860
FXUS63 KDLH 270624
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
124 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Convection has been struggling to reach its full environmental
  potential, but severe weather remains possible through the
  overnight hours. Isolated to scattered severe storms will be
  capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and frequent
  lightning.

- Warm temperatures continue through the coming week, with
  occasional precipitation chances. The next significant chance
  of precipitation is Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Storms have been going since this afternoon, but have been
having a hard time strengthening to their full potential due to
the cap seen in the low levels. However, instability and wind
shear are still plentiful at 3000-4000 J/kg and 50 kts. However,
the current convection could help to erode the cap to the point
that thunderstorms will be able to tap into the ripe
environment. Storms are still expected to remain elevated due to
surface temperatures cooling overnight, but storms will
primarily be capable of producing large hail. Storms will linger
into the morning, when the chance for severe storms will start
to lower.

Hot conditions continue today, though not quite hot enough for a
heat advisory. Still, expect heat index values approaching 90
and dewpoints remaining soupy in the upper 60s. Smoke aloft may
inhibit temperatures slightly, but not enough to bring relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Convective trends are the main concern for the rest of the day,
with an MCV sliding out of the Manitoba, North Dakota, and
Minnesota area to the east-southeast. It should move into the
Northland this afternoon, bringing an initial round of showers
and storms to the forecast area. The current convection is
elevated in nature, tapping into the extreme amount of MUCAPE we
saw on this mornings KINL upper air sounding. What this
convection does over the next few hours is still somewhat
uncertain. If it remains elevated and simply drifts to the
southeast, we may have mainly a large hail threat. However, the
airmass over our region is destabilizing, and we have 40 to 50
knots of 0-6km shear. If we can break the cap and the storms can
become surface based, we could be dealing with an expanding
QLCS and associated damaging wind threat. We are in wait and see
mode for now. Additional storm development later this afternoon
and tonight is going to depend on flow moving up over the 850mb
baroclinic zone, and initiation will be difficult to forecast
very far ahead of time. Apart from the storms, dangerous heat
persists this afternoon, with temperatures already well into the
80s and Brainerd has risen above 90 already. The heat
headlines, both warning and advisory, continue as is with hazy,
smoky skies.

For Monday, temperatures temper slightly as winds shift to the
northwest and bring in some drier air, but conditions will
remain unseasonably warm. Heat indices will still approach the
low 90s, especially in the Brainerd Lakes area. Isolated severe
thunderstorms remain possible in the early morning as an upper
level shortwave and cold front traverse the region. Any
organized storms could produce large hail and damaging winds,
mainly early in the day. Areas of wildfire smoke will also
persist, keeping skies fairly hazy across the Northland.

High pressure builds into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday,
bringing drier conditions and at least a few days off from the
oppressive humidity. While daytime highs will remain above
normal in the 80s to low 90s, the drier airmass will make it
feel more comfortable across the region. Generally quiet, dry,
and pleasant weather is expected to hold firm for both days with
comfortable overnight lows in the upper 50s and 60s. Isolated,
diurnally driven showers and storms may be possible during the
afternoon and early evening.

Heading into Thursday and Friday, the quiet stretch comes to an
end as the next shortwave trough and associated cold front
approaches from the west. This system will bring our next
widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area.
High temperatures will continue to reach the 80s, with humidity
levels creeping back up slightly as southerly flow returns ahead
of the advancing system.

As we move into next weekend, near to slightly above normal
temperatures will persist. Afternoon highs will generally remain
in the 80s. We will be in a somewhat stagnant pattern with the
upper level ridge sliding east to over the Great Plains, keeping
the storm track generally to our north. We may get occasional
waves of showers and storms which dive across the area, but
nothing consistent is appearing in the model runs just yet.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Storms continue tonight, training periodically over INL, HIB,
and DLH. If cells manage to go directly over a terminal, MVFR to
IFR visibilities are possible with heavy rainfall. Fog is also
possible tonight at these terminals, with IFR conditions
expected between storms. Fog should clear by mid morning
Monday.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Marine fog has temporarily cleared due to storms over western
Lake Superior, but could make a reappearance in the early
morning that may require an extension in the Dense Fog Advisory
through the morning. Otherwise northeast winds up to 15 kts are
expected this afternoon before decreasing again overnight.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Hot conditions continue, with heat index values approaching 90
today. Smoke aloft and a lake breeze is somewhat limiting the
highest temperatures across the Minnesota Arrowhead and near
Lake Superior today, but heat will move back in later this
week. Relative humidity values will remain higher and are not
anticipated to get much lower than 40% for the majority of the
week. Today will be windiest, with northwest winds up to 20 mph
possible this afternoon. Winds will shift back to the south to
southwest tomorrow and will remain at 10 mph or less for the
week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A few daily temperature records are forecast to be within a few
degrees of either bring tied or broken in the Northland today.

Record High Temperatures:

July 26:           Forecast:
KDLH: 92/1930      89
KINL: 93/1914      88
KBRD: 100/1929     95
KHIB: 91/2015      89
KASX: 95/1929      90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
CLIMATE...LE