318
FXUS63 KDLH 291722
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog and patchy dense fog is expected tonight.

- Plenty of warm, quiet weather with plenty of sunshine through
Labor Day.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday with much cooler
temperatures expected Wednesday through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Plenty of sunshine out there this afternoon, but there are also some
pockets of clouds. There has been a frontal boundary hanging around
approximately central Minnesota this morning that produced a stripe
of showers with some embedded thunder. At this time, there are some
lingering clouds in the area. That activity has been slowly
disintegrating across the Brainerd Lakes and the front is expected
to continue to disintegrate into tonight with high pressure settling
in.

Tonight`s main forecast challenge will be fog. Models are in pretty
good agreement that there will be some, and the most likely areas to
see it will be where that front had previously been and where rain
fell, so targeting east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
HREF probabilities for visibilities under one mile are around 30-50%
for many places. Generally speaking, many places can expect some fog
tonight, and some areas of dense fog will probably occur as well.
There isn`t enough confidence that any dense fog will be widespread
enough to warrant dense fog advisories, nor is there enough
confidence on location, so no headlines will be issued with this
update, but it`s possible that some headlines could be needed later
tonight into Saturday morning if it does end up being particularly
dense for some parts of east-central Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin.

For Saturday through Labor Day, it`s looking like a beautiful
weekend with plenty of sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures as
high pressure settles in. There are virtually no chances of rain
through the period, though it is possible that there could be some
isolated pockets of weak instability and lift that could prompt some
light isolated showers somewhere. Some CAMs do have hints of this
around Saturday evening in the Arrowhead, for example, but
confidence is low enough that I won`t add in any PoPs at this time.
Outside of that, light winds and highs in the 70s to low 80s.

On Labor Day, high pressure starts to depart to the east and we get
into southerly flow. More active weather is expected to make a
return going into Tuesday with a series of troughs passing through
aloft and a pretty robust cold front that should make its way
through around Tuesday afternoon and evening. With this, we can
expect showers and thunderstorms. At this time, convective
parameters are looking pretty paltry for any stronger storms. MUCAPE
is looking to be less than 1 kJ/kg and bulk shear maybe around 25
kt. Sounding profiles actually look either slightly capped or that
long-skinny CAPE profile that would be favorable for flooding, but
not in this case since the front will be moving through pretty
quickly. PWAT values hovering around or slightly over an inch may be
enough to spit out a quick quarter to an inch of rain for most
places.

Much cooler air is expected to quickly filter in behind the cold
front. Highs for Wednesday and Thursday should be only in the 50s
and 60s. There could be a few light wraparound showers on Wednesday,
but otherwise it`s looking like high pressure should settle in for
at least Wednesday.

After that, models diverge a bit for Thursday and Friday, but there
may be another cold front that passes through sometime, perhaps
bringing more shower chances and generally keeping us in a fall
weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

MVFR clouds should continue to disintegrate at BRD through the
next hour. VFR everywhere through this afternoon and evening.
Looking like a good chance of fog nearly everywhere tonight
except perhaps INL. BRD/HYR see the best chance of a several-
hour long period of dense fog with IFR/LIFR conditions. DLH/HIB
may also see periods of dense fog, though there is less
confidence there (30-50% chance). Fog is expected to lift
Saturday morning with VFR conditions returning. Light winds
through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Northeast winds today will become light and variable at night and
light from the southwest during the day through Monday as high
pressure settles in, so very minimal marine hazards through the
holiday weekend. A potent cold front is expected Tuesday night,
causing winds to become north to northwesterly. Wind gusts to 20-25
kt going into Wednesday may create hazardous conditions for small
craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS