988
FXUS63 KDLH 180541
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1241 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures will cool over the weekend behind the system
  bringing rain showers to the Northland.

- Temperatures closer to normal early next week, and will
  actually reach below normal for Tuesday.

- Additional chances for rainfall will occur throughout next
  week, watching for a few snowflakes to fall among raindrops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A cold front is presently moving through the Northland, with
scattered rain showers along it. Rain totals from here on out
will be not much more than enough to wet the ground (<0.1").
Behind, a dry back door cold front will actually lower
temperatures overnight across northeast Minnesota. Saturday
will feature cooling temperatures in northwest Wisconsin, though
most in the area will still reach the low 60s before the cold
front moves through.

Sunday will be dry, partly sunny, and cooler as a small ridge
moves over the area. High temperatures will be in the low to
mid 50s under CAA with northwest flow aloft. Since there is
still a shortwave off to the east, there are slight chances for
some morning showers across north central Wisconsin, but showers
will likely be further east into the UP and Lake Michigan.

For Monday, a closed upper level low will move along the
US/Canada border and bring more chances for precipitation
through Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures below freezing aloft
will lower towards the surface Monday night, which could lead to
a mix or a short period of flakes into Tuesday morning. Since
the ground is still warm, if there is any snow, it is not likely
to accumulate. This will be accompanied with chilly temperatures
on Tuesday, with the majority of the Northland to be below 50.

For the latter half of the week, we will once again be under a
large ridge which will lead to dry weather and above average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Widespread MVFR cloud cover still persists over Ontario and far
northern Minnesota as an upper level low moves into Ontario.
Ceilings for the terminals are still largely VFR with MVFR
stratus affecting KINL. A band of MVFR stratus will sweep across
the northern terminals overnight into Saturday morning,
affecting KINL, KHIB and possibly also KDLH. Saturday will see
intermittent cloud cover with a 30-50% chance of MVFR conditions
at times for most of the terminals. Southwest winds will
gradually swing to west or even northwest during the day
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Gusty southwest winds today will continue as a round of showers
moves through. Winds will slowly decrease tonight as a
secondary cold front moves through tonight into Saturday. Winds
will increase again Sunday as a low pressure off to the east
moves northeast and pressure gradients tighten over Lake
Superior. Winds will be borderline hazardous for small craft,
but there`s uncertainty in whether additional Small Craft
Advisories will be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...KML