604
FXUS63 KDLH 020912
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
312 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries continue this morning before better chances for light
  snow showers move through this afternoon into tonight.

- Breezy northwest winds Wednesday bring cooler air to the
  region with lows Thursday morning falling below zero.

- Periodic chances for light snow showers persists through the
  remainder of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Southwesterly flow across the region early this morning was
leading to light snow flurries with isentropic lift in place. A
trough was analyzed from north-central Minnesota into
northwestern Iowa, southeastern Nebraska and central Kansas. An
area of low pressure was located over central Saskatchewan with
a warm front extending southeastward into the western Dakotas.
This low will move southeasterly today and tonight through the
Upper Midwest and bring chances for widespread snow showers to
the Northland. However, this clipper will be moisture starved,
so snowfall amounts will be minimal. Most of the region will see
around an inch or less with the highest amounts along the
International Border. Some lake enhancement will also occur
along the South Shore in northern Iron County were an inch or
two will be possible through Wednesday morning. Highs today will
be in the teens and 20s with lows tonight falling into the teens
and single digits above zero as colder air starts to filter into
the Northland.

Cold high pressure will move into the Northern Plains Wednesday
bringing northwesterly winds and cold air advection to the
Northland. Gusty winds to 20 to 25 mph are expected through the
day Wednesday before diminishing Wednesday night as the high
passes to the south. Highs Wednesday will likely be early in the
day as the cold air arrives, although a slight bump in
temperatures during the day in areas that see sun will be
possible, especially across the St. Croix Valley. Temperatures
will be in the low teens and single digits through much of the
day. Heading into Wednesday night, winds will weaken allowing
temperatures to drop into the teens and single digits below
zero. The coldest temperatures will be from central into east-
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where clearing skies
are expected. Wind chills are currently expected to remain just
above Cold Weather Advisory level, but if winds stay a bit
stronger or more clearing than expected occurs, advisories may
be needed.

A northwest flow pattern will keep the cold temperatures and
periodic chances for snow in place through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend. These will likely be moisture starved
clipper systems, so any accumulations will likely be minimal.
One of these systems will move through for Thursday night into
Friday, but predictability decreases for the weekend. What is
certain is that the cold temperatures will stick around through
the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures look to warm
into the 20s by the end of the week before another shot of cold
air drops highs back into the teens for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail through much of the period as
warm air advection brings low stratus and snow showers, followed
by a cold front later this afternoon and evening with another
round of snow showers. There may be some brief improvements in
ceilings later today with some scattering possible. Visibilities
in snow showers will likely be MVFR or lower, but these
reductions will likely be fairly brief given the shower nature
of the activity. Snow characteristic will be light given the
lack of moisture and well below freezing temperatures.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 312 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A clipper will approach western Lake Superior this afternoon
leading to increasing southwesterly winds at 10 to 20 knots.
Gusts to 25 to 30 knots will be possible across the Outer
Apostle Islands and from Grand Marais to Grand Portage along
with building waves in these areas as well this afternoon and
evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for these
areas. Winds will become northwesterly in the wake of the front
late tonight and increase for Wednesday and Wednesday night with
widespread winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 35 knots.
Additional advisories will likely be needed.

Another clipper system will move through for Thursday night into
Friday will bring a period of strong winds. Winds will
strengthen from the southwest as the system approaches and then
veer northwesterly behind a cold front Thursday night and
Friday. In the wake of the cold front, winds will strengthen
further. There is a 30-60% chance of gales to 35 knots over much
of the North Shore waters during that time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CST this evening
     for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight
     for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH