700
FXUS63 KDLH 112315
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
615 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible tonight, with some spots with
  visibilities less than a mile.

- Isolated showers and storms possible Wednesday. If they manage
  to form, a few could be severe with damaging winds and large
  hail.

- Dry and comfortable weather for the late week before chances
  for widespread precipitation arrives late Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Pleasant conditions will prevail across the Northland for the
rest of today, though elevated wildfire smoke drifting overhead
will maintain hazy skies. Weather conditions remain mostly quiet
through the evening, but atmospheric moisture and light winds
will allow patchy fog to develop after midnight. Fog will be
concentrated mainly across portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead
and northwest Wisconsin, where some patches of dense fog with
visibilities under one mile are possible during the early
morning hours.

Early morning fog will slowly dissipate on Wednesday, giving way to
partly sunny skies. Guidance shows potential for isolated
thunderstorm development, particularly along Highway 2 and
southward. Low level lapse rates will be high, but this layer
is also shallow overall. This will lead to little instability
overall for the storms to tap into. Lingering dry air will also
prevent some precipitation from reaching the ground. Finally, high-
resolution forecast models vary on convective coverage, but of
storms that do materialize, a few could become strong to
severe. The main threats with the strongest storms will be
localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to one
inch in diameter.

Any lingering convection will taper off early Thursday morning,
giving way to high pressure building across the Upper Midwest.
This surface ridge will deliver quiet weather once again along
with drier air, resulting in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
across the region. These conditions will linger into Friday
daytime under partly sunny skies.

Weather patterns will transition Friday night as an upper-level trough
moves over the region, tapping into moisture drawn from the
south. Cloud cover will steadily increase, setting the stage for
widespread precipitation across the Northland. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms will spread into the area late Friday
night and continue through Saturday as dynamic low pressure
moves directly across the region. Storms are not expected to be
severe at this time.

Precipitation will taper off from west to east Saturday night as the
storm system departs to the east. High pressure will build back into
the Upper Midwest on Sunday, leading to decreasing cloud cover and a
return to partly sunny skies. Dry and comfortable weather will
persist across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for
the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions with calm to light winds persist through the TAF
period with the exception of patchy fog to dense fog later
tonight into early Wednesday morning. Fog potential is best in
the 08-13Z timeframe at KDLH/KHIB/KHYR where IFR to LIFR
visibility and potentially LIFR ceilings in fog are expected.
Smoke aloft will continue to create hazy skies throughout the
TAF period. Also cannot rule out some late afternoon/early
evening shower/storm chances in central Minnesota, but better
chances for precipitation arrive Wednesday evening and night.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light winds under 10 knots and waves 1 foot or less will
persist across the nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior
through the next 72 hours. Elevated wildfire smoke will produce
a hazy appearance to the sky today. Patchy fog may briefly
reduce visibilities late tonight into Wednesday morning. No
marine headlines or hazardous winds and waves are expected
through Thursday, but may return Friday with chances for showers
and storms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light and variable winds under 10 mph will continue today and
Wednesday, with minimum relative humidity values dropping to
around 40 percent this afternoon under hazy skies. Overnight
relative humidity recoveries will remain excellent across the
entire region as lows reach down into the 50s. Low chances for
showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon/night , As high
pressure builds late this week, minimum relative humidity values
will decrease to between 35 and 40 percent on Thursday and
Friday afternoons. The next widespread wetting rain chance
arrives Friday night into Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML