146
FXUS63 KDLH 302327
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
627 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions persist for tonight with another chilly night
  expected.

- Temperatures warm through the weekend and into early next
  week. A few spotty showers are possible Saturday.

- A large system will impact the Upper Midwest for Monday into
  Tuesday with significant rainfall amounts expected for much of
  the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Surface high pressure stretched from the Canadian Prairies to
the Great Lakes early this afternoon. Mainly clear skies were
observed from the Iron Range northward with cloud cover moving
in from the south. Dry conditions will prevail this afternoon
and tonight with highs in the 40s and lower 50s and lows tonight
falling into the upper 20s to middle 30s.

The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east tonight with
warmer 850mb temps advecting northward. A weak warm front will
lift from the Central Plains late tonight into southern South
Dakota and southern Minnesota by Saturday evening. Warm air
advection and isentropic lift with the front will lead to
chances for showers through the day and into the evening.
Rainfall amounts will be light and dry air near the surface will
likely limit what reaches the ground. Highs will be in the 50s
with temperatures falling into the 40s and lower 50s after
sunset. Sunday looks mainly dry outside of a few spotty showers
as temperatures continue to warm. Highs will be in the middle
50s to middle 60s with lows in the 40s.

The pattern turns more active heading into the new week with a
large system impacting the central CONUS in the Monday-Tuesday
timeframe. A deep trough will dig into the Rockies Sunday night
into Monday with surface low pressure developing across eastern
Colorado. This low moves northeast through the day Monday and
into the Upper Midwest Monday night. Widespread rainfall will
spread across the Northland through the day Monday and into
Monday night. Heading into Tuesday, an upper low will drop out
of the Canadian Prairies and interact with the system over the
Upper Midwest. Questions remain as to what will happen during
the interaction, but what is known is that rainfall will
continue for Tuesday into Tuesday night as the system slowly
moves through the region. PWATs with this system will be in
excess of an inch and approach an inch and a quarter, which
would be over the 90th percentile for the date and near the
daily max. Widespread rainfall amounts of three-quarters of inch
to 1.25 inches is expected with an axis of higher amounts in
excess of 2 inches. This heaviest axis of rainfall has been
wobbling across the region from model run to run, so placement
is uncertain at this time. However, the signal for it remains
strong. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s.

Chances for showers will linger for Wednesday as this system
departs with drier conditions for the latter half of the week as
high pressure builds in. Cooler air will filter in behind the
system with highs retreating into the 40s and 50s for Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail through tonight as high pressure centered
to our east slowly exits into early Saturday. This will keep
winds light and variable through early Saturday morning, as
well. Ceilings will lower to MVFR from southwest to northeast on
Saturday, starting at BRD around sunrise. A stray shower may
accompany these lower ceilings at BRD late Saturday morning,
otherwise VCSH/scattered very light rain chances arrive at most
of the remaining terminals Saturday afternoon due to drier air
in the lower portions of the atmosphere to start. Some IFR
ceiling potential (10-20% chances) exists at BRD Saturday
afternoon and towards the very end of the 00Z TAF period at HYR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Minimal marine concerns are expected through the weekend. Winds
will increase early next week as a large system moves into the
region. Breezy northeasterly winds Monday and again Tuesday may
lead to conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

High pressure will keep light winds and dry conditions in place
for this afternoon. RH values will bottom out in the 35 to 50%
range with driest values along the higher terrain of the North
Shore and into the Wisconsin Pine Barrens. Mainly cloudy skies
with chances for showers will be seen for Saturday, but any
accumulations will remain under a tenth of an inch. Better
chances for rainfall arrive for Monday and Tuesday with chances
lingering into midweek. The Monday-Tuesday system looks to bring
widespread rainfall with accumulations of at least a half inch
for most locations. Higher amounts of 1.5-2" plus will be
possible as well, mainly across the southern half of the region.
This axis of heavier rainfall has moved around over the past few
days, but the signal remains fairly strong for a good soaking
over most of the Northland.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH