993
FXUS63 KDLH 021757
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions are expected tonight in northwest
  Wisconsin and the Arrowhead.

- Rain is expected Saturday into Saturday evening, especially
  along the International Border.

- Another cold night with subfreezing temperatures expected
  Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Just a few clouds out there along the Canadian Border this
afternoon, but otherwise a very nice and sunny day out there
with high pressure passing through. It`s looking like another
cold night tonight as high pressure migrates east. Parts of
northwest Wisconsin and the tip of the Arrowhead will have a
good chance for frost and freezing temperatures tonight due to
clear skies and light winds. Probabilities for temperatures
below 36 degrees are pretty high (>60%) extending into inland
parts of Bayfield/Sawyer counties, so I expanded the Frost
Advisory west and also added Ashland county to a Freeze Warning.
The window for frost and freezing temperatures will be a bit
less than last night as clouds increase from west to east
tonight ahead of an approaching low and upper-level trough.

On Saturday, expect rain and rain showers through the day as low
pressure passes through. The best chances will be along the
International Border. While thunder isn`t looking likely, there
may be some slight convective elements due to weak instability.
With PWATs hovering around an inch, there could be a few spunky
showers that could drop some locally moderate rainfall amounts.
Most places should see a quarter inch or less, but locally
higher amounts can`t be ruled out. Rain will pass through with
clearing behind a cold front Saturday night.

On Sunday, expect breezy and cool post-frontal weather. There
could be some wraparound clouds and maybe a few sprinkles, but
in general, it`s looking pretty dry out there. Expect breezy
conditions, especially in the Arrowhead, where wind gusts 20-30
mph are expected.

Another area of high pressure settles in Sunday night, and we`re
continuing to expect a pretty widespread freeze out there, or at
least frost. Most inland areas will see temperatures reach into
the 28-32 degree range. Areas near Lake Superior and possibly
around the Brainerd Lakes may be spared a freeze.

On Monday, southerly flow returns and a warming trend with
temperatures is expected. At this point, the forecast is
continuing to trend dry despite passage of a trough sometime
around Tuesday night. We`ll probably see some highs in the 70s
Tuesday and Wednesday, then a drop in temperatures later in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Expect winds to gradually decrease this afternoon from west to
east as high pressure continues to pass through. Winds will be
light and variable this evening with a wind shift to
south/southeasterly. VFR ceilings are expected through the
period. Showers are expected to move in Saturday morning, and
temporary MVFR visibilities will be possible, especially at
INL/HIB.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Winds will continue to gradually decrease this afternoon,
becoming light and variable tonight. Expect rain showers
Saturday into Saturday night. Thunder is not expected at this
time. Some breezy southerly winds develop Saturday, and some
Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the South
Shore, Outer Apostle Islands, and up near Grand Marais. As a
cold front passes through Saturday night, winds become westerly
and eventually northwesterly. Gusty winds are expected going
into Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for
most nearshore waters through Sunday afternoon. Winds will
remain northwesterly through Sunday night, then become light and
variable Monday as high pressure passes through.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Expect dry conditions to persist this afternoon, but light winds
should keep fire weather conditions pretty minimal. A low
pressure system will pass through Saturday into Saturday night,
bringing mainly light rain to the region. Most places will see
less than a quarter inch, but some places mainly along the
International Border could see around or slightly above a
quarter inch. After a cold front passes through Saturday night,
expect another generally dry day Sunday with blustery northwest
winds, especially in the Arrowhead where 20-30 mph gusts are
expected. RH is expected to fall into the 35-50% range, so
perhaps slightly elevated fire weather conditions. Slightly
lower RH values are in the forecast for Monday, but with wind
speeds lighter. A warmup is in store for the middle of next
week. Rain chances are looking sparse. There could be a dry day
or two.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
     MNZ012-021.
WI...Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
     WIZ002-008-009.
     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
     WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ141>143.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS