794
FXUS63 KDLH 171119
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures are expected the next couple days
  before returning to close to normal over the weekend.

- High pressure today with sunny skies before chances for rain
  return Friday.

- On and off chances for showers and storms continue throughout
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A high pressure sets up over the Northland today, with sunny
skies and light winds. A cold air mass accompanied with the high
pressure will keep temperatures below normal in the low 70s
across the area. As the high pressure departs, flow in the mid
levels will switch to the southwest, helping temperatures to
increase over the weekend into the upper 70s and 80s, closer to
normal.

After the high passes, we settle into zonal westerly flow aloft
for the next few days. Small waves within the flow will lead to
chances for more showers and storms throughout the week. Low
level lapse rates will be more than enough to support convection,
but too much CIN in the mid and upper levels will likely keep
any convection from becoming severe. Moisture will not be as
abundant as it was earlier this week either, with less than a
half inch expected with a small trough through Saturday morning.

Another small ridge will move over the Upper Midwest for
Saturday into Sunday. Southerly flow will once again bring warm
temperatures back up to the Northland for early next week.
Widespread temperatures will be in the 80s and close to 90
across our southern half through mid week.

Chances for showers and storms return early Monday morning with
a warm front and again with a cold front late Tuesday and early
Wednesday. Ingredients point to a supportive environment for
strong to severe storms, except for a lot of CIN in the low to
mid levels. Still, this event will be worth watching as we get
closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Fog will clear at HYR over the next couple hours. After that,
VFR conditions will prevail today, with diurnal cumulus possible
this afternoon around 6000 ft. Winds are expected to be light
first out of the north then transitioning south throughout the
day.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A high pressure system over the area will lead to winds at 10
kts or less and waves less than 1 ft. Shower thunderstorm
chances increase again for western Lake Superior early Friday
through Friday night. No severe storms are expected, though
there may be locally gusty winds and cloud-to-water lightning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML