031
FXUS63 KDLH 311854
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
154 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather with scattered showers and storms through Labor
  Day that could bring localized heavy rainfall.

- Areas of fog overnight.

- Thunderstorms are possible with a cold front Tuesday and
  Tuesday night.

- Cooler temperatures and scattered rain showers expected
  Wednesday through the rest of the week.

- Frost Advisories may eventually be needed if winds calm down
  Thursday morning with widespread lows in the 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A complex forecast is unfolding for the Northland for this
afternoon in a very low forced environment. A persistent and
slow-moving band of showers is exiting the Twin Ports though it
brought over an inch of rain in its wake. While the atmospheric
setup doesn`t seem the best setup for heavy rain...high
moisture content, low freezing levels, and subtle low-level
convergence are all contributing to its formation. As this
relatively small spatial area of showers slowly tracks
southwest, some areas could see rainfall totals exceeding an
inch, and locally heavy downpours are possible as redevelopment
occurs along the North Shore this afternoon.

Looking ahead, most places should see a mix of sun and clouds
to start the afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the
mid-70s to low-80s though lower values underneath the areas that
received rainfall this morning. Daytime heating will create
enough instability to support isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially over the Arrowhead region. Given
the weak steering winds, storms will be slow-moving and could
continue to produce brief periods of locally heavy rain. However,
the overall setup doesn`t favor severe weather, as weak winds
aloft will result in more of a pulsing, non-organized storm
mode. While most of the Northland will remain dry, some of the
heaviest showers could drop 1 to 3 inches of rain with high
resolution guidance hinting at this very heavy localized threat
albeit a small chance of it. With hodographs showing very little
flow throughout the depth of the atmosphere, storms that do pop
won`t move much. This at least warrants a high pop forecast
than NBM with higher QPF even though we may not get the exact
area right. These chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms
will continue overnight, although a general downward trend in
coverage is expected, so again went quite a bit higher than NBM.
Patchy fog may also develop where skies clear and winds calm.

Labor Day will bring a return of weak southerly winds, which will
once again provide enough moisture and instability to fuel afternoon
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
be similar to today, reaching the mid-70s to low-80s. Storms will
again be slow-moving, increasing the potential for localized heavy
rainfall, but the overall threat for severe weather remains low.

Our next significant change in the weather pattern arrives on
Tuesday as a cold front sags southward across the Northland,
bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. While
some of these storms could be strong, the severe threat remains
low due to limited instability and weak winds aloft. The main
event, however, is the closed upper-level low that will settle
over the western Great Lakes on Wednesday and remain through
the end of the week. This will usher in a taste of autumn, with
highs struggling to get out of the 50s and low-60s from Wednesday
through Saturday. Widespread clouds and scattered showers will be a
consistent theme during this period. The combination of cold air and
cyclonic flow aloft could even lead to a few of the seasons first
snowflakes mixing in with the rain, especially during Wednesday
and Thursday nights across northern Minnesota. Additionally, the
colder temperatures could necessitate Frost Advisories if skies
clear and winds calm down.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR outside of isolated +SHRA. TSRA may develop over northern
Minnesota this afternoon, mainly over the Arrowhead. If a shower
or storm moves over INL, HIB, or DLH, expect visibility less
than 1 mile for short durations. Chance of those conditions
impacting the terminals is less than 30 percent thus omitted
explicit weather and visibility reductions with this forecast
and kept VCSH. KDLH may be most susceptible to showers over the
next several hours as a convergent band of showers persists.
Fog may develop at the terminals again tonight provided skies
clear out and winds become calm.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

High pressure will remain in place over the region for the next
few days. This will keep winds generally less than 10 knots
from the southwest. Isolated showers and storms are likely today
and tonight particularly near the North Shore.

A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across western
Lake Superior on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
with the front and winds will veer northwesterly and increase
in speed behind the front. Conditions will become hazardous for
small craft from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe