663
FXUS63 KDLH 152323
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight and continue into
  Friday.

- Temperatures warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal for Friday.

- Temperatures then cool for the weekend with additional chances
  for rainfall into the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure was in place across the Upper Midwest early this
afternoon under mainly cloudy skies. Some clearing was occurring
over northern Wisconsin and western Lake Superior with that
trend expected to continue into this evening. However, clouds
will spread back in overnight as a warm front lifts into the
region as low pressure develops over the Central Plains. High
pressure moves off to the east tonight and showers associated
with the warm front will arrive during the early morning hours
into mid to late morning Thursday. There may be some thunder in
this activity with a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE lifting in as
well, but no strong or severe storms are expected. Most of the
rainfall will exit to the northeast by the afternoon hours, but
models try to keep some showers in the area into Thursday night
and Friday morning as the Northland remains in the warm sector
of the low.

The low will then lift into southern Manitoba and occlude Friday
as the upper trough moves into the Northern Plains. A cold front
will move across the region during the day with another band of
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder possible ahead of the
front. Highs Friday look to be around 5 to 10 degrees above
normal in the 60s and lower 70s, but if the front is quicker
than currently forecast, that may limit heating and keep the
warm air across northwest Wisconsin resulting in cooler
temperatures. Friday night will see northwest flow setup in the
wake of the low bringing cooler, more seasonable temperatures
for the weekend with 50s expected for Sunday. A deeper longwave
trough will move through the central CONUS Saturday and bring an
area of low pressure from the Missouri Valley Saturday evening
to lower Michigan on Sunday. Most of our Minnesota zones look to
see minimal shower activity from this system as it passes to our
south and east, but northwest Wisconsin will see better chances
for showers Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A ridge of high pressure will pass through to start the new work
week before another trough moves into the Nation`s midsection
for Tuesday into Wednesday. Spatial and temporal differences are
seen in guidance for this system, so overall confidence is low.
However, there is a signal for some rainfall in the region
during this time frame. High temperatures will be in the upper
50s during this time, but lows will be in the 30s. As such, some
areas may see their first snowflakes of the season, but have
kept a liquid forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

An expansive stratus deck continues to slowly march northeast across
the region this evening. Ceilings with this cloud deck vary from VFR
to IFR. As the evening progresses more widespread MVFR ceilings will
overtake the area. Towards the morning hours rain will enter from
the southwest and spread northeast through the day. There is just
enough juice in the atmosphere that we can`t fully rule out a rumble
of thunder or two. Also worth noting that the latest high res
guidance is starting to show a slowing trend in the arrival time of
the rain showers. We should hopefully have a better grasp on timing
with the next set of TAFs since the band of rain should have formed
over southwest MN by then.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure will keep winds at 10 knots or less tonight. IT
will shift off to the east by Thursday morning with winds
turning southerly to southeasterly at 5 to 15 knots. As low
pressure moves into the Upper Midwest Thursday night into
Friday, southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with
gusts to around 20 knots. This may generate waves of 2 to 4 feet
along parts of the North Shore and create conditions hazardous
to small craft. Rain chances will be seen tonight through Friday
evening, but are not expected to lead to significant visibility
restrictions.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...BJH