906
FXUS63 KDLH 161135
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
635 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rain chances this afternoon and tonight. Rain
  amounts should be light, less than a tenth of an inch for most
  areas.

- Another round of rain showers and perhaps a few storms is
  forecast Friday into early Saturday. That system could bring
  an inch or more of rainfall south of a line from near Brainerd
  to Duluth to Bayfield.

- Near-normal high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s for
  the later half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

High pressure was farther west than expected as of 07Z this
morning, centered over southeast Manitoba. Winds remained light
as opposed to being calm over much of the region, which was
limiting our radiational cooling. Hibbing was at 38 degrees,
International Falls was at 41, Cook was at 39, Bigfork was at
40. Dewpoints were largely in the low 40s and upper 30s across
the Northland. Will leave the Frost Advisory in place for this
morning in Koochiching County though I suspect frost will be
hard to come by.

Cloud cover over Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, and western South
Dakota associated with the next wave forecast to affect the
Northland was evident on GOES-East Band 13 imagery early this
morning. Isentropic ascent will spread into northern Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin through the day. Scattered showers will
eventually develop. Rain chances begin late this afternoon and
persist through tonight as the shortwave trough passes over the
region aloft. Rainfall amounts will be relatively light, less
than a tenth of an inch in general with a few spots along and
south of WI-70 in Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties
possibly picking up two tenths. Temperatures today will be
warmest over central Minnesota east into northwest Wisconsin
where cloud cover will arrive near/after peak heating. Highs
will reach the low to middle 60s near the Canadian Border to the
low 70s in portions of northwest Wisconsin.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

Another area of surface high pressure will propagate from the
northern Plains into the Canadian Prairies and northwest
Ontario Thursday. Rain and cloud cover will depart to the east
and south in the wake of today`s shortwave trough. Highs
Thursday will reach the middle 60s north to the middle 70s for
portions of the St. Croix Valley in northwest Wisconsin.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

A more substantive system will move from the central Plains
into the Midwest Friday and Saturday. High pressure will retreat
eastward over Ontario into the Quebec. The waning influence of
the departing high pressure will push dry air aloft southward
over the Northland. Rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
build northward into central Minnesota, the I-35 corridor, and
northwest Wisconsin during the day in response to isentropic
lift north of a surface warm front over southern Minnesota and
southern Wisconsin. The dry air advecting from the north will
undercut the showers and limit the northward extent of
precipitation. It`s likely we will see sharp gradient between
light rain totals and accumulation of more than half an inch.

There remains a 30-80% chance of at least half an inch of rain
generally south of a line from near Walker to Duluth and
including all of northwest Wisconsin. Indicative of the tight
gradient in QPF, the 30% or greater chances of an inch of rain
are not much farther south than the half-inch values. Areas
which have a 30% or greater chance of an inch of rain are south
of a line from Pine River to Moose Lake to Mercer. Values
greater than 80% are south of our area of responsibility. There
is a small area of a 30-60% chance of 2 inches or more which is
south of a line from Sandstone to near Hayward to Park Falls.
The Weather Prediction Center included portions of Pine,
Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties in a Slight Risk
(Level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall. Area stream gauges
revealed a small response from the rainfall on Monday.
Therefore, if there are flash flooding concerns, they will
likely be localized to areas where thunderstorms occur over low-
lying and poor drainage areas. Rain chances taper off from the
pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
from north to south.

Northeast winds over western Lake Superior will strengthen
Friday, weaken slightly late Friday night and early Saturday
morning, and strengthen again Saturday. The combination of wind
and waves will increase the risk of rip currents at the beaches
of the Twin Ports both days.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...

Split flow aloft will propagate eastward over the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. Surface low
pressure is forecast to develop and move through the Midwest
which will bring at least modest rain chances to southern
portions of the Northland. That low pressure will slowly move
eastward and rain chances may persist into Tuesday.

A faster-moving trough is forecast to push into the northern
Plains Tuesday afternoon and move across the Northland
Wednesday. That wave will bring another chance of precipitation
to the region.

Temperatures Sunday will start out a few degrees to the cool
side of the normal range and gradually trend warmer by
Wednesday. Look for highs in the middle to upper 60s Sunday and
the upper 60s to low 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Patchy fog will persist until around 13Z. Expect VFR conditions
with light winds through the forecast. High stratus will move
in from the southwest this afternoon and evening and will bring
light rain showers through the area. INL, BRD, and HYR have the
greatest chances of precipitation. There is a low chance fog
will develop early Thursday morning. As of this morning I
suspect there will be too much cloud cover for anything other
than brief patchy fog. Therefore I left vis reductions out of
the forecast for now.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Winds veer from northerly to easterly today. Wind speeds and
gusts will be strongest in the southwest arm near the Twin Ports
sustained at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Light rain
chances overspread the waters tonight. Thursday`s conditions
appear relatively quiet as high pressure passes overhead. Friday
will see a return of hazardous conditions as high pressure
passes eastward over northern Ontario and surface low pressure
moves across the central Plains into the Midwest. Strong east to
northeast winds are expected and will pose a risk to smaller
vessels. Hazardous conditions are expected at times during the
weekend, mainly afternoons through evening. A pattern of high
pressure moving across Ontario while low pressure tracks east
across the central Plains and Midwest will repeat several times
through early next week. Look for persistent east and northeast
winds which will produce hazardous gusts and waves at times.
There is a small potential for gales to 35 knots near the Outer
Apostle Islands Sunday afternoon (20% chance).

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast.
Afternoon RH values will be lowest over northwest Wisconsin
today with values in the 35 to 50 percent range. Driest
conditions will be in the Pine Barrens and over southern Iron
County. Conditions on the Minnesota side will be mitigated by
clouds building in this afternoon. Minimum RH values of 45 to 60
percent are forecast. There is a chance of light rain which
will spread from west to east during the late afternoon hours
today through tonight. Widespread wetting rain is not expected.
The greatest chance for rain amounts of a tenth of an inch or
more are over northwest Wisconsin. High pressure returns
Thursday with RH values between 40 and 55 percent for most
locations. Rain chances return for areas south of US-2 in
Minnesota and over all of northwest Wisconsin on Friday.
Rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch up to 1.5 inches are
forecast over those areas with lower totals farther north.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Huyck
FIRE WEATHER...Huyck