879
FXUS63 KDLH 082201
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
401 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Arrowhead,
  Koochiching, Itasca, and the northern 2/3 of St. Louis county
  for 2 to 4 inches of snow. Around 1 to 3 inches of snow are
  expected elsewhere. This round of snow will fall this evening
  through early Wednesday morning.

- More snow is expected Tuesday afternoon through early
  Wednesday with potential for widespread accumulating snow and
  difficult travel possible for the Tuesday afternoon and early
  Wednesday morning commute. The Winter Storm Watch has been
  upgraded to a Warning for southern Cass to Burnett County, and
  to an Advisory for the remaining watch counties, generally
  along and south of US-2.

- Additional light snow episodes are possible late-week into
  next weekend along with cold air and below-zero temperatures
  likely at night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Headline Changes:
Two separate clippers will bring snow to the Northland to start
the week. The first arriving this evening, with snow
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, mainly across north central MN
and Arrowhead. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from
Koochiching and Itasca counties eastward through the Arrowhead,
through 3AM Tuesday.

The second clipper arrives tomorrow afternoon, and will pack a
bigger punch, with 5-6 inches possible along a corridor from
Southern Cass to Burnett county. Locally higher amounts up to 8
inches are possible. These counties have been upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning. Elsewhere, 3-5 inches is possible as far
north as northern Cass to southern St. Louis county, and all
other NW Wisconsin counties. These counties have been upgraded
to an Winter Weather Advisory. Elsewhere, lower amounts are
expected.

Tonight`s Clipper:
Starting to see heavier radar returns crossing the ND/MN state
line, with vis reductions on area obs, indicating heavier
snowfall now falling across the Red River Valley. Southerly flow
ahead of the clipper will result in lake effect snow along the
North Shore this afternoon and early evening. These should not
result in much accumulation, but could make for slippery roads
along the North Shore. The greater impact will come with heavier
snow associated with the clipper currently moving through the
Red River Valley, and expected to cross into the Northland by
5-6pm. This band will quickly push eastward this evening, with
most of the snowfall east of the Arrowhead and northwest WI
before sunrise Tuesday. Heavy snowfall rates are possible, with
0.5-1 inch per hour possible given steep lapse rates aloft and
strong synoptic lift under the shortwave. It will likely only
snow for 1-3 hours, with quick accumulations of 2-4inches.
Maintained the current Winter Weather Advisory, even through
there was a slight decrease in total accumulations, due to high
snowfall rates.

As the clipper exits to the east, winds do become west to
northwest, but diminish rather quickly. Have included a brief
period of lake effect snow on the South Shore early Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday`s Clipper:
A brief break in precipitation is expected Tuesday morning,
before the next clipper moves into the region. This clipper will
be more robust, dynamically, with a stronger surface low
passing to our southwest and pulling more moisture from the
Pacific Northwest across the Upper Midwest. Lapse rates and high
moisture content support another event with high snowfall rates
of 1+ inch per hour. There has been a southern shift both with
the best moisture and forcing, keeping the highest snow band
south of US-2, and closer to the Brainerd Lakes region eastward
across the I-35 corridor near Pine City. Could have 4-6inches in
that corridor, with up to 8 inches locally. With the southern
shift, amounts further north decreased, with 3-5 inches along
and south of US-2. Further north, across the BWCA and Arrowhead,
less than 2 inches is expected.

Most impacts from this clipper will occur Tuesday afternoon and
evening, during the evening commute. The Winter Storm Watch has
been upgraded to a Warning from southern Cass to Burnett
County, where the heavier band is expected. The remaining
counties in the watch have been upgraded to an Advisory.

Midweek through the Weekend:
As northwesterly flow develops Wednesday, weak cyclonic forcing
could lead to light snow showers continuing through the day,
with further enhancement along the South Shore. High pressure
arrives Wednesday night, bringing an end to the showers, but
with a surge of colder air that keeps highs in the teens
Thursday, and lows below zero. Another clipper moves through the
northern Plains Thursday night into Friday, with limited
accumulations for the Northland. This system does bring another
surge of cold air southward for the weekend, with highs around
0 degrees Saturday and lows in the -10F to -20F range.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Widespread cloud cover is now lowering ahead of an approaching
clipper, with MVFR cigs now at BRD, INL, and HIB. Through the
afternoon, expect flurries at times, before heavier snowfall
spreads from west to east this evening. Most likely time for
impacts at area forecast terminals is between 09/00Z and 09/06Z,
with cig reductions to IFR and vis to less than 2 miles as
heavier snowfall moves through the region. South winds this
afternoon will gust up to 20kts, and turn to the southwest as
the clipper passes tonight. As snowfall ends early Tuesday
morning, winds will diminish with slight improvement in cigs.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching clipper
this evening, and be hazardous to smaller vessels through
tonight. Snow will spread eastward over the water this evening
which will reduce visibility to less than 1/2 mile at times.
Winds quickly veer northwest after midnight tonight and will
weaken Tuesday morning.

Another fast-moving clipper will pass to the south of the lake
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will back
northeasterly and strengthen Tuesday evening and will become
hazardous for small craft once again. Gales are most likely
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning between Silver Bay and Grand
Portage. There is about a 20 to 40 percent chance of gales to
at least 35 knots during that time. A Gale Watch is now in
effect for that time period. Winds will gradually back
northwesterly by Wednesday afternoon and will gradually
diminish.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-
     018>020-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 3 AM CST
     Wednesday for MNZ025-035-037.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday
     for MNZ033-034-036-038.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for WIZ001>004-007>009.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for WIZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ121-140>148-
     150.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA