatures for the first half
of next week are forecast to remain around normal with highs in the
70s to low-80s and overnight lows in the 50s to low-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions with winds less than 10 knots are expected this
afternoon. Mist and fog is possible tonight at HIB, BRD, and HYR
if skies can clear. HYR has the best chance of seeing fog
tonight and I included prevailing IFR visibility early Friday
morning with a TEMPO down to 1/2 mile and indefinite ceilings at
200 ft. Conditions return to VFR after fog/mist mixes out.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Patchy dense marine fog may develop near Chequamegon Bay and
over portions of the North Shore waters tonight. Visibility less
than 1 mile is expected in dense fog. Stronger northeast winds
develop Friday with gusts to 25 to 30 kt in the southwest arm of
Lake Superior the remainder of the South Shore waters east of
Sand Island. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Northeast
winds will relax Friday night into early Saturday before
strengthening again Saturday afternoon. Gusts of 15-25 knots are
possible in the southwest arm. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed once again.

There is a 30% chance of showers and isolated storms Friday
night and early Saturday morning. Rain and storm chances
increase to around 50% Saturday afternoon for portions of the
North Shore waters north of Two Harbors. Cloud-to-water
lightning and locally higher wind and waves are the main
concerns from any storms which develop. Additional periods of
dense fog are possible Friday night through next week,
particularly after precipitation and along the North Shore water
surface water temperatures are coolest. Additional storm
chances return Monday night through Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

RH values in the 30-50% range will recover to 85-95% tonight.
Friday looks like another relatively dry day with minimum RH
values in the mid 30 to mid 40 percent range. On-shore winds
from Lake Superior are expected and will be from the southeast
north of US-2 in Minnesota and easterly over northwest Wisconsin
and south of US-2 in Minnesota. Wind gusts of 15-20 mph are
possible in the wake of a lake breeze during the afternoon. A
weak low pressure system will move toward the Northland Friday
night and depart Saturday night. The system will bring a chance
of rain showers and perhaps a few isolated storms to the area.
Rain totals trend down with this forecast. Most areas should
expect less than 0.05" (five hundredths of an inch). Wetting
rains are likely where thunderstorms occur. See the relevant
zone forecast for your area below for additional details. High
pressure returns Sunday and Monday with good mixing both days.
Look for minimum RH values in the 30-50% range again.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-
     147-148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 2 AM CDT Saturday
     for LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Huyck
FIRE WEATHER...Huyck