360
FXUS63 KDLH 080001
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
701 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms spread across the Northland tonight through
  Monday. Non-severe thunderstorms are expected, along with
  widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.1-0.8".

- A cold front brings another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
  evening through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous severe
  storms with all hazards are possible, especially Wednesday.
  Widespread rainfall in excess of at least 0.5" is likely.

- Hot temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday when
  afternoon highs away from Lake Superior should be in the 80s
  to low 90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. Heat
  Advisories may be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Through this week, we will be under the influence of an upper level
trough-ridge pattern pushing its way west to east across the CONUS.

TODAY INTO MONDAY:

A shortwave embedded within a stout ridge pushing over the Great
Lakes will bring the next chance of precipitation into the region
overnight tonight into Monday. The first couple leading showers and
thunderstorms could arrive into the Brainerd Lakes as early as 7-
10pm this evening, but should be short lived, as they will be mostly
diurnally driven. Better upper level forcing arrives overnight into
early Monday morning, when we should expect to see a blossoming of
widespread rain showers and thunderstorms into the Northland. These
continue through the day Monday, gradually moving out of the area
through the afternoon and evening. No severe storms are expected
with this disturbance, and the area should see anywhere from 0.1-
0.8" of rain, highest amounts towards the Brainerd Lakes and lowest
in the MN Arrowhead. A few lucky folks might even get to measure
over an inch on Tuesday morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into
our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low
should traipse across the Dakotas on Tuesday, getting into north-
central Minnesota in the evening to overnight hours. Severe storm
potential along this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and
shear, and a strong mid level jet. Any severe potential on Tuesday
is somewhat limited for the Northland however, due to the timing of
the front coming in overnight, which will make for a battle between
that good instability/shear and overnight inhibition. Still, the
environment might be able to MacGyver together a strong to severe
storm or two. Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across
our area, buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect
the Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to
scattered to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing
all hazards. There is some uncertainty with this setup, as the front
continues to trend faster and lingering precipitation and convection
Wednesday morning could make things messy. Wednesday should be a
decent rainmaker, with a decent chance for a widespread 0.5"+.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of any storms will be HOT
as we find ourselves under ample WAA. Expect afternoon highs to be
in the 80s to low 90s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew
points in the 60s and 70s will make for a very sticky heat. Heat
Advisories will likely be needed Tuesday and Wednesday, with a few
areas in NW WI approaching Excessive Heat Warning thresholds on
Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

Some additional wrap around showers and a few non-severe
thunderstorms are possible Thursday, along with relatively cooler
temperatures. We stay in a  zonal flow pattern into the weekend,
stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains
moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at
time, but nothing significant is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions will linger into this evening before ceilings
begin to lower as rainfall spreads in. Ceilings will lower to
MVFR to IFR with periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms
for the overnight hours into Monday morning. Rainfall will bring
times of MVFR visibilities as well. Some improvement is expected
for Monday afternoon as the main area of precipitation moves to
the east, but models hint at the redevelopment of additional
showers and storms during the mid to late afternoon hours across
north-central Minnesota. Winds will remain southeasterly through
the period and will remain gusty, although may weaken a bit
overnight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Northeast winds continue over the next couple of days. The winds are
expected to be strongest today, with some gusts of 20-30 knots
possible this afternoon. Monday and Tuesday should see some
afternoon gusts of 10-15 knots, but no additional small craft
advisories are expected at this time. Patchy, transient areas of
dense fog are likely through the next day or two. At times it could
become widespread enough to warrant dense fog advisories. Expect
showers and thunderstorms through the day Monday, but no severe
weather is expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

More ample moisture is expected to move into the Northland this
week, after one last dry day this afternoon. Breezy southeast winds
and afternoon RH down around 30% has led to the continuation of a
near-critical fire weather SPS for northern St. Louis, northern
Itasca, and Koochiching counties. Areas of widespread rain showers
and thunderstorms push into the area overnight into Monday morning,
then continuing through the day. By Tuesday morning, expected
rainfall accumulations of 0.1-0.8", with some locally higher values
up to 1" for those areas that see the most robust thunderstorms,
most likely in the Brainerd Lakes area. More thunderstorms return
Tuesday into Wednesday along a cold front moving from west to east.
Scattered to numerous severe storms may be possible with this,
especially on Wednesday. This should be an even more robust rain
producer however, with widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.5-
0.75"+ likely.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-
     141-143>146-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Levens
FIRE WEATHER...Levens