478
FXUS63 KDLH 271151
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
551 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow is expected to continue today, bringing an additional
  3 to 6 inches to northern Iron County by Friday afternoon. A
  Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Iron County today.

- Lake effect snow is also expected today into tonight in the
  lee of Lake of the Woods. This could bring 1-2" to portions of
  Koochiching County.

- Low pressure moving south of the Northland will bring some light
  snow accumulations this weekend. Highest accumulations are
  most likely over northwest Wisconsin.

- Cold temperatures persist into next week. Sub-zero low
  temperatures early next week could lead to wind chills as low
  as the negative teens on Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Happy Thanksgiving! The vertically-stacked low pressure that brought
widespread accumulating snowfall to the Northland over the past
couple days continues to move downstream this morning. Current
analysis from both the RAP and water vapor imagery shows this low
pressure center well east of Lake Superior and north of Lake Huron.
The deep moisture associated with this low pressure is also
beginning to exit the region. In the wake of this departing low,
widespread stratus and scattered flurries have been occurring as
cyclonic flow aloft continues. In addition, lake effect snow
persists along the South Shore this morning. With webcams and
station observations showing improved visibility, the Blizzard
Warning was cancelled several hours early for Iron and Ashland
Counties.

In place of the Blizzard Warning in Iron County, a Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect today until 6 PM CST. This is due to
continuing lake effect snow accumulating 3 to 6 inches, especially
in the higher elevations of the Penokee Range in northern Iron
County. Northwest flow continuing today is expected to keep most of
the accumulations east of the CWA in Michigan`s U.P. However, with
delta-T remaining extremely favorable around 18-20 degC and lake-
induced CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg, lake effect snow will continue to
impact Iron County today. The latest HREF helps reflects this
potential for additional snowfall, with a 50-60% chance for greater
than 4" of snow assuming the forecasted 19:1 snow-to-liquid ratio.
Expect lake effect snow to begin tapering off on Friday morning as
drier air moves into the area.

While the greatest impact from lake effect snow will be in north-
central WI from Lake Superior, this won`t be the only area seeing
lake effect accumulations in the CWA today into tonight! A subtle
shortwave trough diving south towards the CWA today from northern
Manitoba is expected to help provide the necessary forcing to begin
lake effect snow in the lee of Lake Winnipeg. With the expected
northwest winds today, this moistened airmass will likely then move
over Lake of the Woods and pick up additional moisture as lake-
induced CAPE builds to around 200-300 J/kg. The resulting lake
effect snow will most likely fall along a narrow band in western and
central Koochiching County and to a lesser extent north-central
Itasca County. Total snow amounts by early Friday morning will be
around 1-2". However, there is a small 15% chance that locally
higher amounts up to 4" could occur in Koochiching County.

Friday will see a lull in the pattern with dry conditions very
likely and skies varying between mostly cloudy in the southern CWA
to mostly sunny near the International Border. Temperatures remain
on the cooler side, with highs on Friday in the low to mid 20s. Low
temps on Friday night will be dropping into the single digits to low
teens.

Attention turns towards a deep trough that will be digging across
the Intermountain West late Friday into early Saturday. This trough
is anticipated to develop a Colorado Low and propagate this low
pressure into the Midwest this weekend. Global models are in decent
agreement that the vast majority of snowfall will remain south of
the CWA. However, there is a 50% chance that areas along and south
of the Iron Range will see at least 0.1" of snow from this system.
Highest accumulations on Saturday afternoon into early Sunday
morning will most likely be over northwest Wisconsin, with a 50-70%
chance for 2" or more of snowfall. Probabilities for higher amounts
quickly drop off with an 85% chance or greater that total
accumulations remain below 6" by early Monday morning. The areas to
monitor for highest accumulations will be southern Price County and
the South Shore lake effect snow belts as northerly winds occur.

Beyond this weekend, cooler temperatures are expected to persist
with both high and low temps remaining well below freezing. On
Sunday night into Monday morning, low temperatures are forecast
to drop below zero for much of the CWA. This could lead to wind
chills as low as the negative teens on Monday morning. For snow
chances, global models suggest the potential for a Clipper type
low pressure system arriving sometime around mid next week.
However, large location and timing differences at this time
greatly decrease confidence in impacts. What is much more
certain is that winter weather appears to be sticking around
through the forecast period and likely longer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A mix of MVFR and VFR height cigs are being observed this morning
with scattered flurries. These flurries have largely been falling
with VFR visibility, but visibility has occasionally been MVFR
underneath stronger snow showers. For today, lake effect snow is
expected both in the lee of Lake Superior in Iron County and
downwind of Lake of the Woods. This will largely miss all TAF sites,
but KINL and KHIB could see some lake effect snow from the larger
inland lakes. Northwest winds remain breezy today, easing this
evening into tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 412 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Strong northwest winds continue on the back side of the system that
brought widespread snowfall over the past couple days. Gales
continue early this morning with Gale Warnings remaining in effect
until 6 AM CST. Waves along the South Shore this morning are around
their expected peak of 7 to 10 ft. Winds and waves will be easing
later this morning. However, Small Craft Advisories will be needed
today into Friday morning as strong northwest winds continue and
waves remain above 4 feet in the outer Apostle Islands. Winds will
increase again over the weekend as another low pressure moves
to our south. Chances for gales are low, but Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     WIZ004.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh