016
FXUS63 KDLH 151755
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms through this evening, then
  lingering light showers and sprinkles into Sunday.

- Dry most of Monday, then rain and storms possible Monday
  night. A few strong storms are possible. Lingering storms are
  possible Tuesday afternoon and evening as well.

- Mainly dry Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 70s to
  around 80.

- Another quick shot of rain is possible Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Rain persists early this afternoon for parts of northeast Minnesota
associated with the warm air advection area ahead of a low pressure
system that will pass across the Canadian Border into this evening.
As we go into this afternoon, an area of clearing in west-central
Minnesota will promote some surface-based instability. A cold front
passing through later this afternoon and evening should kick off
additional showers and thunderstorms. Convective parameters don`t
look favorable for strong/severe storms with MUCAPE likely around
1000 J/kg and rather straight hodographs. We could have some gusty
winds with the storms, but otherwise expecting them to be pretty run-
of-the-mill thunderstorms. These should pass through along with the
front through this evening, with the threat ending just after
midnight.

Cold air advection and a little moisture remaining could
keep some sprinkles or light scattered showers around through Sunday
morning. With dry northwest flow on Sunday, shower activity looks
like it should decrease by midday, but it`s not totally out of the
realm of possibility that there could be a few pop-up showers Sunday
afternoon if there is just enough moisture remaining. Otherwise, I
lowered RH a bit from NBM Sunday afternoon as northwest flow has
been producing pretty dry RH lately given wildfire influence and
just general dry air masses.

High pressure will pass through Sunday night into Monday, leading to
quiet weather. Winds will be more southwest on Monday and with
lingering dry air, RH may dip pretty low. I lowered RH below NBM
again Monday afternoon with some 30-40% min RH values not out of the
question.

A passing trough and cold front will introduce another chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and especially
Monday night from west to east. The timing of this during the
evening and overnight may mean that we end up with some leftover
storms from the west with decaying instability. With that said,
there could be enough leftover to produce some small hail and gusty
winds. Severe chances are looking overall small, but a rogue low-end
severe storm can`t be totally ruled out (<2% chance).

On Tuesday, there may be a bit of a battleground between post-cold
frontal northwesterly flow and wherever the cold front ends up
during the afternoon. Some storms could be possible mainly in
northwest Wisconsin with a northerly solution, but right now it`s
looking like that threat is trending south and Tuesday will
probably be dry for most places.

Wednesday and Thursday are looking generally dry with high pressure
passing through. Temperatures should be roughly seasonal with highs
in the 70s to around 80. Around Friday, another cold front is
looking possible with potential for some showers and thunderstorms.
Strong or severe storms look unlikely at this time. High pressure
and quiet weather is favored as we go into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Lingering showers may affect HYR/DLH/HIB/INL in the next couple
hours, then potentially a few hours with little to no rain or
visibility restrictions. A cold front is expected to pass
through later this afternoon and evening, and scattered
thunderstorms are expected as the front passes through.
Temporary MVFR visibilities will be possible. MVFR to IFR
ceilings are expected to persist this afternoon and generally
deteriorate going into tonight as enough lingering moisture is
expected to result in some pretty widespread MVFR visibilities
due to fog. Fog and isolated lingering showers will persist
through tonight, then mix out gradually to VFR conditions
Sunday morning. Winds will be a bit breezy this afternoon, then
generally calm down briefly as winds switch with the frontal
passage later this afternoon and early evening, with the
exception of some blustery and variable winds in and around any
passing thunderstorms. Winds pick up from the northwest tonight
into Sunday with gusts around 15 kt.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Breezy northeast winds persist into this evening. As of now,
observations and forecast guidance suggest winds remaining at or
just below 20 kt for gusts, so no Small Craft Advisories have
been issued. However, we may see very brief gusts that could
approach 22-23 kt or so. If any conditions develop and remain
consistent, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for a few
hours. Wave heights have been observed
hovering around 2 ft. Some occasional 3 ft waves are possible
this afternoon at times. Expect winds to decrease after sunset
and switch to northwesterly following a cold front tonight. Some
showers and thunderstorms are possible as the front passes
through. Severe weather is not expected. Northwest winds persist
Sunday with gusts to around 15 kt. Winds switch to southwest
Monday some gusts approaching 20-25 kt around Grand Marais to
Grand Portage. Small Craft Advisories may be needed up there.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Rain mainly in the Arrowhead early this afternoon will translate
to scattered thunderstorms as a cold front passes through this
evening. Additional amounts will be variable, but generally
around 0.1-0.3" for most places through tonight. Lingering
sprinkles are possible into Sunday morning.

Sunday afternoon, expect drier conditions. With northwest flow,
RH will likely fall into the 40-50% range, especially for areas
in the Arrowhead in the vicinity of wildfires. Wind gusts up to
15-20 mph are expected. On Monday, winds switch around to
southwesterly, and it will be another drier day. Some places may
see RH fall as low as ~35%. Winds are again likely to gust up to
15-20 mph.

Showers and storms are possible with a cold front Monday night.
Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be light, but a
wetting rain may be possible locally for places that do see
thunderstorms. Some more showers and storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon/evening mainly in northwest Wisconsin, though the
trend for this time period is for storms to track further south.

More dry weather is expected Wednesday-Thursday with RH falling
into the ~35-45% range for many places. A cold front Friday
could bring another chance for rain/storms.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS